nfl best bets

NFL Best Bets for Week 6

by WagerHome Blog on October 15, 2020

Week 5 of the NFL season extended its way through Tuesday for just the second time in 70 years. We’re down to five unbeaten teams, while only three teams remain winless.

And we got one quarterback who heroically worked his way back to the field in Washington’s Alex Smith, while another in Dallas’ Dak Prescott is starting his journey on the same road to recovery after a Week 5 injury.

What does Week 6 have in store for NFL fans, and where should the smart bettor put their money? Let’s take a look at our NFL best bets.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

These are not your father’s Cleveland Browns, but they are your grandfather’s. For the first time since Bill Belichick was their head coach, the Browns are 4-1, and it’s a solid 4-1. They have legitimate playmakers on both sides of the ball and are right to be thinking playoffs.

They haven’t won in Pittsburgh since the stone age, and they may not win here – the Steelers are one of those remaining unbeatens. But look for Cleveland to keep the final margin to within a field goal.

Cincinnati Bengals (+8) at Indianapolis Colts

Rookie growing pains aside, Joe Burrow is showing himself to be a capable quarterback in Cincinnati. And while the record doesn’t show it, with just one win in five games, the competitiveness of each game does.

The Bengals lost by three, lost by five, tied, and won by eight. (We don’t count the big loss to Baltimore because the Ravens do that to everyone.)

Philip Rivers is good for a turnover, and the Colts have been too up and down to justify such a big spread. Look for the Bengals to keep this within a touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

If not for a pair of games against the two winless teams from New Jersey, the 49ers would be winless themselves. Along with the other injuries they’ve suffered, suddenly they don’t have a reliable quarterback, with Jimmy Garoppolo getting benched in last week’s embarrassment against the Dolphins.

The Rams have scored 30 points in three of their last four games. They’ll do it again this week and will easily cover against their division rivals.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Over 54.5)

A good backup quarterback can save a season, and it just might do that in Dallas. Prescott is done for the year, but Andy Dalton is very good when he has weapons, and he definitely has them in Dallas.

nfl best bets

The problem in Big D is the lack of any meaningful defense, which is giving up an average of 40 points per game in the last four weeks. The Cardinals will score, and score often, and score again.

Anything could happen with who wins this game, but offense is guaranteed. This game will go over 54.5 with plenty of room to spare.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Best Bets for Week 6
week 4 best bets

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on October 1, 2020

The NFL is in full swing, so we’re taking a look at some of the Week 4 best bets for you to make.

Scoring is up around the league. We just had our first big showdown of the season when the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens played on Monday.

We’re getting MVP and record-breaking performances out of Russell Wilson each week. Josh Allen has been a revelation in Buffalo. The Chicago Bears are undefeated, as are the Pittsburgh Steelers with the return of Ben Roethlisberger.

So many great stories in this young NFL season. And so many great opportunities to cash in on wagers in Week 4.

Baltimore Ravens (-12.5) at Washington Football Team

The Ravens still fancy themselves the best team in the AFC, and they are going to be angry when they take the short trip to Washington. Lamar Jackson was completely bottled up by Kansas City, but that will not happen two weeks in a row.

Add in the fact that Dwayne Haskins is coming off a three-interception performance, and now he’ll face one of the best secondaries in football, and this has the makings of a blowout. Baltimore will win by more than two touchdowns, covering the spread.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have struggled to stop anyone with their defense, and now the Bills come to town with Josh Allen playing like a quarterback reborn. The Raiders are giving up 30 points per game, and Allen and company will easily eclipse that number in Las Vegas.

The Raiders and Derek Carr simply don’t have enough to keep up. Buffalo pulls away in the end, winning by at least a touchdown and covering the three-point spread.

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Break up the Cleveland Browns, who are over .500 for the first time since 2014. And they are doing it with the best backfield in the entire NFL, with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Dallas defense is an absolute mess right now, even with the play of Aldon Smith.

week 4 best bets

The Cowboys will score plenty in his game, but Cleveland will keep pace. In the end, only a field goal will separate these two teams, and the Browns will cover.

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind through three weeks, and the Seahawks are a good bet to once again hit the 35-point mark. This season they’ve scored 38, 35, and 38 points. But as good as their offense has been, their defense has been equally bad, giving up 25, 30, and 31 points.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing great, and after a near-miss against Buffalo, he helped Miami score 31 in a win over Jacksonville. The Dolphins have had a few extra days of preparation for this one, which will help them keep the margin under a touchdown and cover the spread.

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NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

by WagerHome Blog on September 22, 2020

The traditional overreactions to Week 1 in the NFL were set right with Week 2. The Buccaneers offense is good, as we thought in August.

The Colts could still be a playoff team, despite that early loss to Jacksonville. And the Cowboys are definitely the class of the NFC East.

As we head into Week 3, it’s now injuries that are driving the major narratives, with teams all over the league facing life without many of their star players. And of course, that injury report informs our betting choices for this weekend’s slate of games.

Arizona Cardinals (-6) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals are not only a relatively healthy team; they look fantastic. There isn’t much that Kyler Murray can’t do, and or much of a chance that the Lions defense is going to slow him down. Detroit just made Mitchell Trubisky look competent, so they’re going to make Murray feel like an MVP candidate.

The Cardinals look like a playoff team. The Lions look to be headed toward a coaching change. Take Arizona and give the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs. Houston Texans

Another healthy team is the Steelers, and Ben Roethlisberger looks completely healthy after missing all of last year. He has a host of stud wide receivers to throw to and is backed up by one of the best defenses in the league.

On the other side, the Texans aren’t stopping anyone on defense, and on offense, they’re still waiting for someone to step into the playmaker role that was vacated by DeAndre Hopkins.

It’s a tough start to the season, facing Kansas City and Baltimore out of the gate. It doesn’t get much easier against the Steelers. Take Pittsburgh to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) at Denver Broncos

The Broncos are now without quarterback Drew Lock and top wide receiver Courtland Sutton and are fading fast in the AFC West. They will fall to 0-3 this week, and the continually improving offense of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will make this one a blowout.

In August, Denver looked like a possible contender. Ravaged by injuries a month later, Tampa Bay covers this one easily.

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

When you watch the Rams of 2020, it’s easy to remember how this team made it to the Super Bowl following the 2018 season. The offense looks smooth, Jared Goff once again looks like a No. 1 overall pick, and Aaron Donald makes everything more difficult for opponents.

nfl

The Bills have looked solid but against terrible competition. Josh Allen will struggle more than he has this year, and the Rams will cover this spread.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 3 Betting Predictions
nfl

Best NFL Teams to Bet in Week 2

by WagerHome Blog on September 17, 2020

One of the biggest things to remember after Week 1 is that this is the most unusual of opening weekends for the NFL. Most reactions to what we saw are overreactions.

This is the first time anyone has started a regular season with no actual live game action, and what we think we know today may be completely turned on its head by next Tuesday morning.

That, of course, doesn’t mean we’re taking a week off from betting, or that we can’t look at the lines for this weekend and not see real value.

Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles

After seeing what Washington’s defensive line did to the Eagles offensive line, imagine the field day that Aaron Donald is going to have.

The Eagles looked absolutely lost in the final three quarters of their loss last Sunday, while the Rams established themselves as one to watch going forward. The quick passing game from Jared Goff and at least two sacks from Donald will lead the Rams to victory.

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Washington Football Team

No doubt about it, Kyler Murray is a star, and DeAndre Hopkins is in for a big season. If the two can look that connected against a defense like the 49ers, imagine what they can do against the rest of the league.

Washington’s defensive line was great against Carson Wentz, but Murray will run all over them. Take Arizona to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers is never boring; you can say that much for him. But with Marlon Mack now gone for the season, Rivers simply isn’t capable of carrying this offense at this point in his career.

For the Vikings, we’re not going to overreact to their horrible three quarters against Green Bay. They put up 24 points in the fourth quarter, showing the world the Minnesota offense that we all expect to see. They will play a much more complete game at Indianapolis.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at Tennessee Titans

Even with the assumption that the Titans will iron out their kicking woes and not leave so many points on the field, this game feels like it will stay close throughout. The Titans offense is good, but it’s built to plod and shorten the game’s possessions.

nfl

Meanwhile, the purge in Jacksonville hasn’t left the cupboard completely bare. Gardner Minshew is more than just a fun guy with a mustache – he’s a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. Take the Jags and the points.

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WagerHome BlogBest NFL Teams to Bet in Week 2
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Fantasy Football Gems Worth Owning For NFL Week 1

by WagerHome Blog on September 10, 2020

By now, you’ve had your fantasy draft, you’ve made a few bets on the NFL’s opening weekend, and you’ve done some digging on your best daily fantasy sports options. Of course, everyone already knows that Christian McCaffrey is a stud, Lamar Jackson is going to put up mad points, and in PPR leagues, there is no wide receiver as valuable as Michael Thomas.

