best bets

Best Bets for NCAA Football Week 7

by WagerHome Blog on October 13, 2020

Week 6 of the college football season featured one of the craziest Saturdays we’ve ever seen.

We had LSU getting beaten at Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas went to quadruple overtime, and Alabama and Ole Miss combined for 111 points – prompting Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin to say, “I thought they played defense in the SEC.”

So what’s in store for week 7, and more importantly, where should you put your money? Take a look at our best bets.

Louisville at Notre Dame (-14)

Louisville has a great offense led by Malik Cunningham, so it should score some points in this one. But the Cardinals also turn the ball over too much and play suspect defense.

Notre Dame struggled out of the gate with a lackluster win over Duke, but the Irish have been more than impressive ever since and are coming off a 16-point win over Florida State.

This will be a high-scoring affair for both teams, with Notre Dame winning by at least 17 points.

LSU (+11) at Florida

No question the defending national champions were gutted this offseason, losing 37 players from last year’s team. But is LSU really a below .500 team?

Their current 1-2 record says yes, and they will be 1-3 after this weekend’s game at Florida. But the Gators have some real problems on defense, and the Tigers will keep this close.

Quarterback Kyle Trask will lead Florida to victory, but LSU covers the double-digit spread.

Clemson at Georgia Tech (+26.5)

Clemson looks every bit the No. 1 team in the country so far, but other than a game against The Citadel, the Tigers haven’t covered a spread as big as this one. Georgia Tech is better than both Wake Forest and Virginia, and both of those teams kept it to within three touchdowns. That will happen again to Clemson this week.

The Tigers win easily but fail to cover the spread.

Coastal Carolina (+7) at Louisiana

The Ragin’ Cajuns were all the rage after beating Iowa State to start the year, and deservedly so. But two lackluster wins over Georgia State and Georgia Southern (by a combined five points) has taken the bloom off the rose.

Coastal Carolina has looked dominant since it also upset a Big 12 team to open the season and does not deserve to be touchdown underdogs. Take the Chanticleers and the points.

Georgia at Alabama (-5)

The game of the week is No. 3 Georgia at No. 2 Alabama. Both teams have been dominating opponents, with Georgia winning by an average of 23 points and Alabama winning by 21.

best bets

Expect this to be a close game throughout, but the superior Tide offense will pull away in the fourth quarter and win by at least a touchdown. Alabama covers the modest five-point spread at home.

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WagerHome BlogBest Bets for NCAA Football Week 7
top nfl bets

Top NFL Bets of Week 5

by WagerHome Blog on October 8, 2020

Just like the rest of the world, the NFL is now in a position of flux, with everything dependent on players and coaches staying COVID-19-free. Figuring out the top NFL bets isn’t easy. But as long as we keep our NFL betting strategies flexible, and the league remains flexible in terms of when they will play games, everyone can still be a winner.

So with flexibility in mind, here are the top NFL bets for Week 5 and their initial point spreads. Last week had the Chiefs -7 initially, but it finished at -12 after Cam Newton was removed for his positive COVID test.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) at Chicago Bears

It doesn’t seem to matter who the Bears start at quarterback, and especially this week when the Buccaneers’ signal-caller is looking so good. Tom Brady is unlikely to throw another five touchdown passes, but each week he’s getting more in sync with his wide receivers, and that offense becomes even more dangerous.

The Bucs win this by a touchdown and cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Kansas City was lackluster against the Chargers in Week 2, then blew out the Ravens. The Chiefs sleepwalked through their game against New England, meaning they are due for another big performance.

Add in the fact that in his last four trips to Kansas City, Derek Carr has thrown as many touchdowns to the Chiefs (two pick-sixes) as he has to his own team, and this will be a blowout.

Chiefs win by 17, easily covering the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+6) at Houston Texans

It is incredible to think that a team with Deshaun Watson on it is one of the worst in the NFL. It’s also incredible to think that that team deserves to be six-point favorites over anybody.

Only the Jets and Giants are worse in point differential than the Texans, whereas Jacksonville has had opportunities to win two of its three losses.

Take the underdog Jaguars here. Romeo Crennel will have even less success than Bill O’Brien.

Los Angeles Chargers (+8) at New Orleans Saints

Michael Thomas may return for the Saints, and that will give their offense a boost. But their defense just gave up 29 to the Lions, and that is concerning.

top nfl bets

Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert has the Chargers trending in the right direction and has them playing very competitive football. Los Angeles’ three losses are by a combined 14 points, and this one will be another one-possession game at the end.

