NFL Week 11 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on November 16, 2023

Week 10 ended with the Buffalo Bills committing a mortal football sin, having too many men on the field when the game was on the line. And because of that error, and the loss that resulted because of it, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is out of a job, and the Bills may be out of the playoffs at the end of the year.

And we go to Buffalo to begin our best bets in the NFL for Week 11.

New York Jets (+7) at Buffalo Bills

Will the Bills lose two games in a row at home and actually fall behind the Jets in the standings? Not likely, but it is worth remembering that the Jets have won two of their last three games with the Bills. Also, when they met last season in Buffalo, when the Jets were worse and the Bills were better, New York was within a score of pulling off the upset.

Zach Wilson was better at protecting the football than Josh Allen in Week 1, he was better than Allen last year too, and if he is again this Sunday, look for the Jets to cover a very generous spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) at Cleveland Browns

The big story of the week is that just days after the Cleveland Browns pulled off a big win over the Baltimore Ravens and put themselves into a very real playoff position, they’ve lost quarterback Deshaun Watson for the season.

He is having surgery on his shoulder, and he will not play again until 2024. That means the team’s success is back in the hands of P.J. Walker, and he faces T.J. Watt and the Steelers this week.

Walker has played in three games this season, and he has one touchdown to five interceptions. Look for the Steelers to pull off the win on the road against the banged up Browns.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)

The Raiders are very pleased with the way life has gone since they dumped head coach Josh McDaniels, and replaced him with Anthony Pierce. They are 2-0 and playing with enthusiasm.

But those two wins came against two of the three worst offenses in football, the Jets and Giants. This week they play the best offense in football, the Dolphins, who are averaging a full 20 points more per game than the Giants.

Is there any chance that the Raiders, with Aiden O’Connell at quarterback, can keep up with the Miami offense? In a word, no. The Raiders are allowing 27 points on the road, and the Dolphins are averaging 43.5 points at home.

Miami covers this spread.

Pay Per Head Software

These are but just three of the NFL games this weekend, which shares time with a full schedule of college football and basketball, and the NBA and NHL.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 11 Best Bets

Updated NFL Playoff Odds Before Week 11

by WagerHome Blog on November 15, 2023

On Monday night, in what was supposed to be one the easiest games left on a very difficult remaining schedule, the Bills lost to the Denver Broncos, 24-22.

Buffalo is now 5-5, just 3-5 against AFC competition, and they are currently the 10th seed in the conference.

With the meltdown currently happening in Buffalo, and the odds of them missing the playoffs now at -250, it seems like a good time to check in on the playoff odds for all the teams on the bubble.

AFC Playoff Hopefuls

The Cincinnati Bengals also lost in Week 10, and they are now 5-4 and in last place in the AFC North. But they are also still favored to be in the postseason at -135. However, that is a big drop from when the season began, and there is reason for concern in Cincinnati, especially with the Ravens coming up on a short week.

The team that beat the Bengals was the Houston Texans, and if the season ended today they would be in and the Bengals would be out. But they are still paying plus money to be a playoff team at +105.

The Cleveland Browns are just ahead of the Texans as the sixth seed in the AFC Playoffs, and even though it seems like Deshaun Watson has a new injury every week, they are -320 to make the postseason. That is the power of that defense and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Myles Garrett.

The third of the three AFC North teams currently in is the Pittsburgh Steelers, but there is a little less certainty that they will make the playoffs. The Steelers are even on making or missing, paying -110 for either bet.

NFC Playoff Hopefuls

The big story in the NFC has been the Minnesota Vikings, who refuse to die in spite of losing Kirk Cousins for the year. They have won five straight, Joshua Dobbs has won two games since he was traded for, and Minnesota is paying -200 to remain in the playoff field at season’s end.

