AFC Championship Game

AFC Championship Game Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on January 19, 2021

While Sunday’s NFC Championship Game is a tribute to the last generation of great quarterbacks, this year’s AFC Championship Game is a celebration of the quarterbacks that will lead the NFL for the next decade. It will be the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes hosting the No. 2 seeded Buffalo Bills and Josh Allen.

The Line: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

These teams met in Week 6 in Buffalo, and it was a grind-it-out win for the Chiefs. Rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for a season-high 161 yards that night, and Allen was held to just 122 yards passing.

Allen has been terrific ever since, and Edwards-Helaire hasn’t played in a month, so this game should be much closer than the nine-point Kansas City win in October.

Buffalo Bills

This season, the Bills ended the New England Patriots’ stranglehold on the AFC East. Then the Bills ended their own 25-year playoff victory drought.

Now they are trying to return to the Super Bowl for the first time since they lost to the Cowboys in Super Bowl XXVIII in 1994.

The Bills have the NFL’s receiving champion in Stefon Diggs and a quarterback in Allen who solidified himself as one of the rising stars in the league. The Buffalo defense just held the Ravens to three points in the divisional round, and the Bills have won eight straight games.

If anyone can dethrone the defending Super Bowl champions, it’s the Bills. They will move the ball against Kansas City better than they did in the regular-season meeting, and their run defense has also improved since then.

But if the Bills are to pull the upset, they will need to force Mahomes into committing at least one big mistake.

Kansas City Chiefs

The collective hearts of Chiefs fans dropped into their shoes when Mahomes left the divisional round game against the Browns with what looked like a concussion. Now the injury is a little less clear, with some reports calling it a tweaked nerve in the neck that caused him to lose consciousness.

Whatever the case, the Chiefs organization feels confident that he will play on Sunday.

AFC Championship Game

As for the rest of the offense, there is also optimism that Edwards-Helaire will return from ankle and hip injuries that he suffered against the Saints.

Wide receiver Sammy Watkins also has a chance to return from the calf injury he suffered in Week 16 against the Falcons. He was huge in the playoffs last year for Kansas City and would be a big boost to its quest to repeat as Super Bowl champion.

Pay Per Head Software

The Chiefs are favored by three, and the over/under is 53.5, and both bets are going to take a lot of action on Sunday. If you are an independent bookmaker taking wagers on Championship Sunday, now is the time to check out the advantages of a pay per head software partnership.

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WagerHome BlogAFC Championship Game Betting Preview
divisional round matchups

Betting Totals for NFL Divisional Round Matchups

by WagerHome Blog on January 14, 2021

Don’t get so focused on wins and losses and point spreads that you forget about totals wagers for this weekend’s NFL action. The four divisional round matchups this weekend provide some really great totals betting opportunities.

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (45.5)

The first game of the weekend is in Green Bay, where the weather is expected to be fine. Cold, but only light winds and no snow.

The Rams did hit the over last week against Seattle, but it was only the fifth over for them this season, to go along with 12 unders. With both Los Angeles quarterbacks fighting injury and a Rams defense that should also help contain Aaron Rodgers, at least a little, the under looks good again.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (49.5)

When the Ravens and Bills meet on Saturday night, it will be dark, cold, and with a chance of snow, though with none of the western New York wind that hampered Philip Rivers last week.

This will be a run-heavy game that will have to work to get to 50 points. Baltimore has missed the over in each of its last three games. Buffalo has hit the over in four of its last six.

Buffalo comes into the game with a top offense, but the Ravens will hold them under 30 points, which will keep the total under 50 points.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (55.5)

No problems with the weather in Kansas City, just like with the other games. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s with light winds and no rain.

divisional round matchups

Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes as a duo are 6-0 coming off a bye and averaging 38 points per game in each of those six wins. The Chiefs will put up points on the Browns, who have given up the over in five of their last seven games.

The Browns should also score in the mid-20s or higher, putting the total in this game much closer to 60. Definitely take the over in Kansas City.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (51.5)

The final of the divisional round matchups will be in a dome, so there will be no issues with weather.

