AFC Championship Game Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on January 19, 2021

While Sunday’s NFC Championship Game is a tribute to the last generation of great quarterbacks, this year’s AFC Championship Game is a celebration of the quarterbacks that will lead the NFL for the next decade. It will be the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes hosting the No. 2 seeded Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen.

The Line: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

These teams met in Week 6 in Buffalo, and it was a grind-it-out win for the Chiefs. Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for a season-high 161 yards that night, and Allen was held to just 122 yards passing.

Allen has been terrific ever since, and Edwards-Helaire hasn’t played in a month, so this game should be much closer than the nine-point Kansas City win in October.

Buffalo Bills

This season, the Bills ended the New England Patriots’ stranglehold on the AFC East. Then the Bills ended their own 25-year playoff victory drought.

Now they are trying to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since they lost to the Cowboys in Super Bowl XXVIII in 1994.

The Bills have the NFL’s receiving champion in Stefon Diggs and a quarterback in Allen who solidified himself as one of the rising stars in the league. The Buffalo defense just held the Ravens to three points in the divisional round, and the Bills have won eight straight games.

If anyone can dethrone the defending Super Bowl champions, it’s the Bills. They will move the ball against Kansas City better than they did in the regular-season meeting, and their run defense has also improved since then.

But if the Bills are to pull the upset, they will need to force Mahomes into committing at least one big mistake.

Kansas City Chiefs

The collective hearts of Chiefs fans dropped into their shoes when Mahomes left the divisional round game against the Browns with what looked like a concussion. Now the injury is a little less clear, with some reports calling it a tweaked nerve in the neck that caused him to lose consciousness.

Whatever the case, the Chiefs organization feels confident that he will play on Sunday.

AFC Championship Game

As for the rest of the offense, there is also optimism that Edwards-Helaire will return from ankle and hip injuries that he suffered against the Saints.

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins also has a chance to return from the calf injury he suffered in Week 16 against the Falcons. He was huge in the playoffs last year for Kansas City and would be a big boost to its quest to repeat as Super Bowl champion.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogAFC Championship Game Betting Preview

Betting Totals for NFL Divisional Round Matchups

by WagerHome Blog on January 14, 2021

Don’t get so focused on wins and losses and point spreads that you forget about totals wagers for this weekend’s NFL action. The four divisional round matchups this weekend provide some really great totals betting opportunities.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (45.5)

The first game of the weekend is in Green Bay, where the weather is expected to be fine. Cold, but only light winds and no snow.

The Rams did hit the over last week against Seattle, but it was only the fifth over for them this season, to go along with 12 unders. With both Los Angeles quarterbacks fighting injury and a Rams defense that should also help contain Aaron Rodgers, at least a little, the under looks good again.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (49.5)

When the Ravens and Bills meet on Saturday night, it will be dark, cold, and with a chance of snow, though with none of the western New York wind that hampered Philip Rivers last week.

This will be a run-heavy game that will have to work to get to 50 points. Baltimore has missed the over in each of its last three games. Buffalo has hit the over in four of its last six.

Buffalo comes into the game with a top offense, but the Ravens will hold them under 30 points, which will keep the total under 50 points.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (55.5)

No problems with the weather in Kansas City, just like with the other games. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s with light winds and no rain.

divisional round matchups

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as a duo are 6-0 coming off a bye and averaging 38 points per game in each of those six wins. The Chiefs will put up points on the Browns, who have given up the over in five of their last seven games.

The Browns should also score in the mid-20s or higher, putting the total in this game much closer to 60. Definitely take the over in Kansas City.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (51.5)

The final of the divisional round matchups will be in a dome, so there will be no issues with weather.

These teams have played each other twice already this season, which usually makes for a lower scoring game the third time around because defenses have seen the offensive looks before. But Tom Brady is on fire and has hit the over in three of Tampa Bay’s last four games.

The Bucs only scored a field goal the last time out against the Saints, but they have won five in a row and averaged 36 points while doing it. New Orleans only scored 21 against Chicago but went for 52 and 33 in the two games prior to that.

This feels like a 31-27 final score, hitting the over.

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WagerHome BlogBetting Totals for NFL Divisional Round Matchups

Updated Betting Odds to Win Super Bowl LV

by WagerHome Blog on January 12, 2021

The NFL’s first-ever Super Wild Card weekend was a raging success as the playoffs make their way to Super Bowl LV. Four of the six lower seeds won on the road, showing once again that with smaller crowds comes a reduced home-field advantage.

We also saw two teams get their first playoff wins since Bill Clinton was in his first term as president.

