What Underdogs Have a Chance at The Players Championship?

by WagerHome Blog on March 10, 2021

It’s hard to call any of the 154 players who will be at TPC Sawgrass this weekend for The Players Championship underdogs. A record-tying 113 of them are PGA Tour winners, and 10 of them have won this tournament before.

Often called golf’s “fifth major,” the qualifying standards ensure that this is the best field of the year. To get in, you need to win a major or other designated tournament, be ranked in the top 50 in the world, be in the top 10 in FedEx Cup points, or be a leading money winner.

And if that doesn’t fill out the 154-golfer field, the rest of the FedEx Cup list, up to place 125, will be used.

It’s a great field, a tough course, and there are a number of great value bets that might walk away as the champion.

Paul Casey (+4500)

Paul Casey just finished 10th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite a 2-over-par 74 on Sunday, and he finished in fifth place at Pebble Beach back in February. That followed an eighth-place finish at The American Express in January.

As the 19th-ranked player in the world, +4500 is good value for a hot Casey.

Danny Willett (+35000)

Danny Willett is on our radar because of the big number the oddsmakers have put next to his name. He doesn’t have a great history at Sawgrass with four missed cuts. But +35000 is way too high for a golfer who has a green jacket from Augusta.

Willett is coming off a 31st-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but in truth, he was much better than that. Without a final round 77, he would have finished in the top 20.

Ryan Moore (+27500)

In a field of overachieving golfers, Ryan Moore might be the clearest underdog of the bunch. His 2021 reads missed cut, missed cut, missed cut, tied for 26th. So yeah, Moore isn’t rolling into The Players Championship on a wave of great golf.

underdogs

But the Stadium Course at Sawgrass is unique, knowledge of the course is key, and Moore has logged 46 competitive rounds at The Players. In the last two tournaments here in 2018 and 2019, Moore finished at -8 and -9, which included a top 20 finish and a round of 66, which is just three off the course record.

Is he going to win? It’s highly unlikely. But he’s at his best when he’s playing here, and that potential payoff is too good to resist.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogWhat Underdogs Have a Chance at The Players Championship?

Who Will Win The Players Championship?

by WagerHome Blog on March 9, 2021

Other than Pebble Beach and Augusta National, there is no more recognizable American golf course than the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. The 17th hole “island green” is as iconic as any par-3 in the world.

It’s also the site of one of the most competitive tournaments anywhere in the world, The Players Championship. In fact, the Stadium Course was constructed specifically to host this event and its collection of the best golfers in the world.

There was no champion in 2020, as the event was canceled after Hideki Matsuyama tied the course record with a first-round 63. So the current defending champion is 2019 winner Rory McIlroy.

He is one of 10 total Players Champions in the field this weekend, along with 113 total PGA Tour winners, which is tied for the most in any tournament in 21 years.

This field also has 29 of the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings and 49 of the top 50 players in the World Golf Rankings.

This field is stacked.

The Players Championship Favorites

  • Dustin Johnson (+1100)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)
  • Jon Rahm (+1600)
  • Xander Schauffele (+2000)
  • Justin Thomas (+2000)
  • Webb Simpson (+2200)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2200)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
  • Tony Finau (+2500)
  • Jordan Spieth (+2500)
  • Viktor Hovland (+2500)

Dustin Johnson is the favorite and the world’s top-ranked player, but he is not one of the 10 players who have won this tournament before. In fact, he’s played in this event 12 times but only finished in the top 10 once, a fifth-place finish in 2019.

Along with his win in 2019, McIlroy has three other top 10 finishes. He is currently ranked eighth in the world and has finished in the top 10 in each of the previous two weeks.

Webb Simpson was the champion here in 2018, but the rest of his history at The Players is checkered. He’s missed the cut four times and finished over par in two other tournaments.

However, he did just finish sixth at the WGC-Workday Championship two weekends ago.

the players

Not on this list, but at +3500, is Matsuyama, who did have that incredible start to the tournament last year before the rest of it was canceled. Matsuyama is ranked 23rd in the world and finished eighth here in 2019 and seventh in 2016.

He hasn’t been in the top 10 in any event since November, but with a good history at Sawgrass, Matsuyama is a good value bet.

