BMW Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 25, 2020

The PGA Tour moves on to the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, and the field for the BMW Championship at Olympia Fields Country Club just outside of Chicago is as much about who is in it as who is not.

Failing to qualify last weekend at the Northern Trust were Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, 2019 British Open champion Shane Lowry, and 2015 FedEx Cup winner Jordan Spieth. Those guys alone would make quite a field.

But not to worry. The field that did move on in the playoffs is quite impressive, and they present several great betting options this coming weekend.

The BMW Championship Favorites

The field is at 70, which will be reduced to 30 after this tournament, and these are who the bookmakers think are most likely to win this weekend’s no-cut tournament.

  • Dustin Johnson (+700)
  • Jon Rahm (+950)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+1100)
  • Justin Thomas (+1200)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1600)
  • Webb Simpson (+1800)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1800)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2000)
  • Daniel Berger (+2000)
  • Jason Day (+2900)
  • Patrick Reed (+2900)
  • Tony Finau (+2900)

Dustin Johnson as the favorite is the no-brainer of no-brainers. At the Northern Trust, he lapped the field, winning by an eye-popping 11 strokes. It was the largest margin of victory on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson won by 13 shots in 2006.

This is a course-rotating tournament, so we don’t put too much weight on past champions. But for the record, the uber-hot Johnson did win the BMW Championship in 2016. Johnson is now back to No. 1 in the world.

Rory McIlroy has five career wins at FedEx Cup events – tied with Johnson for most ever – and at +2000, he presents an intriguing number.

The wild card here is Collin Morikawa. The PGA Championship winner went into last weekend ranked second in the FedEx Cup standings, but shockingly missed the cut for only the second time in his young career. A week ago, his +2000 would have been great value. Now it’s a bit up in the air.

Other Golfers to Watch

No matter how he is playing, Tiger Woods always has eyes on him. He’s in the midst of four tournaments in five weeks and comes in at +3100 for this weekend.

bmw championship

Louis Oosthuizen was the last man to make the BMW field, moving up from 99th to 70th and qualifying with a birdie on the 72nd hole. He’s +5000 in this one.

Jim Herman, on the back of his surprising win at the Wyndham Championship, is in the field and plays the longest odds at +42000.

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WagerHome BlogBMW Championship Betting Preview

The PGA Northern Trust Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 18, 2020

The PGA Tour’s Northern Trust is upon us, and apart from being another weekend of great golf in which you can wager, it’s the start of the FedEx Cup playoffs. There are 125 golfers this weekend.

The top 70 will advance to the BMW Championship in Chicago next week. Then, it will be the top 30 at the TOUR Championship the following week in Atlanta.

Justin Thomas is the current FedEx Cup points leader, and a win in Atlanta would make him just the third golfer to win the Cup more than once.

Northern Trust Odds

Before we get to Chicago and then Atlanta, the Tour is at TPC Boston for The Northern Trust – which began as the Westchester Classic in 1967.

The top of the favorites board looks like this:

  • Bryson Dechambeau (+1200)
  • Justin Thomas (+1200)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400)
  • Jon Rahm (+1600)
  • Dustin Johnson (+1800)
  • Xander Schauffele (+2000)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2200)
  • Jason Day (+2500)
  • Brooks Koepka (+3000)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+3000)
  • Patrick Reed (+3000)
  • Webb Simpson (+3000)

Patrick Reed at +3000 is an interesting play here. He won this tournament in 2019 and just finished up the Wyndham with a 64 on Sunday.

This is a different course than last year, so the defending champion tag has a little cachet. But he’s a hot golfer paying a big number, and that’s worth your attention.

The last time we saw Collin Morikawa, he was winning the PGA Championship. He’s too good and too hot to be the seventh most likely golfer to win the Northern Trust. His +2200 feels like much better value than the +1200 on Bryson Dechambeau.

northern trust

Not listed among the favorites, but someone that needs consideration, is Tyrell Hatton at +5500. Because he was stuck in England for a bit, he’s only played in four tournaments since the season restarted. But two of those four starts ended in top five finishes.

Shock the World Part II

If you were one of the lucky few who put money down on Jim Herman to win the Wyndham Championship at +75000, congratulations. The price of success is that Herman is down to a +25000 play at the Northern Trust.

It’s hard to recommend him as a play. He has missed 11 cuts this season. But if you’re going to roll the dice on a true longshot, the guy who just Sunday had golf fans asking, “Who is Jim Herman?” is as good a risk as any.

But seriously. Don’t. He’s not going to win again. Probably.

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WagerHome BlogThe PGA Northern Trust Betting Preview

PGA Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on August 4, 2020

It’s finally here – the first major championship of the PGA season, this weekend’s PGA Championship. By this time in 2019, we’d already crowned the champion of all four majors.

Instead, a COVID-19 postponement of The Masters and the U.S. Open, and the cancellation of The Open Championship has the PGA Championship giving out the first major hardware of 2020, and golf fans and bettors could not be more ready.

Odds to Win Outright

We’ve seen some wonderfully packed fields over the last several weeks of play, so it’s not that the play will be much different this weekend. But the major tournament stakes are something we haven’t seen in golf in more than 55 weeks – the longest absence of major golf since 1944.

Your favorites to win this weekend at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco are:

  • Rory McIlroy +800
  • Brooks Koepka +1000
  • Bryson Dechambeau +1100
  • Dustin Johnson +1200
  • Justin Thomas +1200
  • Jon Rahm +1300
  • Tiger Woods +1600
  • Xander Schauffele +2200
  • Patrick Cantlay +2500
  • Webb Simpson +2500
  • Hideki Matsuyama +2800
  • Collin Morikawa +2800
  • Justin Rose +3000

Rory McIlroy remains the consensus best player in the world, so it’s not surprising that he’s the favorite in most fields. But Brooks Koepka was the winner in both 2018 and 2019, and he just finished in second at the St. Jude Invitational in Memphis over the weekend.