Welcome back to the division round, Buffalo and Cleveland. And welcome to those two plucky young kids, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, who have now combined to play in 59 playoff games (42 of those by Brady).

So, now that we are down to the final eight teams remaining, where do we stand on betting on the Super Bowl LV champion?

Odds to Win Super Bowl LV

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+220)
  • Green Bay Packers (+400)
  • New Orleans Saints (+550)
  • Buffalo Bills (+600)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+800)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+900)
  • Los Angeles Rams (+2200)
  • Cleveland Browns (+2500)

There were no major upsets on Wild Card weekend. The Steelers and Seahawks lost after they were two of the favorites to make it to Super Bowl LV in February just a couple of months ago.

But much of that shine was gone by the time the playoffs began, and their absence only shifts things slightly.

The Chiefs remain the firm favorites to repeat. The Packers are next in line, trying to get Aaron Rodgers his second Super Bowl ring.

Drew Brees is also looking for a second ring, and a bet on the Saints is paying +550.

If you’re looking for value, a bet on the Browns has it. They won 11 games in the regular season, just beat their nemesis, the Steelers, and have a great running game.

Odds to Win AFC

  • Kansas City Chiefs (-125)
  • Buffalo Bills (+290)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+400)
  • Cleveland Browns (+1200)

It’s unusual to see a team paying negative numbers with still four playoff teams remaining, but that’s where things stand with the Chiefs. One of the reasons for that is Patrick Mahomes and his 4-1 postseason record.

When it comes to the matchup between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, bookmakers think Allen has the better chance of making it to February.

Odds to Win NFC

super bowl lv

  • Green Bay Packers (+130)
  • New Orleans Saints (+200)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+360)
  • Los Angeles Rams (+900)

Brees and Brady meet this week in New Orleans, and odds say that the Saints will beat the Bucs for a third time this season. But when going to play the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, the outdoors is predicted to be unkind to Brees.

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WagerHome BlogUpdated Betting Odds to Win Super Bowl LV

National Championship Game Bets To Make

by WagerHome Blog on January 7, 2021

The 2020 national title will be decided on Monday night when the Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in the National Championship Game in Miami.

The current word is that Ohio State is struggling with a number of positive COVID-19 tests. But the game is still on for Monday and is likely to remain that way.

The Buckeyes will be without some members of their team when they play Alabama, as they were against Clemson in the CFP semifinal. As long as that number doesn’t rise significantly, the show will go on.

The Line: Alabama (-7.5)

The top-ranked Crimson Tide head into the game as just over a touchdown favorite, which is good for Alabama fans. When favored by seven points or less, Alabama has lost against the spread in five of its last eight games. So as long as the spread stays 7.5 or above, that history remains moot.

What is relevant is that even though Alabama was an impressive 8-4 against the spread in 2020, it has failed to cover in each of this season’s postseason games – the SEC Championship Game (six-point win over Florida) and the CFP semifinal (17-point win over Notre Dame.)

Ohio State was only the underdog once this year – its semifinal game against Clemson – and the Buckeyes beat that spread by an impressive 28 points.

Take the Buckeyes and the points.

Over/Under: 74.5

The game total opened at 76.5 and has come down two full points. That could be the result of the COVID-19 news coming out of Columbus. But we know that both of these teams can and will score regardless of which pieces are missing on Monday.

Justin Fields just went for six touchdowns against Clemson, and Alabama’s pass defense ranks only 82nd in the country. Ohio State has scored 52, 49, 42, 52, and 49 points in games this season. The Buckeyes can score.

So who does Alabama have? Just the most recent Heisman Trophy winner, wide receiver DeVonta Smith, and his quarterback, Mac Jones, who finished third in Heisman voting.

national championship game

There’s also running back Najee Harris, who finished fifth in the Heisman voting. How is that for a three-headed offensive monster?

Only twice this year did Alabama fail to break 40 points – at Missouri and against Notre Dame. But six times, the Crimson Tide broke 50 points, including 63 points each against Mississippi and Kentucky.

If you want to place a totals bet, take the over.

Moneyline: Alabama (-275) vs. Ohio State (+220)

While most experts agree that Alabama has been the best team all year and is the best team that will take the field in Miami, are the Tide worth -275?

Ohio State is playing too well to put money on Alabama with such a little payoff. The smart choice is to skip the moneyline bet altogether or make a modest wager on Ohio State.

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WagerHome BlogNational Championship Game Bets To Make

NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on January 5, 2021

The NFL Wild Card Weekend was already one of the best on the betting calendar. But with the new super-sized playoff field, we are getting six of the best games of the season instead of just four.