Unlike the AFC, which has four teams currently out of the playoffs at .500 or better, all of the NFC teams below the seventh seed are below .500. In the eighth spot is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they are at +155 to make the playoffs. That’s because as bad as they have been, they’re only a game behind the Saints in the NFC South. New Orleans is paying -125 to win that division and make the postseason. Neither of these teams is a good bet to be a wild card team.

Pay Per Head Software

We still have eight weeks of the regular still to go, and all of those wagering opportunities. College football, the NBA and college basketball, the NHL – it can feel like too much if you are an independent bookmaker going it alone.

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WagerHome BlogUpdated NFL Playoff Odds Before Week 11

Best Week 10 NFL Bets

by WagerHome Blog on November 9, 2023

As we begin the second half of the NFL season, playoff chases and division races are beginning to take shape. And we now have enough of a sample size to begin seriously evaluating rookie quarterbacks.

No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud is FOR absolutely real, and this week against Joe Burrow he takes center stage.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

The record-holder for most passing yards in a game by a rookie is C.J. Stroud. Last week against the Buccaneers he threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns, in leading the Texans to a last-second win.

But that was the Bucs, who are on a four-game losing streak. The Bengals have won four straight, including impressive wins over the 49ers and Bills, and at home they will be too much for Houston. Stroud will continue to grow and impress and lock up the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Bengals will win by a touchdown and cover this spread.

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Don’t be fooled by the Packers win over the Rams. That was against backup quarterback Brett Rypien, who was so bad that his job was given to Carson Wentz the next day. The Packers are not a good team.

The Steelers might be a good team, but they definitely have a good defense that will force at least one interception out of Jordan Love. T.J. Watt is having a monster year and this Pittsburgh offense does enough to cover the field goal spread.

New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders (+1)

The Raiders feel liberated now that Josh McDaniels is no longer the head coach, and it showed in last week’s win over the Giants. The only offense in the league even close to being as bad as the Giants belongs to the Jets, and the Raiders defense should have another good game.

New York’s defense is elite, but when you have a quarterback like Zach Wilson, that’s not enough. It’s definitely not enough for them to give points. Take the Raiders.

Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills

The Denver Broncos are on a two-game winning streak, and three games in a row we’ve seen great games out of their defense. They’ve ended the long losing streak against the Chiefs, and once they play this Monday night in Buffalo, the schedule turns favorable. Could Denver go on a run?

The Bills have been so up-and-down, that the answer is yes, the Broncos could continue their winning ways this weekend. But even if they don’t win, getting more than a touchdown is too much. Take those points and the Broncos.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogBest Week 10 NFL Bets

Future Favorites as College Basketball Begins

by WagerHome Blog on November 8, 2023

The college basketball season for both men and women began on Monday, and two unusual upsets highlighted opening night.

The best women’s basketball team in the land, the LSU Tigers, were easily handled by the Colorado Buffaloes, 92-78. Frida Foremann of Colorado led the upset with 27 points and seven 3-pointers. Angel Reece, who was the NCAA Tournament Most Outstanding Player when LSU rolled to the national championship last spring, had just 15 points on 15 shots.

It was the first time a women’s defending national champion lost on opening night since 1995.

On the men’s side the No. 4 ranked Michigan State Spartans lost to James Madison, 76-74 in overtime, making it just the first time a top-five team lost to an unranked opponent on opening night since 2005. That team that lost in 2005 was Michigan State.

This was the first November home loss for the Spartans since 1986, and just the second time in school history that James Madison has beaten a ranked team.

Men’s National Championship Favorites

  • Kansas (+1000)
  • Duke (+1100)
  • Purdue (+1100)
  • Kentucky (+1200)
  • Arizona (+1400)
  • UConn (+1400)
  • Michigan State (+1800)
  • Marquette (+1800)

Kansas has made head coach Bill Self the highest paid coach in the nation, and the Jayhawks are the favorites to win another national championship. They won it in 2022, but last year they were knocked out in the second round by Arkansas.