These teams have played each other twice already this season, which usually makes for a lower scoring game the third time around because defenses have seen the offensive looks before. But Tom Brady is on fire and has hit the over in three of Tampa Bay’s last four games.

The Bucs only scored a field goal the last time out against the Saints, but they have won five in a row and averaged 36 points while doing it. New Orleans only scored 21 against Chicago but went for 52 and 33 in the two games prior to that.

This feels like a 31-27 final score, hitting the over.

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WagerHome BlogBetting Totals for NFL Divisional Round Matchups
super bowl lv

Updated Betting Odds to Win Super Bowl LV

by WagerHome Blog on January 12, 2021

The NFL’s first-ever Super Wild Card weekend was a raging success as the playoffs make their way to Super Bowl LV. Four of the six lower seeds won on the road, showing once again that with smaller crowds comes a reduced home-field advantage.

We also saw two teams get their first playoff wins since Bill Clinton was in his first term as president.

Welcome back to the division round, Buffalo and Cleveland. And welcome to those two plucky young kids, Tom Brady and Drew Brees, who have now combined to play in 59 playoff games (42 of those by Brady).

So, now that we are down to the final eight teams remaining, where do we stand on betting on the Super Bowl LV champion?

Odds to Win Super Bowl LV

  • Kansas City Chiefs (+220)
  • Green Bay Packers (+400)
  • New Orleans Saints (+550)
  • Buffalo Bills (+600)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+800)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+900)
  • Los Angeles Rams (+2200)
  • Cleveland Browns (+2500)

There were no major upsets on Wild Card weekend. The Steelers and Seahawks lost after they were two of the favorites to make it to Super Bowl LV in February just a couple of months ago.

But much of that shine was gone by the time the playoffs began, and their absence only shifts things slightly.

The Chiefs remain the firm favorites to repeat. The Packers are next in line, trying to get Aaron Rodgers his second Super Bowl ring.

Drew Brees is also looking for a second ring, and a bet on the Saints is paying +550.

If you’re looking for value, a bet on the Browns has it. They won 11 games in the regular season, just beat their nemesis, the Steelers, and have a great running game.

Odds to Win AFC

  • Kansas City Chiefs (-125)
  • Buffalo Bills (+290)
  • Baltimore Ravens (+400)
  • Cleveland Browns (+1200)

It’s unusual to see a team paying negative numbers with still four playoff teams remaining, but that’s where things stand with the Chiefs. One of the reasons for that is Patrick Mahomes and his 4-1 postseason record.

When it comes to the matchup between Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, bookmakers think Allen has the better chance of making it to February.

Odds to Win NFC

super bowl lv

  • Green Bay Packers (+130)
  • New Orleans Saints (+200)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+360)
  • Los Angeles Rams (+900)

Brees and Brady meet this week in New Orleans, and odds say that the Saints will beat the Bucs for a third time this season. But when going to play the Packers in the NFC Championship Game, the outdoors is predicted to be unkind to Brees.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogUpdated Betting Odds to Win Super Bowl LV
NFL Wild Card Weekend

NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets

by WagerHome Blog on January 5, 2021

The NFL Wild Card Weekend was already one of the best on the betting calendar. But with the new super-sized playoff field, we are getting six of the best games of the season instead of just four.

If ever there was a weekend made for a pay per head software partnership, this is it. If you are an independent bookmaker, don’t leave money on the table. Make the first big weekend of 2021 your best haul yet.

Saturday’s Top Game – Rams at Seahawks

There are three games on Saturday, including Colts at Bills (-6.5) and Buccaneers (-8.5) at Washington. But the best matchup of the day is the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Seattle Seahawks (-4.5).

For the first half of the season, Seattle’s offense was one of the best in the NFL, and Russell Wilson was making a serious run at his first MVP award. The problem was the Seahawks defense, which was a sieve.

The script flipped in the final eight games. Wilson was held to less than 200 yards three times, while Jamal Adams turned the Seattle defense into a solid asset. However, Adams is now hurt, and his status for Saturday is in doubt.

We all know about the Rams defense and Aaron Donald. The question mark is quarterback Jared Goff, who missed Week 17 after breaking his thumb.

The plan is to have Goff back by Saturday, which could be key. When the Rams beat the Seahawks back in November, he paced the victory with 302 yards passing. In that game, Wilson threw two interceptions and was sacked six times.

Sunday’s Top Game – Titans at Ravens

There are three more games on Sunday, including the Saints (-10.5) hosting the Bears and the Browns breaking their long playoff drought with a trip to Pittsburgh (-4.5). But the early game on Sunday is the Ravens (-3.5) at Tennessee, and it has classic written all over it.

NFL Wild Card Weekend

The Ravens are the best running team in the NFL and just had 404 yards on the ground against Cincinnati. But on the other sideline, you have the best running back in the league in Derrick Henry, who just became the eighth player in NFL history to top 2,000 yards rushing in a single season.

Baltimore was the top seed a year ago, Lamar Jackson was the MVP, and none of that mattered to Tennessee. It was the Titans winning in the postseason and advancing to the AFC Championship Game. And in the much-anticipated rematch in November, again Tennessee prevailed with a 29-yard Henry touchdown in overtime.

This feels like a final-possession-winning-drive type of game.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogNFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets
nfl week 17

Get to Pay Per Head Bookies for NFL Week 17 Betting

by WagerHome Blog on December 31, 2020

If you are an independent bookmaker, or you place bets with an independent bookie, make sure to get connected to a pay per head service provider before NFL Week 17 begins on Sunday. There are so many great games to bet and so many playoff positions still to be settled, you don’t want to short change your action by failing to act by Sunday.

Important AFC Games in NFL Week 17

There are five games in the AFC that will help decide the rest of the postseason field. They are:

  • Miami at Buffalo (-3)
  • Baltimore (-12) at Cincinnati
  • Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-9.5)
  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-14.5)
  • Tennessee (-7) at Houston

If Miami beats Buffalo, then it clinches a Wild Card berth. But even if the Bills win, the Dolphins can still make the playoffs if the Ravens, Browns, or Colts lose. It does not need to be all three.

A loss by one of those teams sends Miami to the postseason. As for Buffalo, the No. 2 seed in the AFC is still in play.

The Ravens also get into the playoffs if they win, or the Browns or Colts lose. The Steelers are resting their starters, including Ben Roethlisberger, and if the Browns can beat the Pittsburgh backups, then Cleveland ends its 18-year playoff drought.

If the Titans win, they are in, though they can still get in with a loss. By losing last week, Indianapolis is the only team not in control of its own destiny.

If Indianapolis wins and either the Titans, Ravens, Browns, or Dolphins lose, the Colts are in the playoffs.

Important NFC Games in NFL Week 17

  • Dallas (-3) at New York Giants
  • Green Bay (-5) at Chicago
  • Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)
  • Seattle (-5) at San Francisco
  • New Orleans (-6) at Carolina
  • Washington (-1) at Philadelphia

Six of the eight NFC games could impact the playoff bracket, and the NFC East still has three teams that could win it.

nfl week 17

A Dallas win and a Washington loss gives the division to the Cowboys. The Giants win the division if they beat Dallas and Washington loses.

Washington, with Taylor Heinicke starting at quarterback, is in control of its own destiny and only needs to beat the Eagles.

The Packers, Saints, and Seahawks all still have a chance at the top seed and the first-round bye. A Green Bay win and the Packers get it.

The Saints get the bye if they win, Green Bay loses, and Seattle wins. The Seahawks get the bye if they win and both Green Bay and New Orleans lose.