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Saturday’s Top Game – Rams at Seahawks

There are three games on Saturday, including Colts at Bills (-6.5) and Buccaneers (-8.5) at Washington. But the best matchup of the day is the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Seattle Seahawks (-4.5).

For the first half of the season, Seattle’s offense was one of the best in the NFL, and Russell Wilson was making a serious run at his first MVP award. The problem was the Seahawks defense, which was a sieve.

The script flipped in the final eight games. Wilson was held to less than 200 yards three times, while Jamal Adams turned the Seattle defense into a solid asset. However, Adams is now hurt, and his status for Saturday is in doubt.

We all know about the Rams defense and Aaron Donald. The question mark is quarterback Jared Goff, who missed Week 17 after breaking his thumb.

The plan is to have Goff back by Saturday, which could be key. When the Rams beat the Seahawks back in November, he paced the victory with 302 yards passing. In that game, Wilson threw two interceptions and was sacked six times.

Sunday’s Top Game – Titans at Ravens

There are three more games on Sunday, including the Saints (-10.5) hosting the Bears and the Browns breaking their long playoff drought with a trip to Pittsburgh (-4.5). But the early game on Sunday is the Ravens (-3.5) at Tennessee, and it has classic written all over it.

NFL Wild Card Weekend

The Ravens are the best running team in the NFL and just had 404 yards on the ground against Cincinnati. But on the other sideline, you have the best running back in the league in Derrick Henry, who just became the eighth player in NFL history to top 2,000 yards rushing in a single season.

Baltimore was the top seed a year ago, Lamar Jackson was the MVP, and none of that mattered to Tennessee. It was the Titans winning in the postseason and advancing to the AFC Championship Game. And in the much-anticipated rematch in November, again Tennessee prevailed with a 29-yard Henry touchdown in overtime.

This feels like a final-possession-winning-drive type of game.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

Get to Pay Per Head Bookies for NFL Week 17 Betting

by WagerHome Blog on December 31, 2020

If you are an independent bookmaker, or you place bets with an independent bookie, make sure to get connected to a pay per head service provider before NFL Week 17 begins on Sunday. There are so many great games to bet and so many playoff positions still to be settled, you don’t want to short change your action by failing to act by Sunday.

Important AFC Games in NFL Week 17

There are five games in the AFC that will help decide the rest of the postseason field. They are:

  • Miami at Buffalo (-3)
  • Baltimore (-12) at Cincinnati
  • Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-9.5)
  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-14.5)
  • Tennessee (-7) at Houston

If Miami beats Buffalo, then it clinches a Wild Card berth. But even if the Bills win, the Dolphins can still make the playoffs if the Ravens, Browns, or Colts lose. It does not need to be all three.

A loss by one of those teams sends Miami to the postseason. As for Buffalo, the No. 2 seed in the AFC is still in play.

The Ravens also get into the playoffs if they win, or the Browns or Colts lose. The Steelers are resting their starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, and if the Browns can beat the Pittsburgh backups, then Cleveland ends its 18-year playoff drought.

If the Titans win, they are in, though they can still get in with a loss. By losing last week, Indianapolis is the only team not in control of its own destiny.

If Indianapolis wins and either the Titans, Ravens, Browns, or Dolphins lose, the Colts are in the playoffs.

Important NFC Games in NFL Week 17

  • Dallas (-3) at New York Giants
  • Green Bay (-5) at Chicago
  • Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
  • Seattle (-5) at San Francisco
  • New Orleans (-6) at Carolina
  • Washington (-1) at Philadelphia

Six of the eight NFC games could impact the playoff bracket, and the NFC East still has three teams that could win it.

nfl week 17

A Dallas win and a Washington loss gives the division to the Cowboys. The Giants win the division if they beat Dallas and Washington loses.

Washington, with Taylor Heinicke starting at quarterback, is in control of its own destiny and only needs to beat the Eagles.

The Packers, Saints, and Seahawks all still have a chance at the top seed and the first-round bye. A Green Bay win and the Packers get it.

The Saints get the bye if they win, Green Bay loses, and Seattle wins. The Seahawks get the bye if they win and both Green Bay and New Orleans lose.

The last game of importance is Arizona at the Rams, as an Arizona win puts it in the playoffs. If the Cardinals lose, the Rams are in, as are the Bears. What happens to the Bears in their game against Green Bay does not matter.

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WagerHome BlogGet to Pay Per Head Bookies for NFL Week 17 Betting

Betting College Football Playoff with Pay Per Head Bookies

by WagerHome Blog on December 29, 2020

There is so much sports on the calendar this week that it’s almost easy to forget that the three biggest games of the college football season are yet to be played. That changes on New Year’s Day when the semifinals of the College Football Playoff kick off, and the eventual national champion takes one step closer to the title.

