Valspar Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 14, 2023

We bet the averages when it comes to golf, but because of the nature of the game and the big field of other excellent golfers, quite often those averages don’t work out. Scottie Scheffler is one of the best bets, when you go by the averages, and he was a terrific bet last week at THE PLAYERS Championship with an easy five-stroke win.

The averages at the Valspar Championship, however, would tell you that winning the same tournament twice in a row is a long-shot, so avoid last year’s winner at all cost. But this is where the averages break down. In 2022 Sam Burns won the Valspar Championship exactly one year after first winning the tournament. In 2019 (there was no tournament in 2020) Paul Casey won the Valspar Championship exactly one year after he first won the Valspar Championship by fending off Tiger Woods by a stroke.

So with back-to-back champions two times in a row, who is the next golfer likely to begin his run on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook? And just how likely (or unlikely) is it?

Favorites to Win the Valspar Championship

Justin Thomas (+1000)
Jordan Spieth (+1200)
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1600)
Sam Burns (+1600)
Justin Rose (+2200)
Keegan Bradley (+2200)
Adam Hadwin (+2500)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2500)
Davis Riley (+3300)
Denny McCarthy (+3300)
Dustin Suh (+3300)

Justin Thomas fits the pattern as someone who has never won this tournament before. But he was T3 on this course last year and he did finish fourth in Phoenix. In five starts at Innisbrook he has four top-20 finishes.

Valspar Championship

Jordan Spieth won on this course in 2015, and he just finished T19 at THE PLAYERS. Just a week earlier he was T4 at the Arnold Palmer, and is definitely playing good enough golf to win the Valspar Championship again this weekend.

The aforementioned Sam Burns is the two-time defending champion at this event. Even though his last three events this year are two missed cuts and a T35, he was T11 at the American Express and T6 in Phoenix right before that downturn. He knows this course well, and he’s playing the type of golf in 2023 that could make him a three-time winner.

Keegan Bradley was the runner-up here in 2021, and this season he has a T20 in Phoenix, a T10 at the Arnold Palmer, and he was the runner-up at the Farmers Insurance. Overall he hasn’t been great on this course – the runner-up in 2021 was his lone noteworthy result – but he’s definitely playing well enough to be in the mix come Sunday.

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WagerHome BlogValspar Championship Betting Preview
underdogs

What Underdogs Have a Chance at The Players Championship?

by WagerHome Blog on March 10, 2021

It’s hard to call any of the 154 players who will be at TPC Sawgrass this weekend for The Players Championship underdogs. A record-tying 113 of them are PGA Tour winners, and 10 of them have won this tournament before.

Often called golf’s “fifth major,” the qualifying standards ensure that this is the best field of the year. To get in, you need to win a major or other designated tournament, be ranked in the top 50 in the world, be in the top 10 in FedEx Cup points, or be a leading money winner.

And if that doesn’t fill out the 154-golfer field, the rest of the FedEx Cup list, up to place 125, will be used.

It’s a great field, a tough course, and there are a number of great value bets that might walk away as the champion.

Paul Casey (+4500)

Paul Casey just finished 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite a 2-over-par 74 on Sunday, and he finished in fifth place at Pebble Beach back in February. That followed an eighth-place finish at The American Express in January.

As the 19th-ranked player in the world, +4500 is good value for a hot Casey.

Danny Willett (+35000)

Danny Willett is on our radar because of the big number the oddsmakers have put next to his name. He doesn’t have a great history at Sawgrass with four missed cuts. But +35000 is way too high for a golfer who has a green jacket from Augusta.

Willett is coming off a 31st-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but in truth, he was much better than that. Without a final round 77, he would have finished in the top 20.

Ryan Moore (+27500)

In a field of overachieving golfers, Ryan Moore might be the clearest underdog of the bunch. His 2021 reads missed cut, missed cut, missed cut, tied for 26th. So yeah, Moore isn’t rolling into The Players Championship on a wave of great golf.

underdogs

But the Stadium Course at Sawgrass is unique, knowledge of the course is key, and Moore has logged 46 competitive rounds at The Players. In the last two tournaments here in 2018 and 2019, Moore finished at -8 and -9, which included a top 20 finish and a round of 66, which is just three off the course record.

Is he going to win? It’s highly unlikely. But he’s at his best when he’s playing here, and that potential payoff is too good to resist.

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WagerHome BlogWhat Underdogs Have a Chance at The Players Championship?
the players

Who Will Win The Players Championship?

by WagerHome Blog on March 9, 2021

Other than Pebble Beach and Augusta National, there is no more recognizable American golf course than the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. The 17th hole “island green” is as iconic as any par-3 in the world.

It’s also the site of one of the most competitive tournaments anywhere in the world, The Players Championship. In fact, the Stadium Course was constructed specifically to host this event and its collection of the best golfers in the world.

There was no champion in 2020, as the event was canceled after Hideki Matsuyama tied the course record with a first-round 63. So the current defending champion is 2019 winner Rory McIlroy.

He is one of 10 total Players Champions in the field this weekend, along with 113 total PGA Tour winners, which is tied for the most in any tournament in 21 years.

This field also has 29 of the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings and 49 of the top 50 players in the World Golf Rankings.

This field is stacked.

The Players Championship Favorites

  • Dustin Johnson (+1100)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
  • Jon Rahm (+1600)
  • Xander Schauffele (+2000)
  • Justin Thomas (+2000)
  • Webb Simpson (+2200)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2200)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
  • Tony Finau (+2500)
  • Jordan Spieth (+2500)
  • Viktor Hovland (+2500)

Dustin Johnson is the favorite and the world’s top-ranked player, but he is not one of the 10 players who have won this tournament before. In fact, he’s played in this event 12 times but only finished in the top 10 once, a fifth-place finish in 2019.

Along with his win in 2019, McIlroy has three other top 10 finishes. He is currently ranked eighth in the world and has finished in the top 10 in each of the previous two weeks.

Webb Simpson was the champion here in 2018, but the rest of his history at The Players is checkered. He’s missed the cut four times and finished over par in two other tournaments.

However, he did just finish sixth at the WGC-Workday Championship two weekends ago.

the players

Not on this list, but at +3500, is Matsuyama, who did have that incredible start to the tournament last year before the rest of it was canceled. Matsuyama is ranked 23rd in the world and finished eighth here in 2019 and seventh in 2016.

He hasn’t been in the top 10 in any event since November, but with a good history at Sawgrass, Matsuyama is a good value bet.

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WagerHome BlogWho Will Win The Players Championship?

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