The last game of importance is Arizona at the Rams, as an Arizona win puts it in the playoffs. If the Cardinals lose, the Rams are in, as are the Bears. What happens to the Bears in their game against Green Bay does not matter.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogGet to Pay Per Head Bookies for NFL Week 17 Betting
nfl playoff picture

Updated NFL Playoff Picture After Week 13

by WagerHome Blog on December 8, 2020

It’s December in the NFL, which means that we are officially in the final quarter of the season. And that means it’s time to check in on the current NFL playoff picture and see who’s in, who’s out, and who is still in the hunt.

NFC Division Leaders

  • NFC South – New Orleans (10-2)
  • NFC North – Green Bay (9-3)
  • NFC West – Los Angeles Rams (8-4)
  • NFC East – New York Giants (5-7)

New Orleans has a three-game lead in the NFC South and is clearly in command of the division. They’re also on top of the conference thanks to a nine-game winning streak.

The Saints still have a game against the Kansas City Chiefs, and if they slip, the Packers own the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The NFC East has been a punchline all season, but the Giants now have four straight wins and are in position to host a playoff game.

NFC Wild Card

  • Seattle (fifth seed)
  • Tampa Bay (sixth seed)
  • Minnesota (seventh seed)

Seattle is actually tied with the Rams but is relegated to the Wild Card because of a tiebreaker. But the NFC West is far from settled.

Although winning the division sets up a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while the top Wild Card will play the NFC East champion. So losing the division does come with perks.

Arizona is currently tied with Minnesota for the seventh seed but drops out of the playoffs because of a tiebreaker. However, the Vikings still play the Buccaneers and Saints, giving the Cardinals the easier schedule down the stretch.

Amazingly, as we enter Week 14, not a single NFC team has been eliminated from playoff contention.

AFC Division Leaders

  • AFC North – Pittsburgh (11-1)
  • AFC West – Kansas City (11-1)
  • AFC East – Buffalo (9-3)
  • AFC South – Tennessee (8-4)

The top seed is down to two teams – Pittsburgh and Kansas City. The Chiefs can only catch the Steelers if Pittsburgh loses a game inside the AFC.

Losing to Washington on Monday did not hurt the Steelers too badly. Kansas City has two difficult games remaining, with trips to Miami and New Orleans. The Steelers still have to play the Bills, Browns, and Colts.

nfl playoff picture

AFC Wild Card

  • Cleveland (fifth seed)
  • Miami (sixth seed)
  • Indianapolis (seventh seed)

Before the season ends, we can expect to see a number of moves among the Wild Card teams. Both Miami and Indianapolis are in range of winning their divisions, but be sure to circle Week 17 on your calendar.

The Bills and Dolphins play in the final week of the season, possibly to decide who wins the division and who settles for the Wild Card.

The Chargers, Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets have all been eliminated from playoff contention.

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WagerHome BlogUpdated NFL Playoff Picture After Week 13
thanksgiving

Thanksgiving Day 2020 NFL Picks

by WagerHome Blog on November 24, 2020

In this NFL season that feels like none other and a Thanksgiving Day that is sure to feel different than any that we’ve experienced in recent memory, we do get a bit of normalcy. Thanksgiving Football.

We may be missing mom and her stuffing and fighting with your brother over the last piece of pumpkin pie, but we will still have a full day of NFL football with our traditional stops in Detroit and Dallas.

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Detroit Lions

The Thanksgiving tradition in Detroit goes back to 1934, and there’s an impression that the Lions, because of their experience, play particularly well on their annual short week. Not true.

In their history, the Lions have an overall .443 winning percentage, with a modest improvement to .475 on Thanksgiving Day.

Detroit is 6-14 against the spread in its last 20, while Houston is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10. But the Texans have a quarterback playing out of his mind.

Deshaun Watson is playing some of the best football of his career, while the Lions’ Matthew Stafford has an injured thumb that has really hampered his performance. With a spread at less than a field goal, take the Texans to cover.

Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-3)

Someone has to win the NFC East and get a home playoff game, as much as we wish it wasn’t so.

The winner of Washington and Dallas will move into first place at 4-7, and as crazy as it sounds, that team will be on a two-game win streak. The Cowboys have Andy Dalton back at quarterback and are coming off an impressive win against Minnesota.