It also leads us right into the final week of the NFL regular season and the sports betting bonanza that is the month of January.

Rose Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Alabama (-19.5)

Only the year 2020 could give us a Rose Bowl game played in Arlington, Texas, and Notre Dame making the game as a representative from the ACC. But since 2021 will be upon us by the time this game begins, let’s talk about the football.

Notre Dame is very good. The Fighting Irish beat Clemson earlier in the season, only to lose to the Tigers in the ACC Championship Game. That is the only blemish on an otherwise stellar record that comes from Notre Dame playing great defense and featuring an offensive line that is one of the best in the country.

That offensive line will be key because it absolutely has to keep the Notre Dame offense humming against Alabama. Even with a great Irish defense, we know Alabama is going to score.

Both quarterback Mac Jones and wide receiver DeVonta Smith are Heisman Trophy finalists, and running back Najee Harris just missed the cut as the fifth-highest vote-getter.

Can Notre Dame keep pace with Alabama? The bookmakers clearly don’t think so.

Sugar Bowl – Ohio State vs. Clemson (-7.5)

As soon as Clemson closed out its victory over Ohio State in the semifinals last year, this was the rematch we all hoped to see. It was a heavyweight fight between two teams with two great quarterbacks, who amazingly are even better this season.

college football playoff

This is Clemson’s sixth trip to the College Football Playoff semifinals, and it’s worth noting that the Tigers are 4-1 against the spread in the previous five. Ohio State finds itself in the unusual position of being the underdog in this one. Since 2012, the Buckeyes are 7-1 against the spread when playing as the underdog, with that lone loss coming to Clemson and Trevor Lawrence at the Fiesta Bowl a year ago.

Both teams are ready for a battle, and it’s hard to believe that Clemson will win this by more than a touchdown. The Tigers are more battle-tested than Ohio State, having played 11 games to OSU’s six, but that may also mean the Buckeyes are healthier.

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WagerHome BlogBetting College Football Playoff with Pay Per Head Bookies

Christmas Day Opens Door for Nice Multiple Sports Parlay

by WagerHome Blog on December 24, 2020

If you are an independent bookmaker or just someone who has thought about opening your own bookmaking shop, you already know about the NBA showcase on Christmas Day. It’s the biggest day on pro basketball’s regular-season television calendar.

But with Christmas falling on a Friday this year – which is close enough to the weekend for the NFL to jump on board – we’re getting two professional sports on one big day. Add in a college bowl game and three college basketball games involving Top 25 teams, and it’s a sports betting Christmas Miracle.

NBA Lineup

From right after you open the presents under your tree to right before you go to bed, there are five of the best NBA matchups of the season to watch and wager.

  • New Orleans Pelicans Miami at Heat (-5)
  • Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks (-8)
  • Brooklyn Nets (-1) at Boston Celtics
  • Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (-6)
  • LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets (Pick)

The day starts with last season’s Eastern Conference champion, the Heat, hosting Lonzo Ball, Zion Williamson, and the New Orleans Pelicans. Next, the favorite to win the East this season, the Milwaukee Bucks, host a returning Stephen Curry and the Warriors.

Then, the Celtics, a conference finalist a season ago, host the Nets, who are led by a now-healthy Kevin Durant.

In the Western Conference, the defending NBA champion Lakers continue the defense of their title against the Mavericks. The two biggest challengers to the Lakers, the Clippers and Nuggets, finish off the night in Denver.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans sports fans have a full day, starting with the Pelicans and ending with the Saints and their effort to stay as the NFC’s second seed. The Saints are seven-point favorites over the sliding Minnesota Vikings, who see their Wild Card hopes on life support.

christmas dayIt’s the second game for Drew Brees since he came back from broken ribs, and it will be the second game since Michael Thomas was placed on injured reserve. The rushing title is Derrick Henry’s to lose, but the Vikings’ Dalvin Cook leads the NFL in total yards from scrimmage and is on pace to break 2,100 yards.

College Sports Schedule

Adding to the mix of great Christmas Day professional sports is the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Ala. Both Marshall and Buffalo began the season with long winning streaks but head into their bowl matchup after each taking a loss. Buffalo is favored by 3.5 points, and the over/under is 53.5.

College basketball has four Big Ten games on its schedule, including three games involving ranked teams.

  • No. 9 Wisconsin at No. 12 Michigan State
  • No. 19 Michigan at Nebraska
  • No. 4 Iowa at Minnesota

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WagerHome BlogChristmas Day Opens Door for Nice Multiple Sports Parlay

College Football Championship Saturday Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on December 17, 2020

There were false starts, cancellations, postponements, and held breaths for most of the college football season. But here we are. We made it. The weekend of conference championship games is ready to kick off.

