NFL Thanksgiving Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on November 21, 2023

Since 1934 the Thanksgiving holiday has featured a Detroit Lions home game. The Dallas Cowboys joined the holiday action in 1966, hosting their own annual Thanksgiving Day game. A third game was added in primetime in 2006, and now in 2023 we get a fourth game on Black Friday.

The best American holiday keeps getting better.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7.5)

The Lions have been underdogs in 11 of their previous 15 Thanksgiving Day games, but this Lions team is now one of the best in the NFC, and they are the deserved favorite over the Green Bay Packers.

The Lions are 8-2 this season and they are tied for an NFL-best 7-3 against the spread. Meanwhile the Packers have covered in just two of their last seven games, and when they faced Detroit in Green Bay earlier this season, they lost by 14 points.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-11)

The last time these two teams played, last January, the Commanders won 26-6 and easily covered the spread. It was Week 18, but Dallas wasn’t resting anyone. They weren’t playing a skeleton crew in preparation for the playoffs. They just got their butts kicked, plain and simple.

This Commanders team in theory is better than that team, but this Cowboys team is certainly better. They are playing great football on both sides of the ball, and they have covered double-digit spreads in each of the previous two weeks.

San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll says that despite the bruised tricep quarterback Geno Smith suffered last week, he will play on Thursday night against the 49ers. And that’s a good thing, because the Seahawks need all hands on deck when playing against the 49ers offense.

No offense looks better than San Francisco’s, and Seattle’s only hope is to score a lot of points themselves. It will be tougher without Kenneth Walker, who is out with an oblique injury. And it will be tough against a pretty good San Francisco front-seven that should harass Smith all game long.

Miami Dolphins (-10) at New York Jets

If you do not want to get into fist fights at Target over a half-price television, the NFL has your back. For the first time ever we get an NFL game on Black Friday, with the Dolphins visiting the New York Jets.

Miami has the offense, the Jets have the defense, and the Jets also have a new quarterback. Head coach Robert Saleh has moved Zach Wilson to third string, and handed over the offense to Tim Boyle, a 29-year-old five-year pro who made three starts for the Lions back in 2021. Trevor Siemian will serve as his backup on Friday.

Pay Per Head Software

It is an action packed holiday weekend filled with NFL and college football, the NBA and college basketball, and the NHL.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Thanksgiving Betting Preview

NFL Week 11 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on November 16, 2023

Week 10 ended with the Buffalo Bills committing a mortal football sin, having too many men on the field when the game was on the line. And because of that error, and the loss that resulted because of it, offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey is out of a job, and the Bills may be out of the playoffs at the end of the year.

And we go to Buffalo to begin our best bets in the NFL for Week 11.

New York Jets (+7) at Buffalo Bills

Will the Bills lose two games in a row at home and actually fall behind the Jets in the standings? Not likely, but it is worth remembering that the Jets have won two of their last three games with the Bills. Also, when they met last season in Buffalo, when the Jets were worse and the Bills were better, New York was within a score of pulling off the upset.

Zach Wilson was better at protecting the football than Josh Allen in Week 1, he was better than Allen last year too, and if he is again this Sunday, look for the Jets to cover a very generous spread.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) at Cleveland Browns

The big story of the week is that just days after the Cleveland Browns pulled off a big win over the Baltimore Ravens and put themselves into a very real playoff position, they’ve lost quarterback Deshaun Watson for the season.

He is having surgery on his shoulder, and he will not play again until 2024. That means the team’s success is back in the hands of P.J. Walker, and he faces T.J. Watt and the Steelers this week.

Walker has played in three games this season, and he has one touchdown to five interceptions. Look for the Steelers to pull off the win on the road against the banged up Browns.

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)

The Raiders are very pleased with the way life has gone since they dumped head coach Josh McDaniels, and replaced him with Anthony Pierce. They are 2-0 and playing with enthusiasm.

But those two wins came against two of the three worst offenses in football, the Jets and Giants. This week they play the best offense in football, the Dolphins, who are averaging a full 20 points more per game than the Giants.

Is there any chance that the Raiders, with Aiden O’Connell at quarterback, can keep up with the Miami offense? In a word, no. The Raiders are allowing 27 points on the road, and the Dolphins are averaging 43.5 points at home.

Miami covers this spread.

Pay Per Head Software

These are but just three of the NFL games this weekend, which shares time with a full schedule of college football and basketball, and the NBA and NHL.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 11 Best Bets

Updated NFL Playoff Odds Before Week 11

by WagerHome Blog on November 15, 2023

On Monday night, in what was supposed to be one the easiest games left on a very difficult remaining schedule, the Bills lost to the Denver Broncos, 24-22.