The key to winning, though, is finding last year’s Kenyan Drake, DeVante Parker, and Jared Cook – all guys who took major and unexpected leaps in 2019.

Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Much of the preseason hype has revolved around Chiefs rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He is the top of the depth chart in Kansas City and will benefit greatly from Andy Reid’s screen game.

But Darrel Williams also has great value. Edwards-Helaire is still just a rookie, is still learning pass blocking schemes, and is awfully small for consistent goal-line carries. Williams, on the other hand, is the experienced big body first in line to pilfer those goal-line scores.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It seems crazy to call a future Hall of Fame quarterback a hidden gem, but that is exactly where Ben Roethlisberger is right now. He’s 38 and coming off major arm surgery, and that has him largely ignored in most fantasy formats.

Don’t make that same mistake. All signs say he’s healthy, and if you remember his last full season in 2018, he threw for more than 5,000 yards.

Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

A lot of people are sleeping on Preston Williams. He’s coming off an injury in 2019, the Dolphins offense is a mess, and he’s going to lose targets to DeVante Parker.

All of those things are true, but what is also true is that prior to getting hurt, he was having a great rookie season. He’s now back, and he’s cheap. And he’s almost certain to outperform his draft position and DFS cost.

Chris Herndon, TE, New York Jets

A suspension and rib injury held Chris Herndon to just one game last year, and it netted him one catch for seven yards. With reason, he is one of the last tight ends coming off the board or still sitting as a free agent.

fantasy

But he’s incredibly talented, has been having a great camp, and when quarterbacks don’t have big downfield threats, they lean on their tight ends. Expect Sam Darnold to lean on Herndon, and do it early.

Herndon is going to be great this season, and in a matchup against Buffalo’s secondary in Week 1, he should see even more targets than usual.

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WagerHome BlogFantasy Football Gems Worth Owning For NFL Week 1
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NFL is Back! Five Teams to Bet to Get off to a Great Start

by WagerHome Blog on September 8, 2020

After seven long months of no NFL, starting this weekend, we get all the NFL we could possibly want. Great catches, crunching hits, questionable play calls, and, of course, the best sports betting anywhere on planet Earth!

With no OTAs, no preseason, and a truncated training camp, we’ve never entered a new season knowing so little. But what we do know can be used to our advantage.

Top Five Teams to Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5) at New York Giants

The Giants have perhaps the worst roster in the league and a new head coach. The Steelers have a great defense, Ben Roethlisberger, and continuity at head coach.

That will be the theme here in the early going. New coaches, new players, and new systems take time to gel.

We are going to see a larger number of blowouts here in the early going because of the weird offseason, and this will be one of them. Take the Steelers, lay the points.

Detroit Lions (-3) vs. Chicago Bears

Before Matthew Stafford got hurt last year, he was having a great season. The Bears, on the other hand, are still rolling out Mitchell Trubisky after Nick Foles failed to beat him out for the starting job. That’s not good.

Detroit had the better offseason and has the much better quarterback. The Lions are a sleeper to challenge for a playoff spot, and you should take them to cover here.

Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The roster purge in Jacksonville has left the cupboard bare. Meanwhile, the Colts have a new gunslinger under center, one of the best offensive lines in football, and a defense more than capable against Gardner Minshew and whoever else is left in Jacksonville.

Take the Colts and Philip Rivers to win this in a blowout and easily cover the 7.5 points.

Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Two teams with two new quarterbacks. There will be growing pains for Joe Burrow in Cincinnati, but with no Derwin James to face in the Chargers secondary, he’ll have fewer pains to start.

On the other sideline, Tyrod Taylor has Keenan Allen, but the health of Mike Williams is a big question mark headed into Sunday.

This feels like a field goal win for the Chargers, which is why the Bengals at home getting the points are the better bet.

Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens

nfl

The Ravens are still an AFC favorite and expect them to win here. But the Browns offense is now under the direction of Kevin Stefanski, and the offensive line is much better.

They will stick with the Ravens in this one and score against a Baltimore secondary now without Earl Thomas. Baltimore wins, but take the points and the Browns.

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WagerHome BlogNFL is Back! Five Teams to Bet to Get off to a Great Start
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Fantasy Options For The NFL Season Opener

by WagerHome Blog on September 3, 2020

We’ve made it. Almost. Unlike the delay for the baseball season and the interruptions to the NBA and NHL, it looks as though the NFL is going to kick off its season on time (fingers and toes crossed).

The rematch of the wildest playoff game last January – Kansas City’s 51-31 comeback against Houston – is set for Sept. 10 in front of limited fans at Arrowhead.

If you’re looking to this game for fantasy purposes, quarterback play is an obvious route. Two of the top five quarterbacks in the league will be slinging it in the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Texans’ Deshaun Watson.

But beyond quarterback, who are the best plays?

Houston Texans

David Johnson, RB

It’s been several years since David Johnson was a fantasy stud, and over the long haul, he’s a risky play because of his injury history. But he’s going against a suspect run defense, and because of the price Bill O’Brien paid to get Johnson (trading away superstar DeAndre Hopkins), there is no way he’s going to let Johnson go unused.

Johnson is going to be featured early and often, and fantasy players have their best chance to take advantage of his high touches here in Week 1.

Will Fuller, WR

With Hopkins gone, the Houston wide receiving corps turns to Will Fuller to lead. Along with his 89 yards against the Chiefs in the playoffs, Fuller had some absolutely monster games last season, including 217 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons, and 140 yards against Indianapolis.

Suspensions have the Chiefs secondary beginning the year short-handed, and Fuller will find plenty of holes to work.

Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce, TE

He’s already on your radar as a top fantasy option, but when it comes to playing the Texans, Travis Kelce absolutely feasts. In six career games against Houston, he has 41 receptions for 558 yards and five touchdowns.

nfl

He loves playing them, and there is simply no one on the Texans defense that can contain him. Whatever it takes, get Kelce into your lineup for this matchup.

Mecole Hardman, WR

If you can play Tyreek Hill, play Tyreek Hill. But if you’re looking for a cheaper option or are deciding between Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman, go with the second-year man out of Georgia.

The speedy Hardman averaged more than 20 yards per catch as a rookie and is in line to make a big leap in 2020. The Texans’ pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and Hardman will get at least one long score in this game.

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WagerHome BlogFantasy Options For The NFL Season Opener
burrow

Betting on Burrow: Time to Bet Bengals Win Total for 2020?

by WagerHome Blog on April 30, 2020

It’s not often that people are excited to bet on the Cincinnati Bengals. But after a good draft that saw them pick Joe Burrow as their new starting quarterback – as expected – there is a buzz with the Bengals that hasn’t been there in many years. So much buzz in fact that the over/under on their 2020 win total is now 6.0.

So is this a time to put money down on Cincinnati? Can the Heisman Trophy winner make that much of a difference and make the Bengals good buys for the 2020 season? The history on that is mixed, and the answer is far from certain.

Joe Burrow vs. Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck

The Indianapolis Colts have been in a position to grab franchise-saving quarterbacks with the first overall pick twice since 1998 in Peyton Manning out of Tennessee and Andrew Luck from Stanford.

The year prior to Manning’s selection, the Colts were 3-13. The year with Manning as their rookie quarterback, the Colts were also 3-13. So there was no improvement there, although in year 2, Manning led Indy to a 13-3 record.

For Luck, the improvement was far more immediate. The Colts were 2-14 before he was drafted and 11-5 in his rookie year. So big turnarounds can happen.

Joe Burrow vs. Baker Mayfield vs. Kyler Murray

Burrow’s selection marks the third straight season that a quarterback has gone first overall. In 2018 the Cleveland Browns selected Baker Mayfield, while in 2019, the Arizona Cardinals picked Kyler Murray. All three of them won the Heisman Trophy the year before their selection.

burrow

It’s worth noting that neither Mayfield or Murray were the sure things that Burrow is thought to be, but both did lead their teams to improved records. Mayfield only started 13 games in 2018, but the Browns improved in the win column by seven victories. Easier to do when you were 0-16 the year before, but still, that’s a very noticeable improvement.

Murray, for his part, improved the Cardinals from 3-13 to 5-10-1. So not as big a jump, but still noticeable.

Joe Burrow vs. Andy Dalton

One big difference in the Burrow selection is that the Bengals weren’t saddled last year with a terrible quarterback. Andy Dalton has never been exciting but has always been solid.

The Browns, Cardinals, and Colts didn’t have a competent NFL quarterback as their starter prior to drafting their young superstar. So just how much will Burrow move the needle in Cincinnati?

Oddsmakers say they’ll go from two to six wins. It’s a tall order, but definitely not impossible.

