NCAA Football National Title Game Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on January 6, 2023

Nearly five months after the college football season began, there’s just one game left to play, the National Championship game. The No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs are on a mission to repeat after their late rally against Ohio State in the semifinals. The No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs stand in their way after upsetting Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl.

Monday’s National football Championship Game will be played at a neutral site in Los Angeles, at SoFi Stadium. With a spread of 13.5 points in favor of Georgia, this game has one of the largest spreads in recent title games.

TCU on Upset Run

The Horned Frogs began the season unranked and with better than 1500-1 odds to win the football title. A win on Monday would go down as one of the biggest upsets in college football history and rival the largest preseason underdogs to win a title in any sport.

To keep their run going, TCU has to find a way to force turnovers like they did against Michigan. A blocked kick, fumble recovery or pick-six can flip the momentum early and put Georgia on their heels.

Michigan’s football defense doesn’t allow many yards on the ground, but Ohio State showed TCU how to attack the Bulldogs through the air. TCU running back Kendre Miller was injured against Michigan though they are hopeful he will be 100%.

Duggan gets rid of the football quickly, and he will need to as the Bulldogs racked up four sacks against Ohio State, even without pass-rusher Nolan Smith. Duggan ranks 28th in the nation in completed passes down the field, but the Heisman runner-up was picked off twice against Michigan, something he must avoid on Monday.

TCU’s football defense isn’t great, and they gave up more than 550 yards to Michigan. The Horned Frogs play a 3-3-5 defense, and Georgia completed nearly 70% of their passes this season against five DB’s.

 

Bulldogs on a Repeat Mission

Stetson Bennett sure does save his best for the big games. Last year he threw for 537 yards and five touchdowns in the two playoff games, with no interceptions. In Saturday’s semifinal, he led the comeback over Ohio State with 398 yards and three passing touchdowns, including the game-winning score with 54 seconds left.

The Georgia running backs and offensive line can go to work against the Horned Frogs defense. Kenny McIntosh and Daijun Edwards combined for 128 yards against Ohio State on 13 carries, and Mcintosh added four catches for 58 yards and a touchdown. Georgia didn’t stick to the run as they trailed the Buckeyes, but if they can get the ground game going early, they can control the clock and the game.

Georgia’s defense has been uncharacteristic in their last two games, with 30 points allowed against LSU and 41 against Ohio State. On the season, they have allowed just 12.8 ppg and 77 rushing ypg. Even without Smith, they have enough talent to get things back on track on defense and suffocate the Horned Frogs offense.

Game Scripts Dictate Props

You can offer plenty of fun props on the national title game. If Georgia controls the clock and the running game, their passing totals will be low, and that also means TCU will be impatient on offense and throw more. However, if Georgia falls behind like they did against OSU and they run the ball less than 20 times, their passing game props will skyrocket.

Miller is the closest thing to an automatic touchdown for either team, as he found the endzone 17 times on the season. McIntosh has 12 touchdowns, but no one else on either team has gone for more than six touchdowns this season. Touchdown props can be another fun market to create props and bets for a game like this.

UGA Repeats in Big Way

All the numbers here point towards Georgia winning and being in control for the entire game. A 20-point win wouldn’t be a surprise at all, as the Bulldogs have been here before, won big games over ranked teams, and they have the superior talent at nearly every position.

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WagerHome BlogNCAA Football National Title Game Betting Preview

National Championship Game Bets To Make

by WagerHome Blog on January 7, 2021

The 2020 national title will be decided on Monday night when the Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the National Championship Game in Miami.

The current word is that Ohio State is struggling with a number of positive COVID-19 tests. But the game is still on for Monday and is likely to remain that way.

The Buckeyes will be without some members of their team when they play Alabama, as they were against Clemson in the CFP semifinal. As long as that number doesn’t rise significantly, the show will go on.

The Line: Alabama (-7.5)

The top-ranked Crimson Tide head into the game as just over a touchdown favorite, which is good for Alabama fans. When favored by seven points or less, Alabama has lost against the spread in five of its last eight games. So as long as the spread stays 7.5 or above, that history remains moot.

What is relevant is that even though Alabama was an impressive 8-4 against the spread in 2020, it has failed to cover in each of this season’s postseason games – the SEC Championship Game (six-point win over Florida) and the CFP semifinal (17-point win over Notre Dame.)

Ohio State was only the underdog once this year – its semifinal game against Clemson – and the Buckeyes beat that spread by an impressive 28 points.

Take the Buckeyes and the points.

Over/Under: 74.5

The game total opened at 76.5 and has come down two full points. That could be the result of the COVID-19 news coming out of Columbus. But we know that both of these teams can and will score regardless of which pieces are missing on Monday.

Justin Fields just went for six touchdowns against Clemson, and Alabama’s pass defense ranks only 82nd in the country. Ohio State has scored 52, 49, 42, 52, and 49 points in games this season. The Buckeyes can score.

So who does Alabama have? Just the most recent Heisman Trophy winner, wide receiver DeVonta Smith, and his quarterback, Mac Jones, who finished third in Heisman voting.

national championship game

There’s also running back Najee Harris, who finished fifth in the Heisman voting. How is that for a three-headed offensive monster?

Only twice this year did Alabama fail to break 40 points – at Missouri and against Notre Dame. But six times, the Crimson Tide broke 50 points, including 63 points each against Mississippi and Kentucky.

If you want to place a totals bet, take the over.

Moneyline: Alabama (-275) vs. Ohio State (+220)

While most experts agree that Alabama has been the best team all year and is the best team that will take the field in Miami, are the Tide worth -275?

Ohio State is playing too well to put money on Alabama with such a little payoff. The smart choice is to skip the moneyline bet altogether or make a modest wager on Ohio State.

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WagerHome BlogNational Championship Game Bets To Make