Washington is getting good football from quarterback Alex Smith and just beat the Bengals.

thanksgiving

The Cowboys’ Thanksgiving history goes back to 1966, and they have won 60% of their games on Thanksgiving. But in 2020, they are an NFL worst 2-8 against the spread.

Washington is 5-5 ATS in 2020 and will cover the three points here.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)

Hard to believe, but the Ravens aren’t just out of first place in the AFC North, they’re now in third place. And if the playoffs began today, they would be staying home.

Pittsburgh is 10-0, showing no signs of slowing, and is the favorite right now to get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Steelers are also a league-best 8-2 against the spread in 2020, including a cover in Week 8 at Baltimore.

The Ravens are just 4-6 ATS, losers of two straight, and they just put their two best running backs on the COVID-19 list. The Steelers win this one by at least a touchdown and cover another spread.

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WagerHome BlogThanksgiving Day 2020 NFL Picks
nfl bets for week 8

Top Three NFL Bets for Week 8

by WagerHome Blog on October 29, 2020

Week 7 in the NFL saw some amazing finishes, like the Arizona Cardinals coming back to beat Seattle in overtime, handing the Seahawks their first loss. And the Titans missing a late field goal against the unbeaten Steelers to suffer their first loss.

And how about a missed extra-point attempt at the end of the Browns-Bengals game that didn’t change the outcome on the field but most certainly changed things if you bet the three-point spread.

So what surprises does Week 8 have in store for the NFL fan? But more importantly, which games are the best NFL bets for Week 8 we can wager that have the fewest surprises?

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) at Baltimore Ravens

For the second straight week, the Steelers are involved in the game of the week. Last Sunday, they hung on to beat the Titans, and this Sunday, they have their first of two meetings with the Ravens.

With Ben Roethlisberger back, the Steelers (5-1 ATS) are back, and they sit as the NFL’s last remaining unbeaten team. The Ravens (3-3 ATS) are the defending AFC North champs and have taken a step back on offense this season, but only have a lone loss to Kansas City.

This is going to be a great game that comes down to the final possession, and no more than a field goal will separate the two at the end. Take Pittsburgh and the points.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (Over 52.5)

Scoring around the NFL is up this season, and a big part of that is how these two teams play. Both of them love to score, and both of them hate playing defense.

For the Raiders, their point totals allowed this season are 30, 24, 36, 30, 32, and 45, with the average total points per game coming in at 63. Not once have they failed to break 52.

Cleveland has been just as bad (or good if you’re betting the over), giving up 38, 30, 20, 38, 23, 38, and 34. Their average total points per game is 61.

Two really bad defenses and two offenses that love to score. This over is ripe for the picking.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos

These two teams have identical 2-4 records, but when watching the Chargers, you see a team on the rise. When watching the Broncos, especially last week at home, you can see a team still trying to find itself.

nfl bets for week 8

The Chargers are 5-1 ATS, playing with confidence in their young quarterback and coming off a 10-point win. In Denver, Drew Lock continues to struggle, and the Broncos are coming off a 27-point loss.

Los Angeles wins this by a touchdown. Take the Chargers and lay the points.

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WagerHome BlogTop Three NFL Bets for Week 8
super bowl betting odds

Updated Super Bowl Betting Odds

by WagerHome Blog on October 20, 2020

We’re six weeks into the NFL season, which has brought about some changes to the Super Bowl betting odds.

The best game of the week, and perhaps the best game of the season, was Tennessee’s come-from-behind overtime victory over Houston and the dominant display of Derrick Henry on Sunday. With the 42-36 win, the Titans remained unbeaten, and with 264 total yards, Henry has to be in the MVP conversation.

But that 5-0 start does not mean that Tennessee has become one of the top favorites to win this season’s Super Bowl.

After six weeks of NFL play, this is how the Super Bowl betting odds board looks.

Kansas City Chiefs (+400)

A big win on Monday night in Buffalo keeps the defending champions as the favorite to win another Super Bowl. In the quest to get the top seed, the Chiefs now own tiebreakers against the Ravens and Bills, making Kansas City’s quest to repeat that much easier.

Baltimore Ravens (+550)

The Ravens have the defending MVP in Lamar Jackson, an explosive offense, and a great defense. They lost to Kansas City, but that’s the lone blemish on their record.

They remain a solid bet to make it to Tampa Bay and win. Two games still remain with Pittsburgh, which may have something to say about it.

Seattle Seahawks (+750)

Each time it looks like another NFC team is set to emerge as a rival to the Seahawks, they lose. The Buccaneers lost a tough game at Chicago, and then the previously unbeaten Packers got crushed at Tampa Bay. With Russell Wilson playing like the MVP frontrunner, a bet on Seattle is solid.

super bowl odds

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1100)

Pittsburgh is one of just two unbeaten teams in the AFC, but because it shares a division with the Ravens, it is paying a nice +1100 on a Super Bowl-winning bet. Ben Roethlisberger looks great, the offense has many great weapons at wide receiver, and the defense might be the best in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers (+1200)

The Packers were humbled on Sunday and no longer look like the best offense in football. But with Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, and Davante Adams, it’s still pretty darn good, and +1200 on the Pack pays a lot of value.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1200)

No team has ever played in a Super Bowl on its home field, but no team has ever had a 43-year-old six-time Super Bowl champion at quarterback. Tom Brady and his collection of wide receivers are fun to watch, but it’s the Buccaneers defense that might carry them to February.

Pay Per Head Software

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WagerHome BlogUpdated Super Bowl Betting Odds
nfl best bets

NFL Best Bets for Week 6

by WagerHome Blog on October 15, 2020

Week 5 of the NFL season extended its way through Tuesday for just the second time in 70 years. We’re down to five unbeaten teams, while only three teams remain winless.

And we got one quarterback who heroically worked his way back to the field in Washington’s Alex Smith, while another in Dallas’ Dak Prescott is starting his journey on the same road to recovery after a Week 5 injury.

What does Week 6 have in store for NFL fans, and where should the smart bettor put their money? Let’s take a look at our NFL best bets.

Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

These are not your father’s Cleveland Browns, but they are your grandfather’s. For the first time since Bill Belichick was their head coach, the Browns are 4-1, and it’s a solid 4-1. They have legitimate playmakers on both sides of the ball and are right to be thinking playoffs.

They haven’t won in Pittsburgh since the stone age, and they may not win here – the Steelers are one of those remaining unbeatens. But look for Cleveland to keep the final margin to within a field goal.

Cincinnati Bengals (+8) at Indianapolis Colts

Rookie growing pains aside, Joe Burrow is showing himself to be a capable quarterback in Cincinnati. And while the record doesn’t show it, with just one win in five games, the competitiveness of each game does.

The Bengals lost by three, lost by five, tied, and won by eight. (We don’t count the big loss to Baltimore because the Ravens do that to everyone.)

Philip Rivers is good for a turnover, and the Colts have been too up and down to justify such a big spread. Look for the Bengals to keep this within a touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers

If not for a pair of games against the two winless teams from New Jersey, the 49ers would be winless themselves. Along with the other injuries they’ve suffered, suddenly they don’t have a reliable quarterback, with Jimmy Garoppolo getting benched in last week’s embarrassment against the Dolphins.

The Rams have scored 30 points in three of their last four games. They’ll do it again this week and will easily cover against their division rivals.

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (Over 54.5)

A good backup quarterback can save a season, and it just might do that in Dallas. Prescott is done for the year, but Andy Dalton is very good when he has weapons, and he definitely has them in Dallas.

nfl best bets

The problem in Big D is the lack of any meaningful defense, which is giving up an average of 40 points per game in the last four weeks. The Cardinals will score, and score often, and score again.

Anything could happen with who wins this game, but offense is guaranteed. This game will go over 54.5 with plenty of room to spare.

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WagerHome BlogNFL Best Bets for Week 6

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