The Chargers will lose at New Orleans, but it will be by seven points or less.

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The Major League Baseball playoffs are in full swing. The sports betting world is booming, and independent bookmakers absolutely need a pay per head software partner.

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division series

Betting The 2020 MLB Division Series

by WagerHome Blog on October 6, 2020

How impressive that seven teams from the AL Central and NL Central divisions made the MLB playoffs. Equally impressive is that not one of them could get past the Wild Card round and into the Division Series. Going 0-7 is no easy feat. Let’s hope that’s not where you put your money.

Sans the Central divisions, the postseason rolls on, where it’s now a best-of-five to decide who is moving on. And for the first time this season, baseball has bubbles, with the American League playing all of its games in San Diego and Los Angeles, and the National League playing in Houston and Arlington, Texas.

In a season that only saw teams play against opponents in their own division, each of these series features an intra-division matchup.

New York Yankees (-148) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (+120)

The Yankees lost the AL East to the Rays by seven games, and in the head-to-head meetings, Tampa Bay won eight of 10. So how are the Rays the underdog in this division series?

It’s not as though the Yankees finished strong. They lost six of their final eight – a stretch without a single home run from Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gleyber Torres.

They did look good against Cleveland, but in a longer series, one big game has less impact. These teams don’t like each other, and it will be a great series, but the value rests in Tampa Bay playing as the dog.

Houston Astros (+100) vs. Oakland A’s (-121)

The A’s have been one of the best pitching staffs all season long, while the Astros have seen their offense struggle when compared to previous years. Oakland took the AL West from Houston, they won seven of 10 regular-season meetings, and they will win this series.

Houston’s “we don’t need trash cans” 2020 tour will come to a close in the next five games.

San Diego Padres (+175) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (-223)

With so many exciting young players, the desire to see the Padres take this series the distance is strong. But the Dodgers remain the favorite to win the World Series, and it’s easy to see why.

division series

Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw are an incredible 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, and just in case the pitching isn’t dominant, Los Angeles scored a baseball-best 349 runs.

One of these days, the Padres will get there. But not in this series.

Miami Marlins (+275) vs. Atlanta Braves (-358)

During the regular season, the Braves finished second in the National League in runs and home runs, but just shut out the Reds in 22 innings over a two-game sweep.

We know the Braves can crush the ball. But if they continue to pitch as they did in the Wild Card, they might be the team to beat Los Angeles, and they definitely won’t lose to the Marlins.

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week 4 best bets

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on October 1, 2020

The NFL is in full swing, so we’re taking a look at some of the Week 4 best bets for you to make.

Scoring is up around the league. We just had our first big showdown of the season when the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens played on Monday.

We’re getting MVP and record-breaking performances out of Russell Wilson each week. Josh Allen has been a revelation in Buffalo. The Chicago Bears are undefeated, as are the Pittsburgh Steelers with the return of Ben Roethlisberger.

So many great stories in this young NFL season. And so many great opportunities to cash in on wagers in Week 4.

Baltimore Ravens (-12.5) at Washington Football Team

The Ravens still fancy themselves the best team in the AFC, and they are going to be angry when they take the short trip to Washington. Lamar Jackson was completely bottled up by Kansas City, but that will not happen two weeks in a row.

Add in the fact that Dwayne Haskins is coming off a three-interception performance, and now he’ll face one of the best secondaries in football, and this has the makings of a blowout. Baltimore will win by more than two touchdowns, covering the spread.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have struggled to stop anyone with their defense, and now the Bills come to town with Josh Allen playing like a quarterback reborn. The Raiders are giving up 30 points per game, and Allen and company will easily eclipse that number in Las Vegas.

The Raiders and Derek Carr simply don’t have enough to keep up. Buffalo pulls away in the end, winning by at least a touchdown and covering the three-point spread.

Cleveland Browns (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Break up the Cleveland Browns, who are over .500 for the first time since 2014. And they are doing it with the best backfield in the entire NFL, with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Dallas defense is an absolute mess right now, even with the play of Aldon Smith.

week 4 best bets

The Cowboys will score plenty in his game, but Cleveland will keep pace. In the end, only a field goal will separate these two teams, and the Browns will cover.