In the history of golf, dating back to 1860, only six times has a major championship been won by the same golfer three consecutive years. The last was Peter Thomsen at The Open in 1956. Will Koepka become the seventh?

Golfers to Watch

Justin Thomas (+1200) was the winner at WGC St. Jude last weekend and has returned to the top of the world golf rankings.

pga championship

Tiger Woods (+1600) is a four-time winner of the PGA but finished tied for 40th in the only tournament he’s played since the season restarted. A bet on him at +1600 is on reputation alone, and not on actual golf.

In terms of value plays, Webb Simpson (+2500) and Collin Morikawa (+2800) make for better bets than Woods. Simpson won the RBC Heritage and is the fourth-ranked golfer in the world. Morikawa won the Workday Charity Open three weeks ago and is currently ranked 12th in the world.

At +800, McIlroy has far less value. However, it is worth noting that the 2015 WGC Match Play was held at this same course in San Francisco, and McIlroy won.

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WagerHome BlogPGA Championship Betting Preview

PGA Workday Charity Open Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on July 7, 2020

When you began this week looking ahead at the upcoming sports betting calendar, you probably didn’t recognize the PGA Tour stop called the Workday Charity Open. That’s because it is a first-year replacement for the John Deere Classic that was canceled due to the coronavirus.

The John Deere Classic will return next year, but for this week, the Workday Charity Open should definitely be on your radar.

Played on the same course, Muirfield Village Golf Course, as The Memorial – which will follow next week – this event will feature three of the top five players in the world, including the return of Brooks Koepka, who withdrew from the Travelers Championship after his caddie tested positive for COVID-19.

The Odds

After his incredible performance over the weekend in which he finished first in driving distance, first in putting, and first on the leaderboard, Bryson DeChambeau is going to sit this weekend out. He won The Memorial in 2018 and will return to the field for that event on July 16.

This week he likely would have been the odds-on favorite, had he decided to play. So with DeChambeau out, here is how the favorites shake out.

  • Justin Thomas +1100
  • Patrick Cantlay +1400
  • Hideki Matsuyama +1600
  • Jon Rahm +1600
  • Brooks Koepka +1600
  • Xander Schauffele +1800
  • Viktor Hovland +2200
  • Justin Rose +2200
  • Patrick Reed +3000
  • Rickie Fowler +3000

Patrick Cantlay won at Muirfield last year. For The Memorial, this course runs a bit shorter and with higher rough. But even with the slight changes to the course for this tournament, Cantlay is an obvious top pick.

Justin Thomas, the top name on this list, has a pair of top-10 finishes since golf resumed in June.

pga

Hideki Matsuyama is the surprise on this list. Ranked 23rd in the world, he’s played in two PGA Tour events since play resumed. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage and finished tied for 21st at last weekend’s Rocket Mortgage Classic, though he did finish sixth at The Memorial last year.

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WagerHome BlogPGA Workday Charity Open Betting Preview

PGA Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on June 9, 2020

The PGA Tour returns this week at Colonial in Fort Worth, Texas, and after such a long layoff, it’s impossible to know exactly what to expect from the golfers as they return to the course without fans. But what we do know is that we can expect some incredible golf.

Because this is the first tournament back since the PGA suspended the season before The Players Championship on March 12, for the first time in the 74 years they’ve been playing golf at Colonial, the top five players in the world will all be competing.

Stacked Field

According to the Official World Golf Rankings, the Charles Schwab Challenge will feature the best five golfers in the world.

  • Rory McIlroy +750
  • Jon Rahm +1000
  • Brooks Koepka +2200
  • Justin Thomas +1400
  • Dustin Johnson +2800

Of course, the two golfers who most recently played in a competition were Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods, as they teed it up in The Match: Champions for Charity. But oddsmakers don’t see that round in May having any influence on what happens this weekend.

Phil is +12500 to win, and Tiger isn’t playing. He hasn’t played at Colonial since 1997, so his absence is not unexpected.

The Rest of the Top 20

Altogether, 16 of the top 20 golfers in the world will be competing this weekend. The other 11 in attendance are (by world ranking):

  • Patrick Reed +2800
  • Webb Simpson +2000
  • Xander Schauffele +2500
  • Bryson DeChambeau +2200
  • Justin Rose +4500
  • Marc Leishman +4000
  • Tony Finau +4000
  • Matt Kuchar +4000
  • Gary Woodland +5000
  • Louis Oosthuizen +6600
  • Shane Lowry +6600

pga

The tour’s most recent winner, Tyrrell Hatton, is not in the field this week. But the winner before him, Sungjae Im, is. He won the Honda Classic with an impressive -4 (66) in the fourth round on March 1.

The Korean is currently ranked 23rd in the world and is listed at +3300 to win this week in Fort Worth.

Prop Bets of Note

Winning Margin

  • One Stroke +225
  • Two Strokes +350
  • Three Strokes +550
  • Four Strokes or More +275
  • Playoff +400

Hole-In-One in Tournament

  • Yes -150
  • No +110
  • Rory McIlroy Hole in One +6600

One other prop bet to watch. The last time out, both Justin Rose and Tony Finau missed the cut. The odds on them making the cut this week are:

  • Justin Rose Yes (-225)/No (+165)
  • Tony Finau Yes (-265)/No (+188)

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WagerHome BlogPGA Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview