NFL Draft Archives

NFL Draft 2021: What to Expect in the First Round

by WagerHome Blog on April 27, 2021

A strange, shortened, and, in some cases, absent college football season makes this year’s NFL Draft one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. There was no combine, and only scattered player pro days and limited face-to-face interviews. Will teams be willing to take risks or go with the tried and true?

Hard to say exactly, but this is our best guess as to the headlines that will be made during Thursday night’s first round.

It’s a Quarterback’s League

If you don’t have a franchise quarterback, you don’t have a shot at the Super Bowl. That is the reality of the NFL, and that is why it is a certainty that the top three picks will be rookie signal-callers.

Trevor Lawrence goes No. 1 to the Jaguars, Zach Wilson goes to the Jets at No. 2, but who do the 49ers take at No. 3? It will be a quarterback, and if it’s Mac Jones, don’t be surprised if there are a number of teams on the phone with the Falcons trying to move up to No. 4 for Trey Lance or Justin Fields.

The Broncos are sitting at No. 9, and if the quarterback they covet is still on the board at No. 4, the Falcons could get a haul of picks from Denver. The Bears, or even the Patriots, might also have an eye on moving up for one of the top quarterbacks.

Teams Moving Up

The Ravens have their quarterback, but they also have a lot of picks. Ten picks to be exact, including two first-rounders, two thirds, and two fourths. Look for Baltimore to package its picks and move up to grab one of the best wide receivers on the board.

The Chargers have nine total picks, including No. 13 in the first round. If there is an opportunity to grab a top offensive tackle or tight end Kyle Pitts, don’t be surprised if Los Angeles makes a move. It wants to surround Justin Herbert with as much offensive talent as possible.

The Miami Dolphins

With confidence in second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and holding first-round picks at Nos. 6 and 18, the Dolphins get a section all to themselves. Look for them to use the sixth pick on LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, then make a big trade with someone for the No. 18 pick.

They have lots of draft capital and could move up, down, or into more picks for the future. Whatever Miami ultimately decides to do, when the first-round grades are given out, look for it to score quite high.

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2021 Mock NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on April 7, 2021

The NFL Draft is just three weeks away, and the wheeling and dealing has already reached a fever pitch. The San Francisco 49ers made big moves to get a quarterback, and the New York Jets seem to have clarified their draft priorities with a trade of their own.

It is the season of the mock draft, and here is ours.

Top 10 NFL Draft Picks

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (QB)

Don’t listen to the noise. Trevor Lawrence has been the top pick in this draft for more than two years now.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson, BYU (QB)

Sam Darnold has been dealt to the Carolina Panthers, and the Jets replace him with the signal-caller from BYU, Zach Wilson.

3. San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, Alabama (QB)

This is where things get interesting. Maybe the Mac Jones chatter is a smoke screen, though no one can jump ahead of the 49ers and take either Justin Fields or Trey Lance, so there is no reason for a head-fake here. So it’s Jones, but with a possible surprise.

4. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, Florida (TE)

The Falcons have revealed that they would like to trade this pick, so stay tuned. It could become a quarterback to a yet-to-be-named team. But if the Falcons keep the pick, they will add the most impressive offensive weapon in the draft, Florida tight end Kyle Pitts.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, Oregon (OT)

Last year, the Bengals got their franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. And since he ended the season injured, this year they will get the best player in this draft charged with keeping quarterbacks healthy, Oregon tackle Penei Sewell.

6. Miami Dolphins – Ja’Marr Chase, LSU (WR)

By trading out of the top three, the Dolphins signaled that they are ready to roll with Tua Tagovailoa in 2021. He gets the best wide receiver in the draft, Ja’Marr Chase.

7. Detroit Lions – Justin Fields, Ohio State (QB)

The Lions did just trade for Jared Goff, but that was more for the draft picks the Rams sent to take on Goff’s contract. The Lions can get out of that contract in 2022, and at that point, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields will take the reins.

8. Carolina Panthers – Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (OT)

Maybe the Panthers go with a wide receiver, but they do have Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore, which makes offensive tackle more likely. Rashawn Slater from Northwestern is the second-best tackle in the draft.

9. Denver Broncos – Trey Lance, North Dakota State (QB)

The Broncos could trade up for a different quarterback, but chances are they will be pleased to get North Dakota State’s Trey Lance without having to trade away any assets.

10. Dallas Cowboys – Kwity Paye, Michigan (Edge)

Our first defensive selection of the draft goes to Dallas, where Michigan’s Kwity Paye will pair very nicely with DeMarcus Lawrence and give Dallas a top pass rush.

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First Look at 2021 NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on February 23, 2021

We are still a couple of weeks away from the NFL’s new season and the start of free agency. So while we wait for the offseason to kick in, it’s never too early to look ahead to the NFL’s version of Christmas Day – the NFL Draft.

After last year’s event that was done virtually, the city of Cleveland is moving forward with plans to host an in-person draft this year, beginning on April 29th.

The Second Quarterback Drafted

There isn’t any question as to which quarterback is going first. Talking heads are trying to drum up drama, but in the end, it will be Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence. Be it Jacksonville or someone else who has traded up, he will be the top overall pick. But which of the signal callers is going next?

Zach Wilson (-188)
Justin Fields (+140)
Trey Lance (+200)
Mac Jones (+1200)
Trevor Lawrence (+3300)
Kyle Trask (+6600)

Zach Wilson is the biggest riser of late, as the talk shifts to the struggles of Justin Fields in bigger games. But the legitimate criticism of this line of thinking is that Wilson never really played a big game. The best team he played this year was a loss to Coastal Carolina, and it was his worst game of the year.

One betting note, Lawrence pays +3300 if instead of going first, he goes second.

Offensive Line

Penei Sewell (-1200)
Rashawn Slater (+333)
Alijah Vera-Tucker (+450)

Oregon’s Penei Sewell is the obvious choice to go first here. He is a game wrecker who many people think will be just as valuable as Trevor Lawrence.

Running Back

Travis Etienne (-225)
Najee Harris (+150)
Javonte Williams (+800)

Along with the top quarterback, Clemson is the favorite to have the top running back off the board. Travis Etienne saw his rushing production drop significantly this season after breaking 1,600 in both 2018 and 2019. But he did catch 48 passes as a senior, showing he can be a three-down back.

Alabama’s Najee Harris scored 26 touchdowns in 2020, and he has the advantage of an Alabama pedigree. Current Tide running backs in the NFL include Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, and Damien Harris.

Wide Receiver

DeVonta Smith (-133)
JaMarr Chase (-105)
Jaylen Waddle (+450)
Rondale Moore (+550)

If it feels like Alabama has all the talent, it’s because they do. Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith is the slight favorite to go first, just ahead of LSU’s JaMarr Chase. Chase sat out in 2020, but in 2019, he was the best wide receiver in the nation.

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Betting on Burrow: Time to Bet Bengals Win Total for 2020?

by WagerHome Blog on April 30, 2020

It’s not often that people are excited to bet on the Cincinnati Bengals. But after a good draft that saw them pick Joe Burrow as their new starting quarterback – as expected – there is a buzz with the Bengals that hasn’t been there in many years. So much buzz in fact that the over/under on their 2020 win total is now 6.0.

So is this a time to put money down on Cincinnati? Can the Heisman Trophy winner make that much of a difference and make the Bengals good buys for the 2020 season? The history on that is mixed, and the answer is far from certain.

Joe Burrow vs. Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck

The Indianapolis Colts have been in a position to grab franchise-saving quarterbacks with the first overall pick twice since 1998 in Peyton Manning out of Tennessee and Andrew Luck from Stanford.

The year prior to Manning’s selection, the Colts were 3-13. The year with Manning as their rookie quarterback, the Colts were also 3-13. So there was no improvement there, although in year 2, Manning led Indy to a 13-3 record.

For Luck, the improvement was far more immediate. The Colts were 2-14 before he was drafted and 11-5 in his rookie year. So big turnarounds can happen.

Joe Burrow vs. Baker Mayfield vs. Kyler Murray

Burrow’s selection marks the third straight season that a quarterback has gone first overall. In 2018 the Cleveland Browns selected Baker Mayfield, while in 2019, the Arizona Cardinals picked Kyler Murray. All three of them won the Heisman Trophy the year before their selection.

It’s worth noting that neither Mayfield or Murray were the sure things that Burrow is thought to be, but both did lead their teams to improved records. Mayfield only started 13 games in 2018, but the Browns improved in the win column by seven victories. Easier to do when you were 0-16 the year before, but still, that’s a very noticeable improvement.

Murray, for his part, improved the Cardinals from 3-13 to 5-10-1. So not as big a jump, but still noticeable.

Joe Burrow vs. Andy Dalton

One big difference in the Burrow selection is that the Bengals weren’t saddled last year with a terrible quarterback. Andy Dalton has never been exciting but has always been solid.

The Browns, Cardinals, and Colts didn’t have a competent NFL quarterback as their starter prior to drafting their young superstar. So just how much will Burrow move the needle in Cincinnati?

Oddsmakers say they’ll go from two to six wins. It’s a tall order, but definitely not impossible.

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NFL Draft Results Push Oddsmakers to Update Betting Odds To Win Super Bowl LV

by WagerHome Blog on April 28, 2020

No one can really say what teams came out of the 2020 NFL Draft having had a great draft or having had a bad draft for at least a couple of years. Some picks will be busts, and others will be steals. But until they play a down of real NFL football, it’s too soon to give the definitive word on any one player.

Or course that doesn’t mean that we can’t have our own instant reactions, or that the bookmakers in Las Vegas don’t have their opinions as well. And since how they feel about the draft actually changed the futures betting board on winning Super Bowl LV, theirs is an opinion worth looking at.

San Francisco 49ers

The Super Bowl runner-up hangover is real, and so the 49ers have that to contend with. They also traded away DeForest Buckner and Matt Breida, lost Joe Staley to retirement, and saw Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency. But a really strong draft has them still as the favorite to repeat in the NFC.

Defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw is a beast, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk draws high praise from everyone who’s coached him, and a draft-day trade brought in Trent Williams to fill Staley’s shoes. The 49ers have improved to +1000 to win the Super Bowl, trailing only Kansas City and Baltimore.

Dallas Cowboys

This was considered to be a wide receiver-rich draft. If you wanted or needed a wideout, you would get a good one. But for some inexplicable reason, the player everyone had tabbed as the best wide receiver of the bunch, CeeDee Lamb of Oklahoma, fell into the lap of the Dallas Cowboys at pick 17.

Dak Prescott now has Amari Cooper, Lamb, and Ezekiel Elliott as primary weapons, and in the NFC East, that will be tough to stop.

The Cowboys also got a second-round steal in cornerback Trevon Diggs, who most people believe has first-round talent. For their efforts, the Cowboys jumped to +2000 to win Super Bowl LV.

Green Bay Packers

Just three months ago, the Packers were one win away from the Super Bowl. But thanks to a lackluster NFL Draft, they are now tied for seventh in the NFC as possible Super Bowl LV winners. Aaron Rodgers is still great, but he needs weapons. So with their first pick in the draft, Green Bay selected a backup quarterback in Jordan Love of Utah State.

One win away from the Super Bowl and their first pick was for a player who won’t see the field this season. In all 37 wide receivers were taken in this year’s draft, and not one of them by the Packers.

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Finding Winning Prop Bets For The 2020 NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on April 23, 2020

This year is expected to be the most-watched NFL Draft in history while being one of the most unpredictable drafts in recent memory.

Unpredictable, because after the first two players on the board, there is no consensus. Unpredictable, because pro days were canceled because of COVID-19, and teams have had far fewer meetings with players. And unpredictable because a smooth draft is dependent on the coaches and GMs of all 32 teams having good WiFi connections.

All of that unpredictability can only mean one thing – anyone can find a winning prop bet because anything could happen at this year’s NFL Draft.

Player Draft Specials

The most intriguing player to talk about is Tua Tagovailoa. He has world-class talent but is just a few months removed from a serious hip injury. If he’s worth taking a risk with a high pick, which team is most likely to select him?

Dolphins +150
Chargers +175
Jaguars +500
Raiders +1000

The smart money is on the Dolphins or Chargers, and both teams still need to solidify a QB for 2020 and the future.

Chase Young is the best defensive player in the draft, but Isaiah Simmons is the most intriguing because of his versatility. Which team is most likely to draft Simmons?

Panthers +225
Giants +350
Cardinals +700
Falcons +700
Chargers +700

Interesting to see the Chargers near the top of this prop bet since they are also in the Tua sweepstakes. But if Tagovailoa goes to Miami, the Chargers will probably go with defense or trade back.

LSU vs. Alabama

College rivalries don’t end just because players move on to the NFL, and the rivalry between LSU and Alabama has carried over into a couple of different prop bets. You can bet the over/under on the number of players taken in the first round:

Alabama Over 5.5 (+100) Under 5.5 (-121)
LSU Over 5.5 (+235) Under 5.5 (-305)

Or you can just take the two rivals in a head-to-head matchup for most players taken in the first round:

Alabama -240
LSU +190

Mr. Irrelevant

The above props will be decided on the first day of the draft. But if you’re looking for some excitement on the last day, there is the very popular Mr. Irrelevant, and betting on which position will be selected with the 255th overall pick.

Offense -121
Defense +100
Kicker/Punter/Long Snapper +1400

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What Quarterbacks Will Be Drafted In 2020 NFL Draft?

by WagerHome Blog on April 21, 2020

The NFL Draft is this week, which, in a normal year, would be an exciting time. But with the world thirsting for sports and sports betting, this year’s draft has even more anticipation surrounding it.

As always, the marquee position of quarterback is the one with the most intrigue as we count down to Thursday’s first round. Will Joe Burrow become the newest Cincinnati Bengal, or will they trade down and get a king’s ransom from someone else who wants the Heisman Trophy winner?

And what about the fate of Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa? Is his hip going to scare off general managers, or will his obvious talent win out? So many questions, and because of that, so many great prop bets surrounding this year’s draft and its crop of future NFL quarterbacks.

First Overall Draft Pick

Not since Andrew Luck was at the top of the draft board have experts been as united on who will be the first overall selection. LSU’s Joe Burrow had one of the most dominant college football seasons ever, and the national champion is a huge -10000 favorite to go with the first pick.

Second Quarterback Drafted

Very little drama surrounds the first overall pick and the first quarterback to come off the board. But who will be next? There are several teams near the top – Dolphins, Chargers, and perhaps the Lions – that all may draft a quarterback. Which player does that group value most?

Justin Herbert -125
Tua Tagovailoa -110
Jordan Love +2000
Joe Burrow +3300
Jacob Eason +15000
Jalen Hurts +15000
Jake Fromm +20000

Third Quarterback Drafted

It’s a two-man race to be the second quarterback drafted, so it stands to reason that those two men are also the leading candidates to be the third quarterback drafted.

Justin Herbert +100
Tua Tagovailoa +100
Jordan Love +400
Joe Burrow +10000
Jacob Eason +10000
Jake Fromm +15000
Jalen Hurts +15000

Player Draft Position

You can also try your hand at predicting the over/under on the final draft position of each of these quarterback prospects.

Justin Herbert 5.5 Over (-110) Under (-110)
Tua Tagovailoa 5.5 Over (+110) Under (-134)
Jordan Love 19.5 Over (-177) Under (+144)
Jacob Eason 47.5 Over (-143) Under (+118)
Jake Fromm 60.5 Over (-115) Under (-106)
Jalen Hurts 60.5 Over (-106) Under (-115)

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Wide Receivers Could Rule First Round Of NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on April 16, 2020

As the NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and fans and G.M.s have visions of future All-Pros dancing in their heads, sports betting on the NFL Draft is also heating up. There is Joe Burrow excitement and questions on which team will land superstar Chase Young, but the position group creating the most pre-draft buzz is at wide receiver.

The 2019 wide receiver class was incredible. A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Mecole Hardman, Marquise Brown, and Terry McLaurin all made first-year impacts. But this 2020 wide receiver class may be even better.

First-Round Selections

How many wide receivers will be taken in the first round? Right now, the line is 5.5, but the over on that is paying just -250, so clearly, oddsmakers think six wideouts will come off the board on the first day.

First Wide Receiver Selected

Everyone knows it’s a great class, but which player is best? Who is going to have the honor of being the first wide receiver selected in 2020?

Jerry Jeudy -121
CeeDee Lamb +175
Henry Ruggs III +250
Justin Jefferson +10000
Denzel Mims +10000
Tee Higgins +15000
Jalen Reagor +15000
Laviska Shenault, Jr. +15000

According to the odds, it’s a three-man race between the two Alabama wideouts – Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs – and the standout from Oklahoma, CeeDee Lamb.

Ruggs is the fastest of this group with a 40-time of 4.27. But don’t sleep on Baylor’s Denzel Mims, who goes 6-2, 206 pounds, with a 40-time of 4.38.

Wide Receiver Draft Position

Jeudy is the favorite to go first among the wide receivers, but just how high will he go? The line on his draft position is 12.5.

Lamb has the next highest draft position line at 13.5. Interesting note – the under on Lamb’s 13.5 line pays -150, which means oddsmakers really do have him going right behind Jeudy.

Ruggs is at 14.5, and again the under on that is the favorite at -127. LSU’s Jefferson, who made an eye-popping 111 catches in the Tigers’ national championship season, has an over/under draft position of 21.5. Both sides of that bet pay -110.

Who Gets Drafted First?

One last NFL Draft wide receiver prop bet is the individual contest between Crimson Tide teammates Jeudy and Ruggs, and who will be drafted first. Picking Jeudy pays -250. Going with Ruggs plays +200.

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Will A Running Back Be Taken In The NFL Draft’s First Round?

by WagerHome Blog on April 14, 2020

There was a time that a great running back coming out of college was a sure thing to get drafted in the top five of the NFL Draft. Four years ago, Ezekiel Elliott was taken fourth overall by the Cowboys. Three years ago, it was Leonard Fournette that was taken fourth overall by Jacksonville. And two years ago, Saquon Barkley was selected second overall by the Giants.