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks

Russell Wilson is playing out of his mind through three weeks, and the Seahawks are a good bet to once again hit the 35-point mark. This season they’ve scored 38, 35, and 38 points. But as good as their offense has been, their defense has been equally bad, giving up 25, 30, and 31 points.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing great, and after a near-miss against Buffalo, he helped Miami score 31 in a win over Jacksonville. The Dolphins have had a few extra days of preparation for this one, which will help them keep the margin under a touchdown and cover the spread.

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mlb playoffs

MLB Playoffs Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 29, 2020

It wasn’t that long ago that we weren’t even sure there would be a 2020 Major League Baseball season. Or after several positive COVID-19 tests, that the season would finish. But here we are about to begin the biggest postseason baseball has ever had as the MLB Playoffs begin on Tuesday.

We have more teams, more games, and more excitement for October baseball than ever before. And with legalized gambling sweeping the nation, this postseason will also see more action than ever before.

We have a full eight series in the Wild Card round just waiting to be wagered.

MLB Wild Card Series Odds

American League

  • Tampa Bay Rays (-210) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+170)
  • Oakland Athletics (-135) vs. Chicago White Sox (+110)
  • Minnesota Twins (-120) vs. Houston Astros (+100)
  • New York Yankees (-135) vs. Cleveland Indians (+110)

National League

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (-300) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+240)
  • Atlanta Braves (-125) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+105)
  • Chicago Cubs (-190) vs. Miami Marlins (+160)
  • San Diego Padres (-175) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+145)

All Wild Card series are best-of-three.

Series Notes

There are some things to take note of as these brief series get underway.

The Yankees are just the fifth seed, and they lost six of their final eight games. But even with that, they are still favorites from the oddsmakers to make it all the way to the ALCS, and they are the third most likely team to win the World Series.

Game 1 features Cy Young favorite Shane Bieber against Gerrit Cole, and it will go a long way to deciding who takes this series.

Because of the expanded playoffs, some teams are playing that perhaps shouldn’t. The Miami Marlins, with a minus-41 run differential and just the 21st-best ERA in baseball (4.86), are one such team.

The last time the Marlins faced the Cubs in the postseason, the world was introduced to Steve Bartman. With no fans at the games, he will definitely not be on hand to give the Marlins an extra out. But even if he were, it’s hard to see it helping keep the Marlins’ perfect postseason record (two appearances, two World Series titles) intact.

mlb playoffs

Keep an eye on the Braves and Reds. The seventh-seeded Reds have a .212 batting average – the lowest ever for a playoff team, and the second lowest in the history of baseball. But their top three starting pitchers are as good as anyone, and much better and more consistent than No. 2 seed Atlanta’s.

A couple of long balls for Cincinnati, and a couple of dominant performances on the mound, and this could be the upset of the Wild Card round.

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football

NCAA Football Best Weekend Bets

by WagerHome Blog on September 24, 2020

The college football season rolls into what is officially week 4, but for many teams, this will be our first chance to see them on the field.

The players and coaches aren’t sure what to expect after the long layoff, which adds an extra layer of intrigue as we pick the games and point spreads that provide the most value for your betting dollar.

Florida (-14.5) at Ole Miss

Continuity is the key, as Florida returns quarterback Kyle Trask. He gives the Gators a major leg up on Ole Miss, which has a new quarterback learning a new system from new head coach Lane Kiffin.

Ole Miss had the worst pass defense in the SEC a year ago, and it has done almost nothing to improve it. Florida will have its way with the Rebels on the offensive side of the ball and win this game going away. Give the points. Florida covers easily.

Missouri (+28.5) vs. Alabama

Alabama kicks off its campaign with a trip to Columbia, Mo., to face Missouri and its new head coach, Eli Drinkwitz. Missouri is missing almost its entire passing attack from a year ago, but it does still have running back Larry Roundtree, and Drinkwitz wants to run the ball.

Alabama will look every bit the No. 2 team in the nation on offense and will win by at least three touchdowns. But the Crimson Tide’s defense is young, Mizzou’s run game is solid, and the Tigers will manage to cover against Alabama’s backups in the fourth quarter. Go with Missouri and the points.

Louisville (+2.5) at Pittsburgh

In one of the best matchups of the weekend, Louisville looks to rebound from its loss to Miami with a trip to Pittsburgh. Pitt is the higher-ranked team (No. 21 to No. 24) and is 2-0, but those wins came against Austin Peay and Syracuse. And it’s worth noting that against Syracuse, the Panthers didn’t come close to covering the spread.

football

Louisville quarterback Malik Cunningham tightens up the turnovers and leads the Cardinals to victory. Put your money on Louisville.