UConn is the defending national champion, and the Huskies are tied with Arizona for the fifth shortest odds to begin the season. The Wildcats won the Pac-12 Tournament last year and were awarded a two-seed, but they were bounced in the first round by the 15th-seeded Princeton Tigers.

Michigan State has fallen to +1800 after their loss to JMU in East Lansing.

Women’s National Championship Favorites

  • UConn (+400)
  • LSU (+450)
  • Iowa (+900)
  • Utah (+950)
  • South Carolina (+1100)
  • UCLA (+1400)
  • Indiana (+1500)
  • Ohio State (+1800)

LSU has dropped behind UConn as the early favorites to win the women’s national championship. UConn holds the record with 11 women’s national championships, and this season they have Page Bueckers. She was the AP, Naismith, and John Wooden Player of the Year in 2021, but missed all of last year with a torn ACL.

She headlines a great battle for this season’s player of the year, with Reece from LSU and Caitlin Clark of Iowa. Reece is the preseason SEC Player of the Year, and Clark is the preseason Big Ten Player of the Year. Reece and Clark, and LSU and Iowa, played in the finals last year of the highest rated NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament in history.

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WagerHome BlogFuture Favorites as College Basketball Begins

NFL Best Bets for Week 9

by WagerHome Blog on November 2, 2023

We are in Week 9 of 18, and now that the trade deadline is squarely behind us, teams can either look ahead to 2024, or begin the playoff chase in earnest.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

A team firmly looking ahead is the Chicago Bears. As things sit today, they have the No. 2 and No. 3 overall picks in next year’s draft. They feel good about the trade for Montez Sweat, and their ability to sign him long-term, and they are hoping to get Justin Fields back on the field soon.

All of that is well and good, but it is no match for a Saints team that wants to win right now, and is doing so with a revived offense. New Orleans scored 38 points against the Colts, and they will put up similar points against the Bears. This is going to be a double-digit win for the home team.

Washington Commanders (+3) at New England Patriots

The Washington Commanders have turned the page to next season, now that they have traded away their two good young defensive pass rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young. But this offense is still intact, with Terry McLaurin staying put as the WR1.

Quarterback Sam Howell is developing nicely, and this team can score points. And they will score points against a Patriots team that is even more short-handed now that their only viable wide receiver, Kendrick Bourne, is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Washington is getting points, and you should take them.

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers

Matthew Stafford is banged up and it’s possible he doesn’t play this week. But Brett Rypien is an experienced backup, and he has a great trio of wide receivers to throw to against a Green Bay defense that is not playing well.

Jordan Love is also not playing well, and the Packers have looked like one of the worst teams in football over the last month of play. They are at home, but this spread is still too big. Take the Rams and the points.

NFL

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2)

The last time the Bills and Bengals met in Cincinnati in primetime, the game was canceled because of the scary incident involving Damar Hamlin. Hamlin is now fully recovered, and for the Bengals, the calf of Joe Burrow appears to be fully recovered.

When they played last season in Buffalo in the playoffs, it was all Cincinnati. There is every reason to believe that is what will also happen this Sunday night. The Bengals have won three straight games, and they will make it a fourth with a convincing win over Buffalo.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogNFL Best Bets for Week 9

NFL Best Bets for Week 8

by WagerHome Blog on October 26, 2023

NFL Best Bets for Week 8

The 49ers lost for a second straight week, the Dolphins were shut down by the Eagles, and the Bills lost to the lowly Patriots – one of four one-win teams to get a victory in Week 7.

The crazy reality show that is the NFL season marches on, and here is what we *think* will happen this weekend.

Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Ravens offense was spectacular on Sunday against the Lions, with five touchdown drives that averaged 82 yards per drive. Lamar Jackson is turning into a great pocket passer, and yet he also still ran for a touchdown in the 38-6 win.

The Baltimore defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed, and in four October games they’ve allowed just 42 points. For their end of October game in Arizona, covering the 8.5-point spread should be easy.