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WagerHome BlogWho Will Win The Players Championship?

2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 3, 2021

The world has now come full circle in the last year. In 2020, the Arnold Palmer Invitational was the final PGA tournament to be completed before the season was put on a three-month hiatus because of the coronavirus pandemic.

It’s an ignominious anniversary, to be sure, and not one worth celebrating. But what is worth noting is how well the PGA Tour rebounded and how this season, despite the restrictions that remain in place, has gotten off to a great start.

Collin Morikawa, the winner of the PGA Championship a year ago, came out on top at Sunday’s final round of the WGC-Workday Championship. The final round was highlighted by tributes to Tiger Woods, including a number of players who wore Tiger’s signature Sunday red and black.
The Tour now moves to Orlando and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Favorites to Win

  • Rory McIlroy (+800)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1200)
  • Viktor Hovland (+1200)
  • Tyrrell Hatton (+1600)
  • Patrick Reed (+2000)
  • Sungjae Im (+2000)
  • Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2200)
  • Paul Casey (+2800)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)
  • Francesco Molinari (+2800)
  • Jordan Spieth (+3000)

If last season was any indication, this is a tournament that will be won by those who make the most out of bad shots. The Bay Hill course played at 2-over-par 74 in 2020 – the highest scoring average for a non-major in four years. So it’s not going to come down to who hits the greens, but who does the best when they don’t hit the greens.

That’s why you see Rory McIlroy’s name at the top of the favorites list. He was the 2018 champion here, and he knows how to play this course. And play it well, even when the winds are up, as they were in 2020.

Tyrrell Hatton was the winner at Bay Hill in 2020. He didn’t hit many fairways, but the Englishman is a scrambler, and it makes him another solid bet to do well in 2021. For what it’s worth, the early forecast calls for rain on Saturday, so Hatton will once again feel right at home.

arnold palmer invitational

Francesco Molinari is a great value play at +2800. He won this tournament in 2019 but wasn’t around in 2020 to defend his title because of a back injury. He has 28 career rounds at Bay Hill and has the fourth-best aggregate score in the field. He also just finished inside the top 10 at the Genesis Invitational two weeks ago.

Also, take a look at Jordan Speith at +3000. He has top five finishes at Phoenix and Pebble Beach in 2021 and is making his first-ever appearance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

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WagerHome Blog2021 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

Betting Favorites to Win 2021 Genesis Invitational

by WagerHome Blog on February 17, 2021

After a Pebble Beach Pro-Am (minus the amateurs) that had a relatively weak field, in that none of the world’s Top 10 players were in attendance, this weekend’s Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades features a packed lineup of superstars.

Seven of the world’s top 10 players are in the field, including, in order of ranking, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Bryson DeChambeau. This group includes the reigning FedEx Cup champion in Johnson and the winners of all three majors that were played in 2020 – Johnson (Masters), Morikawa (PGA), and DeChambeau (U.S. Open).

We’ve also got an impressive 19 former Riviera champions in the field, making this one of the most competitive non-major tournaments in golf we’ll see this year.

Favorites to Win Genesis Invitational

  • Dustin Johnson (+550)
  • Jon Rahm (+1200)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1200)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1200)
  • Justin Thomas (+1400)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1600)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+1600)
  • Brooks Koepka (+2200)
  • Tony Finau (+2500)
  • Daniel Berger (+2800)

Johnson was a winner here in 2017, and the world’s No. 1 ranked player is the favorite to win again. DeChambeau, who hasn’t played in more than six weeks, finished tied for fifth here last year with four rounds under par.

Riviera is known for its small greens, so being a heavy hitter isn’t the most important attribute. But he obviously handled the course well in 2020.

Another notable favorite on this board is Patrick Cantlay, who just finished tied for third at Pebble Beach. The winner of Pebble Beach, Daniel Berger, rounds out the top 10 at Riviera, paying +2800 to be a back-to-back PGA Tour winner.

Other Solid Bets

Bubba Watson is a three-time winner at Riviera – 2014, 2016, and 2018 – and is paying +4000 in 2021. His every-other-year win streak was broken here in 2020, but he obviously has a game that is built for this course.