Buffalo is now 5-5, just 3-5 against AFC competition, and they are currently the 10th seed in the conference.

With the meltdown currently happening in Buffalo, and the odds of them missing the playoffs now at -250, it seems like a good time to check in on the playoff odds for all the teams on the bubble.

AFC Playoff Hopefuls

The Cincinnati Bengals also lost in Week 10, and they are now 5-4 and in last place in the AFC North. But they are also still favored to be in the postseason at -135. However, that is a big drop from when the season began, and there is reason for concern in Cincinnati, especially with the Ravens coming up on a short week.

The team that beat the Bengals was the Houston Texans, and if the season ended today they would be in and the Bengals would be out. But they are still paying plus money to be a playoff team at +105.

The Cleveland Browns are just ahead of the Texans as the sixth seed in the AFC Playoffs, and even though it seems like Deshaun Watson has a new injury every week, they are -320 to make the postseason. That is the power of that defense and Defensive Player of the Year favorite Myles Garrett.

The third of the three AFC North teams currently in is the Pittsburgh Steelers, but there is a little less certainty that they will make the playoffs. The Steelers are even on making or missing, paying -110 for either bet.

NFC Playoff Hopefuls

The big story in the NFC has been the Minnesota Vikings, who refuse to die in spite of losing Kirk Cousins for the year. They have won five straight, Joshua Dobbs has won two games since he was traded for, and Minnesota is paying -200 to remain in the playoff field at season’s end.

Unlike the AFC, which has four teams currently out of the playoffs at .500 or better, all of the NFC teams below the seventh seed are below .500. In the eighth spot is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they are at +155 to make the playoffs. That’s because as bad as they have been, they’re only a game behind the Saints in the NFC South. New Orleans is paying -125 to win that division and make the postseason. Neither of these teams is a good bet to be a wild card team.

Pay Per Head Software

We still have eight weeks of the regular still to go, and all of those wagering opportunities. College football, the NBA and college basketball, the NHL – it can feel like too much if you are an independent bookmaker going it alone.

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WagerHome BlogUpdated NFL Playoff Odds Before Week 11

Best Week 10 NFL Bets

by WagerHome Blog on November 9, 2023

As we begin the second half of the NFL season, playoff chases and division races are beginning to take shape. And we now have enough of a sample size to begin seriously evaluating rookie quarterbacks.

No. 2 overall pick C.J. Stroud is FOR absolutely real, and this week against Joe Burrow he takes center stage.

Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)

The record-holder for most passing yards in a game by a rookie is C.J. Stroud. Last week against the Buccaneers he threw for 470 yards and five touchdowns, in leading the Texans to a last-second win.

But that was the Bucs, who are on a four-game losing streak. The Bengals have won four straight, including impressive wins over the 49ers and Bills, and at home they will be too much for Houston. Stroud will continue to grow and impress and lock up the Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the Bengals will win by a touchdown and cover this spread.

Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Don’t be fooled by the Packers win over the Rams. That was against backup quarterback Brett Rypien, who was so bad that his job was given to Carson Wentz the next day. The Packers are not a good team.

The Steelers might be a good team, but they definitely have a good defense that will force at least one interception out of Jordan Love. T.J. Watt is having a monster year and this Pittsburgh offense does enough to cover the field goal spread.

New York Jets at Las Vegas Raiders (+1)

The Raiders feel liberated now that Josh McDaniels is no longer the head coach, and it showed in last week’s win over the Giants. The only offense in the league even close to being as bad as the Giants belongs to the Jets, and the Raiders defense should have another good game.

New York’s defense is elite, but when you have a quarterback like Zach Wilson, that’s not enough. It’s definitely not enough for them to give points. Take the Raiders.

Denver Broncos (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills

The Denver Broncos are on a two-game winning streak, and three games in a row we’ve seen great games out of their defense. They’ve ended the long losing streak against the Chiefs, and once they play this Monday night in Buffalo, the schedule turns favorable. Could Denver go on a run?

The Bills have been so up-and-down, that the answer is yes, the Broncos could continue their winning ways this weekend. But even if they don’t win, getting more than a touchdown is too much. Take those points and the Broncos.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogBest Week 10 NFL Bets

NFL Best Bets for Week 9

by WagerHome Blog on November 2, 2023

We are in Week 9 of 18, and now that the trade deadline is squarely behind us, teams can either look ahead to 2024, or begin the playoff chase in earnest.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

A team firmly looking ahead is the Chicago Bears. As things sit today, they have the No. 2 and No. 3 overall picks in next year’s draft. They feel good about the trade for Montez Sweat, and their ability to sign him long-term, and they are hoping to get Justin Fields back on the field soon.

