Super Bowl Sunday is upon us, with Super Bowl LV coming up this weekend between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
By this point, you know the lines. The Chiefs are three-point favorites, down from an opening line of 3.5, and the over/under on the game is 56.5. That hasn’t changed since it first opened.
But where is the value? What are the bets, both game and props, that the sharps are betting with a real expectation of making a profit?
Total Points Line (56.5)
At first glance, this feels like an over. You have two great quarterbacks, a ton of speed at wide receiver, and we all remember Tyreek Hill going for over 200 yards in the first quarter of the two teams’ November meeting.
But that game finished 27-24, under the total both then and for Sunday, and it happened because the Chiefs secondary is quite good. And the Buccaneers secondary has improved since then.
Both sets of running backs are healthy and playing well, and they will be much more involved in this game than many people think.
Take the under on 56.5 points scored.
Total Sacks Line (3.5)
Another line that is very enticing on Super Bowl Sunday is the proposition on total sacks. Right now, it’s at 3.5 for the game.
But the Buccaneers are coming off a five-sack performance against a much better and healthier offensive line of Green Bay, and the Chiefs just sacked a far more mobile Josh Allen four times.
These are two very good quarterbacks at avoiding sacks, but it just doesn’t feel like the kind of game where they won’t give up some. Just two each, and the over hits. And two each is on the low side.
Take the over on 3.5 sacks.
Individual Rushing Yards
Rain is in the forecast for Sunday, and if it does end up falling, we should see running backs get the ball more than previously thought.
Darrel Williams of the Chiefs is at 28.5 yards rushing in the game.
He shares carries with Clyde Edwards-Helaire, but Williams is the hot hand here, going for 78 and 52 in the Chiefs’ two playoff victories. It’s hard to find a scenario where he regresses to 28 or less.
Take the over on Williams 28.5 yards rushing.
For Tampa Bay, the good play is on Ronald Jones II. Leonard Fournette has been the guy of late, averaging 70 yards rushing in the playoffs.
Jones has almost become an afterthought, running for just 16 yards in the NFC Championship Game. But he went over 100 yards four times in 2020 and averaged 7.3 per carry against the Chiefs.
The line is just 36.5 yards on Jones, and against Kansas City, that feels too low. Take the over on Jones 36.5 yards rushing.
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