Last year’s winning 72 holes at the Genesis Invitational from Adam Scott was a repeat of his victory here 15 years earlier, though his win in 2005 was unofficial since it came on just 36 holes. He is paying +3300.

California native Rickie Fowler is back at Riviera for the first time since 2014. He’s all the way down at +10000.

genesis invitational

Jordan Speith, who just missed his first PGA Tour win since 2017 at Pebble Beach, where he led at 36 and 54 holes, is paying +3000.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogBetting Favorites to Win 2021 Genesis Invitational

PGA Wyndham Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 11, 2020

The dust has settled on the first major of the year, the PGA Championship, and the impressive victory by Collin Morikawa. Fun fact about the 23-year-old Morikawa: Since he turned pro 14 months ago, Morikawa has won $6,898,977 in on-course winnings. That buys a lot of golf balls.

Morikawa takes the week off as the PGA Tour shits coasts for the 2020 Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, NC. But even without the latest star of the PGA on location, this is still an excellent field with four of the top 10 players in the FedEx Cup standings in attendance.

Wyndham Odds

These are the opening odds to Win, finish Top 5, and finish Top 10.

To Win

  • Webb Simpson +1100
  • Brooks Koepka +1200
  • Paul Casey +1600
  • Patrick Reed +1600
  • Tommy Fleetwood +2000
  • Justin Rose +2200
  • Harris English +2800
  • Billy Horschel +3500
  • Jordan Spieth +3500
  • Brendon Todd +3500

Finish Top 5

  • Webb Simpson +330
  • Brooks Koepka +335
  • Paul Casey +400
  • Patrick Reed +400
  • Tommy Fleetwood +500
  • Justin Rose +500
  • Harris English +650
  • Billy Horschel +750
  • Jordan Spieth +750
  • Brendon Todd +750

Finish Top 10

  • Webb Simpson +160
  • Brooks Koepka +163
  • Paul Casey +200
  • Patrick Reed +200
  • Tommy Fleetwood +250
  • Justin Rose +275
  • Harris English +350
  • Billy Horschel +450
  • Jordan Spieth +450
  • Brendon Todd +450

Webb Simpson tops the favorites board for several good reasons. His first-ever Tour victory came on this course in 2011. In each of the last three years at this event, he’s finished no worse than tied for third.

He’s from North Carolina, played college golf at Wake Forest, and has a daughter named Wyndham. How could he not be the favorite?

Other favorites to either win or finish in the Top 5 are Brooks Koepka (of course), Patrick Reed (a winner here in 2013), and Paul Casey (who just came up short at the PGA over the weekend).

Other Golfers to Watch

The favorites are at the top of the odds board for a reason, but there are some more valuable plays worth keeping an eye on.

pga

Si Woo Kim is on the board at +4200 to win. It was just four years ago that he cruised to a five-shot victory at this event, his first-ever Tour win. He’s a Top 10 play at +500.

Brendon Todd has two wins this season, three straight top-25 finishes, and twice in his last five starts went into Sunday with the lead. If he can put together a good final round, that +750 Top 5 finish looks like a solid play.

Last year’s winner here is J.T. Poston, who memorably won without making a single bogey. He’s had a pair of top-10 finishes since the Tour restart and is posting a Top 10 betting number of +750. You want to get crazy and go for the repeat? That pays a cool +7000.

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WagerHome BlogPGA Wyndham Championship Betting Preview

The Memorial PGA Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 14, 2020

The PGA Tour has been back for more than a month, and fans have been treated to some of the most competitive golf in years. But something’s been missing. As good as it’s been, there is just one more thing that could make this golf even better.

Tiger Woods.

Not only is Tiger playing in his first tournament since February, but The Memorial is easily one of his favorite tournaments. He’s won on the Jack Nicklaus-designed course a record five times and finished top-10 a total of nine times.

Packed Field

Of course, Tiger isn’t the only top golfer playing this weekend. This loaded field features each of the top nine players in the world, with Brooks Koepka being a late addition in the week.

Overall, 26 of the 30 golfers who played in last year’s Tour Championship are playing this weekend, which is the most since the tour restarted play in June. And along with Woods and his five wins are the 2018 champion – Bryson DeChambeau – and the current defending champion – Patrick Cantlay.