All of that is well and good, but it is no match for a Saints team that wants to win right now, and is doing so with a revived offense. New Orleans scored 38 points against the Colts, and they will put up similar points against the Bears. This is going to be a double-digit win for the home team.

Washington Commanders (+3) at New England Patriots

The Washington Commanders have turned the page to next season, now that they have traded away their two good young defensive pass rushers, Montez Sweat and Chase Young. But this offense is still intact, with Terry McLaurin staying put as the WR1.

Quarterback Sam Howell is developing nicely, and this team can score points. And they will score points against a Patriots team that is even more short-handed now that their only viable wide receiver, Kendrick Bourne, is out for the season with a torn ACL.

Washington is getting points, and you should take them.

Los Angeles Rams (+3.5) at Green Bay Packers

Matthew Stafford is banged up and it’s possible he doesn’t play this week. But Brett Rypien is an experienced backup, and he has a great trio of wide receivers to throw to against a Green Bay defense that is not playing well.

Jordan Love is also not playing well, and the Packers have looked like one of the worst teams in football over the last month of play. They are at home, but this spread is still too big. Take the Rams and the points.

NFL

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2)

The last time the Bills and Bengals met in Cincinnati in primetime, the game was canceled because of the scary incident involving Damar Hamlin. Hamlin is now fully recovered, and for the Bengals, the calf of Joe Burrow appears to be fully recovered.

When they played last season in Buffalo in the playoffs, it was all Cincinnati. There is every reason to believe that is what will also happen this Sunday night. The Bengals have won three straight games, and they will make it a fourth with a convincing win over Buffalo.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogNFL Best Bets for Week 9

NFL Best Bets for Week 8

by WagerHome Blog on October 26, 2023

NFL Best Bets for Week 8

The 49ers lost for a second straight week, the Dolphins were shut down by the Eagles, and the Bills lost to the lowly Patriots – one of four one-win teams to get a victory in Week 7.

The crazy reality show that is the NFL season marches on, and here is what we *think* will happen this weekend.

Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Ravens offense was spectacular on Sunday against the Lions, with five touchdown drives that averaged 82 yards per drive. Lamar Jackson is turning into a great pocket passer, and yet he also still ran for a touchdown in the 38-6 win.

The Baltimore defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in points allowed, and in four October games they’ve allowed just 42 points. For their end of October game in Arizona, covering the 8.5-point spread should be easy.

New York Jets at New York Giants (+138 Moneyline)

The New York Jets are the favorite over the New York Giants, in this weekend’s battle of New Jersey. But the Giants have been playing much better with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback, and Saquon Barkley is looking like a guy who should have been given a long-term extension.

It’s a home game for the Giants, so the majority of MetLife Stadium will be filled with their fans. And if anyone can handle the good Jets defense, and not turn the ball over multiple times, it’s a quarterback as experienced as Taylor.

The Giants are the underdog, but the plus money you are getting with a straight up by the G-Men makes this an attractive bet. As value plays go this weekend in the NFL, this is one of the best.

Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions (-8)


The schedule makers must have known that the Lions would slip up against the Ravens, and would need a good bounce back opponent the next week at home, and in primetime. Enter the Las Vegas Raiders, the definition of a “get-right” team on your schedule.

The Raiders were just dominated by a bad offense being led by an undrafted rookie from a Division II school. Now they get a great offense in the Lions, led by Jared Goff, who has been outstanding for six of the seven games this year.

The Lions are angry after their loss last week, and they will take out those frustrations on a very bad Raiders team.

Pay Per Head Software

The NFL season is almost halfway over, college football is entering the best part of its schedule, and the World Series is here. Plus we have the NBA and NHL, college basketball is coming, and the NASCAR season is down to its final two races.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Best Bets for Week 8

NFL Week 7 Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on October 19, 2023

With six teams on a bye in NFL Week 7, we have a slimmed-down NFL schedule this weekend, with only 13 games.

But fewer games does not mean fewer good NFL games, and we begin our Week 7 best bets look at a really good game in Baltimore.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Baltimore Ravens

Jared Goff has been outstanding, the Lions are in the top 10 in both offense and defense, and their 5-1 record is tied for the best mark in the NFL. And Detroit is a road underdog at the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens are good, but the Lions have been hammering teams, winning four games by double-digits. It’s not that the Ravens don’t present a challenge for the Lions, but at this point, Detroit has earned the right to not get points just because they’re on the road.