New York Jets at New York Giants (+138 Moneyline)

The New York Jets are the favorite over the New York Giants, in this weekend’s battle of New Jersey. But the Giants have been playing much better with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, and Saquon Barkley is looking like a guy who should have been given a long-term extension.

It’s a home game for the Giants, so the majority of MetLife Stadium will be filled with their fans. And if anyone can handle the good Jets defense, and not turn the ball over multiple times, it’s a quarterback as experienced as Taylor.

The Giants are the underdog, but the plus money you are getting with a straight up by the G-Men makes this an attractive bet. As value plays go this weekend in the NFL, this is one of the best.

Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-8)


The schedule makers must have known that the Lions would slip up against the Ravens, and would need a good bounce back opponent the next week at home, and in primetime. Enter the Las Vegas Raiders, the definition of a “get-right” team on your schedule.

The Raiders were just dominated by a bad offense being led by an undrafted rookie from a Division II school. Now they get a great offense in the Lions, led by Jared Goff, who has been outstanding for six of the seven games this year.

The Lions are angry after their loss last week, and they will take out those frustrations on a very bad Raiders team.

Pay Per Head Software

The NFL season is almost halfway over, college football is entering the best part of its schedule, and the World Series is here. Plus we have the NBA and NHL, college basketball is coming, and the NASCAR season is down to its final two races.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Best Bets for Week 8

Final NASCAR Playoff Elimination Race at Martinsville

by WagerHome Blog on October 25, 2023

You can be forgiven if you haven’t been thinking about NASCAR. This week, and for the only full week of the year, we have the NFL and college football, the beginnings of the NBA and NHL seasons, and the Major League Baseball postseason.

But the most exciting event of all this weekend might be the Xfinity 500 at Martinsville. We have half of the Cup Series Championship 4, and the other half will be decided over 500 laps at the shortest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, Martinsville Speedway.

NASCAR Odds to Win Xfinity 500

  • Denny Hamlin (+275)
  • Kyle Larson (+700)
  • William Byron (+750)
  • Brad Keselowski (+850)
  • Martin Truex Jr. (+900)
  • Ryan Blaney (+1200)
  • Joey Logano (+1400)
  • Tyler Reddick (+1500)
  • Kevin Harvick (+1800)
  • Kyle Busch (+1900)

Kyle Larson was a winner at Martinsville in April, and a win here this week would build some big momentum for him going to Phoenix in a week. Although he’s already in the Championship 4 because of his win at Las Vegas two weekends ago, and his incentives to race hard are a little less.

The other driver in the Championship 4 is Christopher Bell, who won last week at Homestead. He is just outside the top 10 for this race at +2000 to win.

Denny Hamlin is the NASCAR favorite this weekend on the strength of his five career victories at Martinsville. In all likelihood, he will need to win in order to race with the championship on the line next week in Phoenix. He’s down by 17 points, and making up that difference would require some bad runs from the drivers he’s competing with.

NASCAR

William Byron is at +750 to win this week, and he’s in a good position to qualify for next week. He doesn’t have to worry about anyone else. If he gets 36 points this weekend, something he has done in three of his last five races at Martinsville, he is automatically in the Championship 4.

Ryan Blaney is also like Byron in that as long as no one below him wins the race, and he himself runs well, he’ll be in. He has picked up at least 42 points in seven of his last nine starts at Martinsville, and if he repeats that on Sunday, he’s likely in.

NASCAR Cup Series Championship

Winning at Martinsville is a big prize, but at this time of year, it’s simply a means of getting to the real prize, next week’s NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix International Raceway.

The eight NASCAR drivers still in the race for the championship this year are Bell and Larson (in the Championship 4), Byron and Blaney (currently third and fourth), and Tyler Reddick, Martin Truex Jr., Hamlin, and Chris Buescher.