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WagerHome BlogBetting on Burrow: Time to Bet Bengals Win Total for 2020?
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NFL Draft Results Push Oddsmakers to Update Betting Odds To Win Super Bowl LV

by WagerHome Blog on April 28, 2020

No one can really say what teams came out of the 2020 NFL Draft having had a great draft or having had a bad draft for at least a couple of years. Some picks will be busts, and others will be steals. But until they play a down of real NFL football, it’s too soon to give the definitive word on any one player.

Or course that doesn’t mean that we can’t have our own instant reactions, or that the bookmakers in Las Vegas don’t have their opinions as well. And since how they feel about the draft actually changed the futures betting board on winning Super Bowl LV, theirs is an opinion worth looking at.

San Francisco 49ers

The Super Bowl runner-up hangover is real, and so the 49ers have that to contend with. They also traded away DeForest Buckner and Matt Breida, lost Joe Staley to retirement, and saw Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency. But a really strong draft has them still as the favorite to repeat in the NFC.

Defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw is a beast, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk draws high praise from everyone who’s coached him, and a draft-day trade brought in Trent Williams to fill Staley’s shoes. The 49ers have improved to +1000 to win the Super Bowl, trailing only Kansas City and Baltimore.

Dallas Cowboys

This was considered to be a wide receiver-rich draft. If you wanted or needed a wideout, you would get a good one. But for some inexplicable reason, the player everyone had tabbed as the best wide receiver of the bunch, CeeDee Lamb of Oklahoma, fell into the lap of the Dallas Cowboys at pick 17.

Dak Prescott now has Amari Cooper, Lamb, and Ezekiel Elliott as primary weapons, and in the NFC East, that will be tough to stop.

nfl draft

The Cowboys also got a second-round steal in cornerback Trevon Diggs, who most people believe has first-round talent. For their efforts, the Cowboys jumped to +2000 to win Super Bowl LV.

Green Bay Packers

Just three months ago, the Packers were one win away from the Super Bowl. But thanks to a lackluster NFL Draft, they are now tied for seventh in the NFC as possible Super Bowl LV winners. Aaron Rodgers is still great, but he needs weapons. So with their first pick in the draft, Green Bay selected a backup quarterback in Jordan Love of Utah State.

One win away from the Super Bowl and their first pick was for a player who won’t see the field this season. In all 37 wide receivers were taken in this year’s draft, and not one of them by the Packers.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Draft Results Push Oddsmakers to Update Betting Odds To Win Super Bowl LV
prop bets

Finding Winning Prop Bets For The 2020 NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on April 23, 2020

This year is expected to be the most-watched NFL Draft in history while being one of the most unpredictable drafts in recent memory.

Unpredictable, because after the first two players on the board, there is no consensus. Unpredictable, because pro days were canceled because of COVID-19, and teams have had far fewer meetings with players. And unpredictable because a smooth draft is dependent on the coaches and GMs of all 32 teams having good WiFi connections.

All of that unpredictability can only mean one thing – anyone can find a winning prop bet because anything could happen at this year’s NFL Draft.

Player Draft Specials

The most intriguing player to talk about is Tua Tagovailoa. He has world-class talent but is just a few months removed from a serious hip injury. If he’s worth taking a risk with a high pick, which team is most likely to select him?

  • Dolphins +150
  • Chargers +175
  • Jaguars +500
  • Raiders +1000

The smart money is on the Dolphins or Chargers, and both teams still need to solidify a QB for 2020 and the future.

Chase Young is the best defensive player in the draft, but Isaiah Simmons is the most intriguing because of his versatility. Which team is most likely to draft Simmons?

  • Panthers +225
  • Giants +350
  • Cardinals +700
  • Falcons +700
  • Chargers +700

Interesting to see the Chargers near the top of this prop bet since they are also in the Tua sweepstakes. But if Tagovailoa goes to Miami, the Chargers will probably go with defense or trade back.

LSU vs. Alabama

College rivalries don’t end just because players move on to the NFL, and the rivalry between LSU and Alabama has carried over into a couple of different prop bets. You can bet the over/under on the number of players taken in the first round:

  • Alabama Over 5.5 (+100) Under 5.5 (-121)
  • LSU Over 5.5 (+235) Under 5.5 (-305)

prop bets

Or you can just take the two rivals in a head-to-head matchup for most players taken in the first round:

  • Alabama -240
  • LSU +190

Mr. Irrelevant

The above props will be decided on the first day of the draft. But if you’re looking for some excitement on the last day, there is the very popular Mr. Irrelevant, and betting on which position will be selected with the 255th overall pick.

  • Offense -121
  • Defense +100
  • Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper +1400

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WagerHome BlogFinding Winning Prop Bets For The 2020 NFL Draft

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