Take those points.

Washington Commanders (-2.5) at New York Giants

This is not one of the better games of the weekend, but it is one of the better bets. Yes, the Giants nearly shocked the world with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback last week in Buffalo. But that was a superior performance by Taylor against his old team. This week, he will have a letdown against an old division foe.

The Commanders look like a potential NFL Wild Card team, the Giants look like a top-five drafting team, and Washington is the better bet at MetLife Stadium.

NFL

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)

The Cardinals are playing as good a football as you can play and not win games. They are just 1-5 on the season but 3-3 against the point spread.

But this week, they get one of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks, and they will find the going much tougher than in weeks past. Seattle should have won last week at Cincinnati, and they will this week at home, covering the spread.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

The game of the week is in Philadelphia, where the two best offenses in the NFL do battle.

They are No. 1 and No. 2 in total yards, the Dolphins lead the NFL in points, and the Eagles are fifth. They’re also both top-10 in yards per play and third down conversion rate.

But Miami has a huge edge in red zone scoring, and that is why the Dolphins should not be underdogs in this game. The Dolphins score touchdowns on 80% of their red zone trips, the Eagles score TDs on just 45%.

Miami scores more touchdowns, more points, and can beat you more ways, and that is why you should take the points.

Pay Per Head Software

A big week across the NFL and college football. The Major League Baseball postseason marches on, with the World Series just around the corner. Plus, the NBA season tips off next week. So many sports, so many bets, if you are an independent bookmaker, the only way to stay on top of it all is with a pay per head software partnership.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Week 7 Best Bets

With No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

by WagerHome Blog on October 17, 2023

It’s not just that the NFL’s last two remaining unbeaten teams lost on Sunday. It’s how they lost, and who they lost to.

The San Francisco 49ers were seen as the class of the league this NFL season, steamrolling their opponents, including their biggest NFL game of the year, a 42-10 Week 5 win over the Cowboys. But this week, facing a backup quarterback in P.J. Walker, the Niners lost 19-17 and managed just 215 total yards.

The Eagles hadn’t been winning by the same margins as the 49ers, but they were winning with the same frequency. But then, on Sunday, they turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions by Jalen Hurts, and they lost to the Jets, 20-14.

Who remains worthy of your Super Bowl bet?

Current Odds to Win NFL Super Bowl LVIII

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+450)
  • San Francisco 49ers (+450)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (+750)
  • Buffalo Bills (+800)
  • Miami Dolphins (+1000)
  • Dallas Cowboys (+1100)
  • Detroit Lions (+1400)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+1600)

The Kansas City Chiefs now have the longest winning streak in the NFL at five games. They aren’t blowing people out offensively, but they are playing much better defense than in years past, and their margin for victory is actually higher than last year.

The 49ers are still a great team, and a bad game against really good defense doesn’t change that. And one bad game from Brock Purdy doesn’t undo all of the good games he’s played in San Francisco.

The Buffalo Bills remain as the fourth betting favorite, but they were just one yard away from losing to the hapless Giants at home, following up on their poor performance in London. This feels like an overpay, considering how poorly they have played the last two weeks.

NFL

The Dolphins have the best offense in the NFL, and even as they begin to take some nicks – rookie running back De’Von Achane is on IR – their explosiveness hasn’t changed. They scored the final 42 points in their blowout win over the Panthers this week.

The Detroit Lions at +1400 should feel disrespected. They beat the Chiefs straight up, albeit against a Chiefs team missing two All-Pros. But all of their other wins have come by double-digits, including this week’s 20-6 easy victory on the road at Tampa Bay. Detroit’s lone loss came in overtime against a good Seattle team.

The Lions have seen improving odds each week, thanks to their 5-1 record, but both the Bills and Cowboys have more losses than the Lions and really bad losses at that.

Pay Per Head Software

This week, there is a full schedule of NFL games, with no one of the bye. There are also four games this weekend between teams in the top-25 in college football. Twenty-one of the top-25 is in action overall. Plus, we have the Major League Baseball Championship Series.

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WagerHome BlogWith No Unbeatens Left, NFL Super Bowl Odds Shift

Best Bets for NFL Week 5

by WagerHome Blog on October 5, 2023

Best Bets for NFL Week 5

We are now into the bye weeks, so in Week 5, we have two fewer games to bet, as there are four teams off this week. Although one of those teams is not the Atlanta Falcons, who after playing in London last week, chose to play this week at home instead of taking the customary bye.