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WagerHome BlogFinal NASCAR Playoff Elimination Race at Martinsville

NFL Week 7 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on October 19, 2023

With six teams on a bye in NFL Week 7, we have a slimmed-down NFL schedule this weekend, with only 13 games.

But fewer games does not mean fewer good NFL games, and we begin our Week 7 best bets look at a really good game in Baltimore.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Jared Goff has been outstanding, the Lions are in the top 10 in both offense and defense, and their 5-1 record is tied for the best mark in the NFL. And Detroit is a road underdog at the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are good, but the Lions have been hammering teams, winning four games by double-digits. It’s not that the Ravens don’t present a challenge for the Lions, but at this point, Detroit has earned the right to not get points just because they’re on the road.

Take those points.

Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants

This is not one of the better games of the weekend, but it is one of the better bets. Yes, the Giants nearly shocked the world with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback last week in Buffalo. But that was a superior performance by Taylor against his old team. This week, he will have a letdown against an old division foe.

The Commanders look like a potential NFL Wild Card team, the Giants look like a top-five drafting team, and Washington is the better bet at MetLife Stadium.

NFL

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

The Cardinals are playing as good a football as you can play and not win games. They are just 1-5 on the season but 3-3 against the point spread.

But this week, they get one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks, and they will find the going much tougher than in weeks past. Seattle should have won last week at Cincinnati, and they will this week at home, covering the spread.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The game of the week is in Philadelphia, where the two best offenses in the NFL do battle.

They are No. 1 and No. 2 in total yards, the Dolphins lead the NFL in points, and the Eagles are fifth. They’re also both top-10 in yards per play and third down conversion rate.

But Miami has a huge edge in red zone scoring, and that is why the Dolphins should not be underdogs in this game. The Dolphins score touchdowns on 80% of their red zone trips, the Eagles score TDs on just 45%.

Miami scores more touchdowns, more points, and can beat you more ways, and that is why you should take the points.

Pay Per Head Software

A big week across the NFL and college football. The Major League Baseball postseason marches on, with the World Series just around the corner. Plus, the NBA season tips off next week. So many sports, so many bets, if you are an independent bookmaker, the only way to stay on top of it all is with a pay per head software partnership.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 7 Best Bets

With No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

by WagerHome Blog on October 17, 2023

It’s not just that the NFL’s last two remaining unbeaten teams lost on Sunday. It’s how they lost, and who they lost to.

The San Francisco 49ers were seen as the class of the league this NFL season, steamrolling their opponents, including their biggest NFL game of the year, a 42-10 Week 5 win over the Cowboys. But this week, facing a backup quarterback in P.J. Walker, the Niners lost 19-17 and managed just 215 total yards.

The Eagles hadn’t been winning by the same margins as the 49ers, but they were winning with the same frequency. But then, on Sunday, they turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions by Jalen Hurts, and they lost to the Jets, 20-14.

Who remains worthy of your Super Bowl bet?

Current Odds to Win NFL Super Bowl LVIII

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+450)
  • San Francisco 49ers (+450)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
  • Buffalo Bills (+800)
  • Miami Dolphins (+1000)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+1100)
  • Detroit Lions (+1400)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+1600)

The Kansas City Chiefs now have the longest winning streak in the NFL at five games. They aren’t blowing people out offensively, but they are playing much better defense than in years past, and their margin for victory is actually higher than last year.

The 49ers are still a great team, and a bad game against really good defense doesn’t change that. And one bad game from Brock Purdy doesn’t undo all of the good games he’s played in San Francisco.

The Buffalo Bills remain as the fourth betting favorite, but they were just one yard away from losing to the hapless Giants at home, following up on their poor performance in London. This feels like an overpay, considering how poorly they have played the last two weeks.

NFL

The Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL, and even as they begin to take some nicks – rookie running back De’Von Achane is on IR – their explosiveness hasn’t changed. They scored the final 42 points in their blowout win over the Panthers this week.