Kansas State (+27) at Oklahoma

No. 3 Oklahoma is a big favorite at home, as it should be after crushing Missouri State last week. But Kansas State is better than the team that lost at home to Arkansas State.

The Wildcats are being undersold here. Four times last season, Kansas State was a road underdog, and three times it ended up covering the spread.

Oklahoma will win this game easily, but the Wildcats will cover.

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nfl

NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

by WagerHome Blog on September 22, 2020

The traditional overreactions to Week 1 in the NFL were set right with Week 2. The Buccaneers offense is good, as we thought in August.

The Colts could still be a playoff team, despite that early loss to Jacksonville. And the Cowboys are definitely the class of the NFC East.

As we head into Week 3, it’s now injuries that are driving the major narratives, with teams all over the league facing life without many of their star players. And of course, that injury report informs our betting choices for this weekend’s slate of games.

Arizona Cardinals (-6) vs. Detroit Lions

The Cardinals are not only a relatively healthy team; they look fantastic. There isn’t much that Kyler Murray can’t do, and or much of a chance that the Lions defense is going to slow him down. Detroit just made Mitchell Trubisky look competent, so they’re going to make Murray feel like an MVP candidate.

The Cardinals look like a playoff team. The Lions look to be headed toward a coaching change. Take Arizona and give the points.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) vs. Houston Texans

Another healthy team is the Steelers, and Ben Roethlisberger looks completely healthy after missing all of last year. He has a host of stud wide receivers to throw to and is backed up by one of the best defenses in the league.

On the other side, the Texans aren’t stopping anyone on defense, and on offense, they’re still waiting for someone to step into the playmaker role that was vacated by DeAndre Hopkins.

It’s a tough start to the season, facing Kansas City and Baltimore out of the gate. It doesn’t get much easier against the Steelers. Take Pittsburgh to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) at Denver Broncos

The Broncos are now without quarterback Drew Lock and top wide receiver Courtland Sutton and are fading fast in the AFC West. They will fall to 0-3 this week, and the continually improving offense of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers will make this one a blowout.

In August, Denver looked like a possible contender. Ravaged by injuries a month later, Tampa Bay covers this one easily.

Los Angeles Rams (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

When you watch the Rams of 2020, it’s easy to remember how this team made it to the Super Bowl following the 2018 season. The offense looks smooth, Jared Goff once again looks like a No. 1 overall pick, and Aaron Donald makes everything more difficult for opponents.

nfl

The Bills have looked solid but against terrible competition. Josh Allen will struggle more than he has this year, and the Rams will cover this spread.

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Best NFL Teams to Bet in Week 2

by WagerHome Blog on September 17, 2020

One of the biggest things to remember after Week 1 is that this is the most unusual of opening weekends for the NFL. Most reactions to what we saw are overreactions.

This is the first time anyone has started a regular season with no actual live game action, and what we think we know today may be completely turned on its head by next Tuesday morning.

That, of course, doesn’t mean we’re taking a week off from betting, or that we can’t look at the lines for this weekend and not see real value.

Los Angeles Rams (-1) at Philadelphia Eagles

After seeing what Washington’s defensive line did to the Eagles offensive line, imagine the field day that Aaron Donald is going to have.

The Eagles looked absolutely lost in the final three quarters of their loss last Sunday, while the Rams established themselves as one to watch going forward. The quick passing game from Jared Goff and at least two sacks from Donald will lead the Rams to victory.

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Washington Football Team

No doubt about it, Kyler Murray is a star, and DeAndre Hopkins is in for a big season. If the two can look that connected against a defense like the 49ers, imagine what they can do against the rest of the league.

Washington’s defensive line was great against Carson Wentz, but Murray will run all over them. Take Arizona to cover at home.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers is never boring; you can say that much for him. But with Marlon Mack now gone for the season, Rivers simply isn’t capable of carrying this offense at this point in his career.

For the Vikings, we’re not going to overreact to their horrible three quarters against Green Bay. They put up 24 points in the fourth quarter, showing the world the Minnesota offense that we all expect to see. They will play a much more complete game at Indianapolis.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+9) at Tennessee Titans

Even with the assumption that the Titans will iron out their kicking woes and not leave so many points on the field, this game feels like it will stay close throughout. The Titans offense is good, but it’s built to plod and shorten the game’s possessions.

nfl

Meanwhile, the purge in Jacksonville hasn’t left the cupboard completely bare. Gardner Minshew is more than just a fun guy with a mustache – he’s a legitimate NFL starting quarterback. Take the Jags and the points.