Big 12 – Oklahoma Sooners (-5.5) vs. Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State beat Oklahoma the first time these two teams met, 37-30. Since that loss, Oklahoma has won six straight games, and they’ve gone 5-1 against the spread over that streak. Meanwhile, the Cyclones have won five straight and covered the spread in each of their last three wins.

This will be a high scoring game, but close. And with a game likely to finish inside a touchdown, the safe bet is to take the points. Sooners will win but will not cover.

Big Ten – Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes (-20.5)

COVID-19 almost knocked Ohio State out of this game, and it wasn’t even their own positive tests. But the Big Ten ultimately righted that wrong, changed its rules, and put its best team in the conference’s championship game.

Northwestern is no push-over. They’ve had a great and balanced offense all season and earned their way into Championship Saturday by giving up just 14 points per game. Northwestern hasn’t advanced enough to win this game, but they will keep the margin under 20. Take the points.

SEC – Alabama Crimson Tide (-17) vs. Florida Gators

In the 29 year history of the SEC Championship, the Alabama Crimson Tide have been in the game 13 times. They’ve won it eight previous times, and this will be their ninth win. Florida needs this game for any chance to be considered for the College Football Playoff, but they will fall short.

Florida has a great passing attack that will find some success. But Alabama has covered the spread in six straight games, and this will be a seventh. Take the Tide and lay the points.

ACC – Clemson Tigers (-10.5) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

These two teams met earlier in the college football season, with Notre Dame winning in overtime, 47-40. But there was no Trevor Lawrence in that game. Of course, Lawrence doesn’t play defense, and the Irish had their way with the Tiger defense, topping 500 total yards.

Lawrence will be the difference in the rematch, and the Tigers should win their sixth straight ACC Championship. But Notre Dame hasn’t lost a game by double digits in more than 14 months, and the Irish offense is good enough to stay close to anyone. 

Take the points. Clemson will fail to cover.

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WagerHome BlogCollege Football Championship Saturday Betting Picks

Updated NFL Playoff Picture After Week 13

by WagerHome Blog on December 8, 2020

It’s December in the NFL, which means that we are officially in the final quarter of the season. And that means it’s time to check in on the current NFL playoff picture and see who’s in, who’s out, and who is still in the hunt.

NFC Division Leaders

  • NFC South – New Orleans (10-2)
  • NFC North – Green Bay (9-3)
  • NFC West – Los Angeles Rams (8-4)
  • NFC East – New York Giants (5-7)

New Orleans has a three-game lead in the NFC South and is clearly in command of the division. They’re also on top of the conference thanks to a nine-game winning streak.

The Saints still have a game against the Kansas City Chiefs, and if they slip, the Packers own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The NFC East has been a punchline all season, but the Giants now have four straight wins and are in position to host a playoff game.

NFC Wild Card

  • Seattle (fifth seed)
  • Tampa Bay (sixth seed)
  • Minnesota (seventh seed)

Seattle is actually tied with the Rams but is relegated to the Wild Card because of a tiebreaker. But the NFC West is far from settled.

Although winning the division sets up a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the top Wild Card will play the NFC East champion. So losing the division does come with perks.

Arizona is currently tied with Minnesota for the seventh seed but drops out of the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. However, the Vikings still play the Buccaneers and Saints, giving the Cardinals the easier schedule down the stretch.

Amazingly, as we enter Week 14, not a single NFC team has been eliminated from playoff contention.

AFC Division Leaders

  • AFC North – Pittsburgh (11-1)
  • AFC West – Kansas City (11-1)
  • AFC East – Buffalo (9-3)
  • AFC South – Tennessee (8-4)

The top seed is down to two teams – Pittsburgh and Kansas City. The Chiefs can only catch the Steelers if Pittsburgh loses a game inside the AFC.

Losing to Washington on Monday did not hurt the Steelers too badly. Kansas City has two difficult games remaining, with trips to Miami and New Orleans. The Steelers still have to play the Bills, Browns, and Colts.

nfl playoff picture

AFC Wild Card

  • Cleveland (fifth seed)
  • Miami (sixth seed)
  • Indianapolis (seventh seed)

Before the season ends, we can expect to see a number of moves among the Wild Card teams. Both Miami and Indianapolis are in range of winning their divisions, but be sure to circle Week 17 on your calendar.

The Bills and Dolphins play in the final week of the season, possibly to decide who wins the division and who settles for the Wild Card.

The Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets have all been eliminated from playoff contention.

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WagerHome BlogUpdated NFL Playoff Picture After Week 13