The Detroit Lions at +1400 should feel disrespected. They beat the Chiefs straight up, albeit against a Chiefs team missing two All-Pros. But all of their other wins have come by double-digits, including this week’s 20-6 easy victory on the road at Tampa Bay. Detroit’s lone loss came in overtime against a good Seattle team.

The Lions have seen improving odds each week, thanks to their 5-1 record, but both the Bills and Cowboys have more losses than the Lions and really bad losses at that.

Pay Per Head Software

This week, there is a full schedule of NFL games, with no one of the bye. There are also four games this weekend between teams in the top-25 in college football. Twenty-one of the top-25 is in action overall. Plus, we have the Major League Baseball Championship Series.

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WagerHome BlogWith No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

The NHL Drops the Puck on its 107th Season

by WagerHome Blog on October 10, 2023

NHL is back, opening the new season with a triple-header on Tuesday night, including the Vegas Golden Knights hanging their Stanley Cup championship banner.

When the league played its first season in 1917, there were just four teams (only three finished the year), and the winner of each half of the 22-game season played for the NHL Championship and the O’Brien Cup.

Toronto beat Montreal for that inaugural NHL title and then advanced to play the winners of the Pacific Coast Hockey Association, which was won by Vancouver.

Up for grabs in the meeting between Toronto and Vancouver was a trophy that had first been commissioned in 1892 and was known by the 1917-18 season as Lord Stanley’s Cup.

NHL Odds to Win the 2023-2024 Stanley Cup

  • Carolina Hurricanes (+800)
  • Toronto Maple Leafs (+900)
  • New Jersey Devils (+900)
  • Edmonton Oilers (+1000)
  • Colorado Avalanche (+1000)
  • Vegas Golden Knights (+1200)
  • New York Rangers (+1300)
  • Dallas Stars (+1400)
  • Boston Bruins (+1600)
  • Florida Panthers (+1600)

The Hurricanes won the Metropolitan Division last year but were knocked out of the playoffs by the Florida Panthers. Carolina is the preseason betting favorite to win the Cup this year, just ahead of Toronto and New Jersey.

The Oilers and Avalanche have the shortest odds in the Western Conference, followed by the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights.

NHL Odds to Win Hart Memorial Trophy

  • Connor McDavid (-105)
  • Nathan MacKinnon (+900)
  • Leon Draisaitl (+1000)
  • Matthew Tkachuk (+1200)
  • Kirill Kaprizov (+1600)
  • Auston Matthews (+1600)
  • Jack Hughes (+1800)

There are a number of good players in the NHL that you can bet on to win the Hart Memorial Trophy, given to the league’s MVP. None of them are as good as Connor McDavid, who won this trophy last season for the third time.

He led the league in goals and assists, and his 153 points last season was the most in the NHL since Mario Lemieux had 161 in 1996. Only Lemieux, Wayne Gretzky, and Steve Yzerman have scored more points in a season than McDavid.

The NHL Drops the Puck on its 107th Season

NHL Odds to Win Vezina Trophy

  • Ilya Sorokin (+400)
  • Juuse Saros (+600)
  • Igor Shesterkin (+600)
  • Connor Hellebuyck (+700)
  • Andrei Vasilevskiy (+800)
  • Jake Oettinger (+1200)
  • Linus Ullmark (+1800)

Ilya Sorokin is an Olympic gold medalist, and the Islanders goaltender is the favorite to win this Vezina Trophy, given each season to the best goalie in the league.

Igor Shesterkin of the Rangers also won a gold medal in 2018, and he is paying +600. Andrei Vasilevskiy, the great goaltender in Tampa Bay, is paying +800.

Pay Per Head Software

From now until late April, every day but six has an NHL regular season game. The NBA will be tipping off before the end of the month, baseball is in its postseason, and the NFL and college football is full speed ahead.

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WagerHome BlogThe NHL Drops the Puck on its 107th Season