With a win at Muirfield in 2018 and four top-10 finishes in four starts since the PGA resumed in June, DeChambeau comes into The Memorial as the favorite.

Odds on the field:

  • Bryson DeChambeau +1000
  • Justin Thomas +1100
  • Rory McIlroy +1400
  • Patrick Cantlay +1400
  • Dustin Johnson +1600
  • Viktor Hovland +2200
  • Jon Rahm +2200
  • Collin Morikawa +2200
  • Hideki Matsuyama +2500
  • Brooks Koepka +2500
  • Webb Simpson +2800
  • Xander Schauffele +2800
  • Tiger Woods +2800

Bets to Watch

It’s a rare confluence of events to have the previous tournament also take place at Muirfield. How that will influence the scoring at The Memorial – which will play a little shorter, but with thicker rough – remains to be seen. But Collin Morikawa just came away a winner on this course last weekend, and at +2200, he might be worth the value.

pga

It’s tempting to jump on Tiger as a five-time champion at +2800. But it is worth remembering that despite his great history at The Memorial, he last won here in 2012. And other than his charity round with Phil Mickelson, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning, he hasn’t played competitively since February.

Because of the way this event plays, approach shots are more important than driving. One name that stands out when considering strokes gained on approach and quality approach shots is Webb Simpson. He is one of the best in the world, and great value at +2800.

Pay Per Head

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WagerHome BlogThe Memorial PGA Betting Preview

PGA Workday Charity Open Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 7, 2020

When you began this week looking ahead at the upcoming sports betting calendar, you probably didn’t recognize the PGA Tour stop called the Workday Charity Open. That’s because it is a first-year replacement for the John Deere Classic that was canceled due to the coronavirus.

The John Deere Classic will return next year, but for this week, the Workday Charity Open should definitely be on your radar.

Played on the same course, Muirfield Village Golf Course, as The Memorial – which will follow next week – this event will feature three of the top five players in the world, including the return of Brooks Koepka, who withdrew from the Travelers Championship after his caddie tested positive for COVID-19.

The Odds

After his incredible performance over the weekend in which he finished first in driving distance, first in putting, and first on the leaderboard, Bryson DeChambeau is going to sit this weekend out. He won The Memorial in 2018 and will return to the field for that event on July 16.

This week he likely would have been the odds-on favorite, had he decided to play. So with DeChambeau out, here is how the favorites shake out.

  • Justin Thomas +1100
  • Patrick Cantlay +1400
  • Hideki Matsuyama +1600
  • Jon Rahm +1600
  • Brooks Koepka +1600
  • Xander Schauffele +1800
  • Viktor Hovland +2200
  • Justin Rose +2200
  • Patrick Reed +3000
  • Rickie Fowler +3000

Patrick Cantlay won at Muirfield last year. For The Memorial, this course runs a bit shorter and with higher rough. But even with the slight changes to the course for this tournament, Cantlay is an obvious top pick.

Justin Thomas, the top name on this list, has a pair of top-10 finishes since golf resumed in June.

pga

Hideki Matsuyama is the surprise on this list. Ranked 23rd in the world, he’s played in two PGA Tour events since play resumed. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and finished tied for 21st at last weekend’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, though he did finish sixth at The Memorial last year.

Bookmaker’s Advantage

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WagerHome BlogPGA Workday Charity Open Betting Preview

PGA Tour Travelers Championship Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on June 23, 2020

If there ever was a silver lining to COVID-19 and three months without golf, it is this: Each of these first tournaments the PGA Tour has had since returning has had the best fields we’ve ever seen competing outside a major championship.

Everyone was chomping at the bit to get back to golf, and the return has been everything you could hope for. Last weekend at the RBC Heritage, Webb Simpson, the fifth-ranked player in the world, birdied five of his last seven holes to take a one-shot victory and set a course record at -22.

It was another great week of golf and another terrific ending. And this coming weekend at the Travelers should see the great play continue.

Stacked Field

Normally, the Travelers Championship suffers by being played the week after the U.S. Open. With the top golfers always showing up there, many of them skip the event at TPC Highlands the following week.