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us open

2020 US Open Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 15, 2020

Our patience through the lean sports days of COVID-19 are being rewarded in spades. As if the NBA and NHL playoffs, the final weeks of the MLB season, and the opening week of the NFL isn’t enough, how about we add a major golf championship to that mix of sports betting delights?

It’s the 120th US Open, returning to Winged Foot for the first time since 2006, where over par is expected to once again be what the champion shoots. Historically speaking, this is the most difficult course that has hosted the US Open, with four of its five winners finishing the 72nd hole above par.

As for the favorite to be the last man standing on Sunday, it’s Dustin Johnson by quite a wide margin.

US Open Odds to Win

  • Dustin Johnson (+650)
  • Jon Rahm (+1100)
  • Xander Schauffele (+1400)
  • Rory McIlroy (+1400)
  • Justin Thomas (+1400)
  • Bryson Dechambeau (+1800)
  • Webb Simpson (+2000)
  • Collin Morikawa (+2000)
  • Tiger Woods (+2800)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+2800)
  • Tony Finau (+2800)

Absent from this list is the defending champion, Gary Woodland. He’s on the board at +5000 to defend his title.

The problem with Woodland is that he hasn’t won on tour since that win at Pebble Beach in 2019. He hasn’t had a bad year, with seven top-10 finishes. It’s just not enough to make him a favorite.

Tiger Woods at +2800 is an interesting number. It’s worth noting that at the 2006 US Open at Winged Foot, he failed to make the cut. However, he does come into it this year nice and rested since he missed the Tour Championship.

us open

If you have a soft spot for history, you might consider Phil Mickelson at +8000. The US Open is the one grand slam he hasn’t won.

If Mickelson were to win at Winged Foot, he would be the oldest winner of the US Open and just the sixth golfer to win the career grand slam.

One golfer you want to avoid is Rory McIlroy at +1400. For a guy who has just one top-10 finish since June, he is far too high on this list of favorites.

His driving accuracy has also been at an all-time low for him, making the tough rough at Winged Foot even rougher for him. If there is a top-10 favorite as a threat to miss the cut, it’s McIlroy.

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Fantasy Football Gems Worth Owning For NFL Week 1

by WagerHome Blog on September 10, 2020

By now, you’ve had your fantasy draft, you’ve made a few bets on the NFL’s opening weekend, and you’ve done some digging on your best daily fantasy sports options. Of course, everyone already knows that Christian McCaffrey is a stud, Lamar Jackson is going to put up mad points, and in PPR leagues, there is no wide receiver as valuable as Michael Thomas.

The key to winning, though, is finding last year’s Kenyan Drake, DeVante Parker, and Jared Cook – all guys who took major and unexpected leaps in 2019.

Darrel Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Much of the preseason hype has revolved around Chiefs rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He is the top of the depth chart in Kansas City and will benefit greatly from Andy Reid’s screen game.

But Darrel Williams also has great value. Edwards-Helaire is still just a rookie, is still learning pass blocking schemes, and is awfully small for consistent goal-line carries. Williams, on the other hand, is the experienced big body first in line to pilfer those goal-line scores.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

It seems crazy to call a future Hall of Fame quarterback a hidden gem, but that is exactly where Ben Roethlisberger is right now. He’s 38 and coming off major arm surgery, and that has him largely ignored in most fantasy formats.

Don’t make that same mistake. All signs say he’s healthy, and if you remember his last full season in 2018, he threw for more than 5,000 yards.

Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins

A lot of people are sleeping on Preston Williams. He’s coming off an injury in 2019, the Dolphins offense is a mess, and he’s going to lose targets to DeVante Parker.

All of those things are true, but what is also true is that prior to getting hurt, he was having a great rookie season. He’s now back, and he’s cheap. And he’s almost certain to outperform his draft position and DFS cost.

Chris Herndon, TE, New York Jets

A suspension and rib injury held Chris Herndon to just one game last year, and it netted him one catch for seven yards. With reason, he is one of the last tight ends coming off the board or still sitting as a free agent.

fantasy

But he’s incredibly talented, has been having a great camp, and when quarterbacks don’t have big downfield threats, they lean on their tight ends. Expect Sam Darnold to lean on Herndon, and do it early.

Herndon is going to be great this season, and in a matchup against Buffalo’s secondary in Week 1, he should see even more targets than usual.

Pay Per Head Software

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