It was a good choice. The way they played on Sunday in London, better to get that taste out of your mouth as soon as possible.

Houston Texans (+2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have Bijan Robinson, who began the season as the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner. But Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is the favorite right now after putting up four of the best games to ever start a season, and start a career.

DeMeco Ryans has this team playing well up and down the roster, and along with the stunning start for Stroud, there has been great play from wide receivers Nico Collins and Tank Dell, and rookie defensive end Will Anderson is making an impact on defense.

There are great players on the Falcons offense, but there hasn’t been much good play, and that will continue this week after their long weekend in England. Take the Texans and take the points.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-10)

The last time the Lions were double-digit favorites was 2017, when the Matthew Stafford-led Lions hosted the Cleveland Browns, quarterbacked by DeShone Kizer, coached by Hue Jackson, and finishing what was a 1-31 record over two seasons.

The Panthers aren’t nearly that bad, so a good deal of this week’s point spread is a belief in the Lions, and not just a disbelief in their opponent. However, there is definitely a good deal of the latter. The Panthers have problems that playing against the best team in the NFC North will only expose further.

The Lions covered in that game against the Browns in 2017, and they will cover this week as well.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

Dallas Cowboys Scores, Stats and Highlights - ESPN

It’s the game of the week, and it’s a playoff rematch from last season, when San Francisco and Brock Purdy ended the Cowboys hopes of a deep playoff run. There won’t be any season-ending losses this time around, but it’s easy to envision another big win for the Niners. Less easy to picture Dallas getting the win.

Purdy has been the most efficient quarterback in the league, and Christian McCaffrey is making a serious bid to end the quarterback position’s dominance of the MVP award. This game goes to the Niners, and hopefully we’ll see another addition of this rivalry in the playoffs in January.

Pay Per Head Software

The four division series in baseball begin on Saturday, and we are now deep into conference play in college football. If you are an independent bookmaker looking to stay on top of it all, you need a partnership with a top pay per head software provider.

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WagerHome BlogBest Bets for NFL Week 5

Best Bets for NFL Week 4

by WagerHome Blog on September 28, 2023

In NFL Week 3, survivor pools were left in tatters after the Dallas Cowboys lost to the Arizona Cardinals and the Baltimore Ravens lost to the Indianapolis Colts. And how on earth could the Minnesota Vikings get inside the Chargers six-yard line twice in the final three minutes and not score any points?

Thus are the fates when you wager on the NFL.

Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills

There is no greater example of the week-to-week nature of the NFL than the fact that one week after winning 70-20, the Dolphins are road underdogs.

Sure, Miami has a bad history in Buffalo. They’ve lost seven in a row when visiting the Bills. But they nearly won in the playoffs in January with Skylar Thompson at quarterback, and this year’s Miami team just feels different.

When the best offense is getting points, you take them.

Washington Commanders (+8) at Philadelphia Eagles

You will be forgiven for not taking the Commanders in this one, considering how bad things got last week against the Bills. But this is a divisional game (always close), and don’t forget that last year, an undefeated Eagles team dropped their first game of the year to a lesser version of the Commanders.

Washington has the defense and the running game to keep this NFL game close, and until Jalen Hurts irons out his inconsistencies in the passing game, Philadelphia will get more tight wins than blowouts. Washington knows how to play the Eagles tight, and they will do it again on Sunday.

NFL

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-3)

Even with a bad Deshaun Watson last season, the Browns and Ravens split, with Cleveland winning at home. The year before that, with a bad Baker Mayfield, the teams also split, each winning on their home field.

Now the Browns are getting average play from Watson and otherworldly play from their defense – Cleveland has the best scoring defense in the NFL, giving up just 10 points per game.

The Nick Chubb loss looks to be big, as the Browns mustered almost no running game last week against the Titans. But Baltimore is dealing with multiple injuries at multiple positions, and that will make it too hard for them to overcome the defense or the crowd in Cleveland.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) at New York Jets

This is Patrick Mahomes’ first career start in New York. Hall of Famer Joe Namath is hoping this is Zach Wilson’s final start in New York.

Yes, the Jets have a great defense. But so do the Chiefs, and they have Mahomes and Travis Kelce. Word is that Taylor Swift will also be in attendance, and Kansas City is 1-0 against the spread when she is in the building.

Pay Per Head Software

The Ryder Cup is this weekend. It’s also the final weekend of the baseball regular season, and we have a full slate of NFL and college football.

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WagerHome BlogBest Bets for NFL Week 4