But last year, the first running back didn’t come off the board until 24th when the Raiders selected Josh Jacobs. And the second running back wasn’t taken until the 21st pick of the second round.

While running backs seem to have fallen out of favor because of the evolution of NFL offenses, the NFL Draft prop bets on running backs remain quite interesting and potentially profitable.

First-Round Selections

Oddsmakers seem to think that we might have a replay of what happened last season. The line on the number of running backs taken in the first round sits at 0.5. The last time the first round ended without a running back being selected was 2014.

Most current mock drafts don’t have anyone taking a running back in the first round but keep an eye on the Chiefs. They pick 32nd, and if they have one weakness on offense, it’s at running back.

First Running Back Selected

None of these players are expected to go high, but that doesn’t mean the wagering on which running back will go first is any less interesting. The odds for the first back to come off the board are as follows.

D’Andre Swift -200
Jonathan Taylor +200
J.K. Dobbins +500
Clyde Edwards-Helaire +2000
Cam Akers +5000
Zack Moss +5000

D’Andre Swift is excellent in the passing game, which puts him at the top of the NFL’s radar. Jonathan Taylor topped 2,000 yards last season but is less valuable catching balls out of the backfield.

J.K. Dobbins is also a 2,000-yard back and came up huge in big games for Ohio State, with 211 yards and 4 TDs against Michigan, 172 yards in the Big Ten Championship Game, and 174 yards against Clemson in the CFP Semifinal.

Running Back Draft Position

Swift is the heavy favorite to be the first running back taken, and oddsmakers have set the line on his draft position at 26.5. The over on that total pays -167, while the under is +135.

The over/under on Wisconsin’s Taylor is 37.5, while Dobbins is listed at 49.5.

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Future Bets Rolling In For Upcoming NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on April 9, 2020

Commissioner Roger Goodell’s decision to go ahead with the NFL Draft, while controversial in some circles, is seen as welcome relief in others. Not only will it give the nation’s sports fans a glimpse into normalcy during these most unusual of times, but it’s giving the nation’s sports bettors something big to wager on.

Over the years, the NFL Draft has grown in stature as a televised sporting event, and the gambling dollars have followed. And this year more than most, that is especially true, as mock drafts, trade rumors, and future NFL stars dominate the sports world headlines and the action at sportsbooks.

Top NFL Draft Bets

Anyone who watched college football last year and has seen even a minute of pre-draft coverage knows that LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is the huge favorite to come off the board first and be drafted by the Bengals. But from there, things are expected to get interesting.

Will Chase Young go No. 2, as is favored? Will his Ohio State teammate Jeff Okudah slide into that second spot? Or is No. 2 where Tua Tagovailoa will land? Currently, you can get +425 on Tua going with the second pick, with the lowest odds (+150) coming at pick No. 5, which is currently owned by the Miami Dolphins.

One of the most intriguing NFL Draft props is regarding wide receiver and which player from this great class of wideouts is expected to be drafted first. It’s a neck-and-neck race between Jerry Jeudy (-105) and CeeDee Lamb (+100). Henry Ruggs is currently at +200, or you can take the field and get +2000.

There is also expected to be an offensive player rush in the first round. Defensive prospects like Young, Okudah, Isaiah Simmons, and Derrick Brown all have shots at the top five, but overall you’ll only get -250 on there being more offensive picks in the first round, as compared to +170 for there being more defensive players coming off the board on night one.

There are so many fun props, like which will have more players drafted in the first round, Alabama or the entire Big Ten? Offensive line vs. Defensive line? Clemson vs. Ohio State? The NFL Draft gets started on April 23, and the money is rolling in.

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It’s a Quarterback’s League

Teams Moving Up

The Miami Dolphins

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Top 10 NFL Draft Picks

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The Second Quarterback Drafted

Offensive Line

Running Back

Wide Receiver

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Joe Burrow vs. Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck

Joe Burrow vs. Baker Mayfield vs. Kyler Murray

Joe Burrow vs. Andy Dalton

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San Francisco 49ers

Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers

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Player Draft Specials

LSU vs. Alabama

Mr. Irrelevant

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First Overall Draft Pick

Second Quarterback Drafted

Third Quarterback Drafted

Player Draft Position

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First-Round Selections

First Wide Receiver Selected

Wide Receiver Draft Position

Who Gets Drafted First?

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First-Round Selections

First Running Back Selected

Running Back Draft Position

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Top NFL Draft Bets

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