Not this time, as nine of the top 10 players are in the field, 15 of the top 20, and the winners of 25 total major championships.

The top odds in the field are:

  • Rory McIlroy +1200
  • Justin Thomas +1200
  • Bryson DeChambeau +1400
  • Webb Simpson +1800
  • Brooks Koepka +2000
  • Jon Rahm +2200
  • Justin Rose +2200
  • Patrick Cantlay +2200
  • Daniel Berger +2200
  • Dustin Johnson +2800
  • Xander Schauffele +3000
  • Bubba Watson +3000

Out of another great field, there are a couple of players that you specifically need to keep an eye on. Bubba Watson won the Travelers in 2010, 2015, and 2018. He loves this course and knows this course, and he should be higher than +3000. That is a really good bet.

When making any prop bets, you need to know that this course is also prone to give up great scores. Jim Furyk once shot a 58 here. Phil Mickelson shot a 61. The 72-hole course record is -22, held by Kenny Perry.

Last year’s winner, Chez Reavie, shot a back-nine 28 on his way to a four-stroke win. Reavie has opened at +12500 for the tournament this week and might be worth a small bet at those odds, considering his recent history here.

pga

Others to Watch

Along with the favorites and recent Travelers champions, there are some other names worth watching this weekend.

Sergio Garcia (+4500) just shot -19 at Hilton Head and finished just three strokes off the leader.

Dylan Frittelli (+17500) is a longshot this weekend, but he finished last weekend with an impressive 62 on Sunday. If not for his 71 on Saturday, he would have been in the mix at the end.

Keep an eye on Abraham Ancer (+4000). He just finished second, had three rounds of 65 or lower, and has now climbed into the top 25 World Golf Rankings.

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WagerHome BlogPGA Tour Travelers Championship Betting Picks

PGA Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on June 9, 2020

The PGA Tour returns this week at Colonial in Fort Worth, Texas, and after such a long layoff, it’s impossible to know exactly what to expect from the golfers as they return to the course without fans. But what we do know is that we can expect some incredible golf.

Because this is the first tournament back since the PGA suspended the season before The Players Championship on March 12, for the first time in the 74 years they’ve been playing golf at Colonial, the top five players in the world will all be competing.

Stacked Field

According to the Official World Golf Rankings, the Charles Schwab Challenge will feature the best five golfers in the world.

  • Rory McIlroy +750
  • Jon Rahm +1000
  • Brooks Koepka +2200
  • Justin Thomas +1400
  • Dustin Johnson +2800

Of course, the two golfers who most recently played in a competition were Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods, as they teed it up in The Match: Champions for Charity. But oddsmakers don’t see that round in May having any influence on what happens this weekend.

Phil is +12500 to win, and Tiger isn’t playing. He hasn’t played at Colonial since 1997, so his absence is not unexpected.

The Rest of the Top 20

Altogether, 16 of the top 20 golfers in the world will be competing this weekend. The other 11 in attendance are (by world ranking):

  • Patrick Reed +2800
  • Webb Simpson +2000
  • Xander Schauffele +2500
  • Bryson DeChambeau +2200
  • Justin Rose +4500
  • Marc Leishman +4000
  • Tony Finau +4000
  • Matt Kuchar +4000
  • Gary Woodland +5000
  • Louis Oosthuizen +6600
  • Shane Lowry +6600

pga

The tour’s most recent winner, Tyrrell Hatton, is not in the field this week. But the winner before him, Sungjae Im, is. He won the Honda Classic with an impressive -4 (66) in the fourth round on March 1.

The Korean is currently ranked 23rd in the world and is listed at +3300 to win this week in Fort Worth.

Prop Bets of Note

Winning Margin

  • One Stroke +225
  • Two Strokes +350
  • Three Strokes +550
  • Four Strokes or More +275
  • Playoff +400

Hole-In-One in Tournament

  • Yes -150
  • No +110
  • Rory McIlroy Hole in One +6600

One other prop bet to watch. The last time out, both Justin Rose and Tony Finau missed the cut. The odds on them making the cut this week are:

  • Justin Rose Yes (-225)/No (+165)
  • Tony Finau Yes (-265)/No (+188)

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WagerHome BlogPGA Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview