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MLB Playoffs Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on September 29, 2020

It wasn’t that long ago that we weren’t even sure there would be a 2020 Major League Baseball season. Or after several positive COVID-19 tests, that the season would finish. But here we are about to begin the biggest postseason baseball has ever had as the MLB Playoffs begin on Tuesday.

We have more teams, more games, and more excitement for October baseball than ever before. And with legalized gambling sweeping the nation, this postseason will also see more action than ever before.

We have a full eight series in the Wild Card round just waiting to be wagered.

MLB Wild Card Series Odds

American League

Tampa Bay Rays (-210) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+170)
Oakland Athletics (-135) vs. Chicago White Sox (+110)
Minnesota Twins (-120) vs. Houston Astros (+100)
New York Yankees (-135) vs. Cleveland Indians (+110)

National League

Los Angeles Dodgers (-300) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (+240)
Atlanta Braves (-125) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+105)
Chicago Cubs (-190) vs. Miami Marlins (+160)
San Diego Padres (-175) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (+145)

All Wild Card series are best-of-three.

Series Notes

There are some things to take note of as these brief series get underway.

The Yankees are just the fifth seed, and they lost six of their final eight games. But even with that, they are still favorites from the oddsmakers to make it all the way to the ALCS, and they are the third most likely team to win the World Series.

Game 1 features Cy Young favorite Shane Bieber against Gerrit Cole, and it will go a long way to deciding who takes this series.

Because of the expanded playoffs, some teams are playing that perhaps shouldn’t. The Miami Marlins, with a minus-41 run differential and just the 21st-best ERA in baseball (4.86), are one such team.

The last time the Marlins faced the Cubs in the postseason, the world was introduced to Steve Bartman. With no fans at the games, he will definitely not be on hand to give the Marlins an extra out. But even if he were, it’s hard to see it helping keep the Marlins’ perfect postseason record (two appearances, two World Series titles) intact.

Keep an eye on the Braves and Reds. The seventh-seeded Reds have a .212 batting average – the lowest ever for a playoff team, and the second lowest in the history of baseball. But their top three starting pitchers are as good as anyone, and much better and more consistent than No. 2 seed Atlanta’s.

A couple of long balls for Cincinnati, and a couple of dominant performances on the mound, and this could be the upset of the Wild Card round.

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Books Making Up Rules for Baseball

by WagerHome Blog on August 6, 2020

If you are a regular baseball bettor, you’ve been relying on the option to play listed pitchers for years. It’s a simple thing, and it’s been standard issue for bookmakers since baseball betting began.

If you choose to play “listed” instead of “action,” and the listed pitcher is replaced before the game begins, your bet is canceled.

Baseball has used this year’s shortened season as an opportunity to change some of its rules, and several bookmakers and pay per head sites have done the same. Gone is the action vs. listed option.

Now, regardless of a starting pitcher change prior to the game, the bet you place is the bet you’re stuck with.

Placing Bets: Action vs. Listed

There is nothing worse in betting than having $50 on the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw, to suddenly have him scratched and replaced by Dustin May, which happened in Los Angeles’ season opener this year. Nothing against May, but he’s no Kershaw, and the bet you placed is no longer the bet you’re playing. This is why baseball bets come with a choice.

When placing the bet, if you choose “listed,” when Kershaw or another starter gets the boot, your bet is canceled. If instead, you choose “action,” that means you are locked into going ahead with the bet, but at a new moneyline should there be a starting pitching change.

Most experienced baseball bettors don’t like to take “action” because it removes their control. Their knowledge and research are rendered moot. Whereas taking” listed” allows the bettor to look at the new pitcher and the new moneyline and decide if they still want to play it.

Bookmakers that are removing this option from their baseball listings are removing your choice as an experienced baseball bettor.

Why Bookmakers are Making This Change

Under the cover COVID-19 excuses, bookies who have pulled the plug on “listed pitcher” bets say they’re making the change for two reasons.

First, baseball has changed. More relief pitchers are starting the game, giving way to a traditional starter beyond the first inning. The listed starting pitcher is no longer as important.

That is true in the case of a team like the Brewers. But if you’re playing the Nationals and Max Scherzer, he is the traditional starting workhorse that you base your bet around.

The other reason bookies give is that this is how other sports operate. Your Lakers bet doesn’t change because LeBron James sits. Your Ravens bet doesn’t change if Lamar Jackson is a game-time scratch. This just makes baseball equal to those sports.

Nonsense. There is no player in any sport that has the influence on an outcome like a starting pitcher. Being able to bet on the listed starting pitcher is paramount to being a successful baseball bettor.

WagerHome.com Stays Old School

If you are running your bookmaking service with WagerHome.com as your pay per head software provider, your baseball bets are exactly the same as before. And they will always stay that way because WagerHome.com recognizes that old school baseball betting rules are better for you, their client.

Your customers expect a certain service, and by partnering with WagerHome.com, they will always get it.

MLB Opening Day Betting Previews

by WagerHome Blog on July 22, 2020

It is finally here. Nine months since the end of the 2019 World Series, Major League Baseball’s Opening Day 2020 is happening this week. Yes, it’s okay to be a little teary-eyed.

It will be a season unlike any other. We have 60 games and a set of rules to accommodate the risks of the coronavirus and the limited resources each team has with no minor league season.

If anyone tells you they know what to expect, they’re lying. No one can really know in such a small sampling of a regular season. It’s like picking a game-winner after three innings.

The unknowns, however, will also make this one of the most exciting betting seasons we’ve ever had. And on Opening Day, we get treated to two nationally televised matchups packed with wagering intrigue.

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals

NY Yankees -1.5 (+125)
Washington +1.5 (-148)

The Nationals are, of course, the defending World Series champions, but if the 2019 season had only been 60 games, they wouldn’t have made the postseason. Meanwhile, the Yankees are hands down considered the best team in the league and will be starting their new acquisition, Gerrit Cole. Washington will counter with three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer.

Scherzer makes his third straight Opening Day start for the Nationals. Cole is the new $300 million man and was an obvious choice to start on Opening Day. The last time he had that honor was 2017 with the Pirates.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

San Francisco +1.5 (+114)
L.A. Dodgers -1.5 (-132)

If the National League has its version of the Yankees, it’s the Dodgers. Offseason acquisition David Price has opted out of the season, which diminishes their dominance just a bit, although, in the National League West, they are clearly the class of the bunch.

The Dodgers are -715 to win the division for the eighth straight season. The Giants, on the other hand, pay +8000 on a bet to win the NL West. In short, the Giants are not going to win the NL West this season.

Starting for the Giants will be Johnny Cueto, who made a successful return to the mound last September after Tommy John surgery. In four Opening Day starts, Cueto is 1-1 with an ERA of 0.64.

Clayton Kershaw makes his ninth career Opening Day start for the Dodgers. He is 5-1 with a 1.05 ERA in the previous eight starts.

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MLB, NBA, NHL All Set to Return in July

by WagerHome Blog on June 30, 2020

Normally, the sports calendar in July is so slow that ESPN puts out its annual award show, The Espys, just to help fill the void until things return. With only baseball to fill our weeks, and NFL training camps beginning at the end of the month, sports fans and sports bettors know that July is the best time to take family vacations.

Not this year.

Get ready for the greatest month of July the sports world has ever seen.

The Return of Baseball

Finally, after multiple weeks of negotiating, fighting through the media, telling us the season was 100% going to happen, then not happen, and then happen again, MLB and its players union have an agreement to begin the season on July 23.

It will be an all-out 60-game sprint to the playoffs and a season unlike anything we’ve ever seen before, with all teams only playing games against their division or the corresponding regional division in the other league (NL East vs. AL East, and so on).

NBA Seeding Games and Playoffs

One of the reasons the NCAA Tournament is so great is that there is no waiting for basketball to start. Games tip off early, and never seem to stop. Now imagine an NBA world like that. How amazing would it be?

Imagine no more, because when the NBA resumes on July 30, they will play 88 seeding games to finish out the season in just two weeks time. Twenty-two teams, three courts, four television networks (TNT, ESPN, ABC, and NBATV), and games starting as early as 12:30 pm ET through as late as 9 pm ET.

You can’t really go anywhere at the moment, so grab your remote, your favorite betting app, and prepare for NBA basketball overload.

NHL Playoffs

A Stanley Cup Playoffs like we’ve never seen before will also be coming to our televisions in late July. Twelve teams from each conference are in, with the top four teams in each playing a round-robin tournament for seeding, while everyone else plays in a best-of-five series for the right to get into the final playoff bracket.

The NHL still hasn’t decided which cities will serve as hubs for these games, or when exactly players will report. A new CBA is close to finalization, which, along with creating labor peace for the next six years, will create the return-to-play protocols, including a date certain for the resumption of training camps and the playoffs that follow.

Pay Per Head

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Restart Updates For NBA, NHL; MLB Negotiations

by WagerHome Blog on June 11, 2020

You can now get a haircut, go to a restaurant, and very soon you will be able to watch major American team sports on television. We’ve almost made it. Congratulate yourself, and then get ready for the wildest summer of sports you’ve ever seen as leagues continue to put together their plans to restart.

NBA Going to Orlando

The NBA’s return won’t happen until July 31, but when it does, watch out. If you thought two months of playoffs with 16 teams was intense, the restarted NBA will feature 22 teams, eight seeding games, a play-in tournament, and then a full playoff schedule of 16 teams, with every game taking place at ESPN’s Wide World of Sports in Orlando.

We’ll get the draft lottery at the end of August and October will feature the end of the NBA Finals, the Draft, and the start of free agency. Then, a new season is set to begin Dec. 1.

All of this has been approved by both the league and players union, but, as with everything in the sports restart world of COVID-19, it’s all subject to change.

NHL With 24-Team Playoffs

One-upping the NBA is the NHL’s agreed-upon restart format. The top four seeds in each conference will play a round-robin to determine final seeding, while the other 16 teams (seeds five through 12 in each conference) will play best-of-five series to determine who moves on to face those top seeds.

An exciting change and one many hockey fans have been pushing for long before this season, is that each playoff round will be reseeded. Instead of a hard bracket, which would render the round-robin of the top seeds moot, the top seed will always face the lowest remaining seed.

Teams have begun to return to their practice facilities, and the league hopes to resume play by late July/early August in two yet-to-be-selected hub cities – one for all Eastern Conference games and the other for all Western Conference games.

MLB Remains A Mystery

For weeks we have heard: “Don’t worry, there is too much money at stake for baseball to cancel its full season.”

Maybe that’s the problem. There is simply too much money at stake, both for 2020 and beyond, for MLB and its players union – two long-time adversaries – to come together.

Sliding scales, prorated pay, and different season lengths have all been discussed. Even the dreaded label “salary cap” has been said.

They’ve blown past their self-imposed June 1 deadline to get a deal done, but negotiations do continue. So does that mean there is still hope for a baseball season? Las Vegas oddsmakers say yes.

There is still a 75% chance a season will be played. But with each passing day, that becomes a longer bet.

Pay Per Head Software

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Spring Training Version: Sleepers and Favorites for 2020 MVP

by WagerHome Blog on March 7, 2020

The 2020 Major League Baseball season is just around the corner, and it’s never too early to speculate on the season’s MVP winners. Let’s take a look at some of the possibilities as we approach the season.

American League

Sleepers

Looking for some sleeper MVP picks? Let’s take a look at a pair of youngsters that could win this award in 2020.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +3500: The son of a former MVP, Vlad Jr. is looking to make a name for himself. He burst onto the scene a season ago and should emerge as a top player in the AL in 2020.

Eloy Jimenez +3500: The Chicago White Sox slugger will need to cut down on his strikeouts, but he can really hit. Jimenez could lead the American League in home runs this season.

Favorites

There is one clear favorite, and then several other talented players that are grouped together. Here are the two players with the best odds to win the 2020 MVP.

Mike Trout -110: Surprise, surprise. Mike Trout is the overwhelming favorite to win the AL MVP again. Trout should have a better supporting cast around him, and he remains the most talented player in the game.

Aaron Judge +900: Judge will start the season on the Injured List, but should return early in the season. The Yankees slugger continues to be a huge offensive threat while playing underrated defense in the outfield.

National League

Sleepers

We head to the National League Central Division to find our 2020 MVP sleeper picks.

Kris Bryant +2800: The 2016 National League MVP has struggled over the last few seasons for the Chicago Cubs, and there were plenty of rumors swirling about a trade in the offseason. Bryant is expected to bat leadoff for the Cubs this season, and it feels like a monster bounce-back season is coming for the slugger.

Paul Goldschmidt +3200: The St. Louis Cardinals’ first baseman continues to be one of the most underrated players in the National League, but that is going to change this season. The Cardinals have a great shot of winning the Central Division, and Goldschmidt should get plenty of attention for this award.

Favorites

A pair of former MVP winners lead the way in the National League, although one player is new to the NL.

Mookie Betts +350: The former American League MVP with the Boston Red Sox is now a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Mookie Betts will have the benefit of batting in one of the deepest and most talented lineups in baseball, and he should have a monster season. He is also one of the best defensive players in the league. Betts is a solid pick.

Christian Yelich +700: Yelich and the Brewers just agreed to a massive contract extension, and now it will be up to him to earn that money. Yelich was the 2018 MVP in the National League and nearly won the award again a season ago.

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Three Teams Worth A World Series Futures Bet

by WagerHome Blog on February 22, 2020

Spring training games are upon us, and baseball is getting itself geared up for one of the more interesting seasons in recent memory. The offseason is usually all about the news of player movement, while this year, it feels like we’ve done nothing but talk about trash cans, buzzers, and tainted World Series titles.

Time to get back to the business at hand, and which teams are most deserving of your World Series futures bet.

Houston Astros (8/1)

Yes, I just said let’s get back to the business at hand, and now I’m talking about the Astros. But the reality is that even without trash cans, they remain a very good team, and at 8/1, they provide better wagering value than the two favorites, the Yankees (3/1) and Dodgers (7/2).

The Astros have a great lineup, a great rotation, and a massive chip on their shoulder. As much as other teams are going to be motivated when they face the Astros, it’s clear that the Astros have equal motivation to prove that they are deserving of their World Series.

It may feel distasteful to put money on Houston, but it’s also a smart play.

New York Mets (18/1)

You can, of course, place your money on that other team for New York, but at only 3/1, and considering it’s been 11 years since they last won the World Series, I think the Mets offer much greater value.

They, too, have one of the best rotations in all of baseball, with a pair of Cy Young winners highlighting the starting five. And whichever team can emerge from the NL East is going to be tough and battle-tested, having survived the Nationals, Braves, and Phillies.

I think the Mets can be that team, and at 18/1, they make for an enticing World Series future play.

Minnesota Twins (18/1)

The Twins are like the anti-Mets, in that they have the luxury of playing in one of the worst divisions in all of baseball. The Tigers have a win total line of 56.5, and the Royals are at 64.5. That means a lot of losses for those teams and a lot of wins for the Twins.

And even though the prospects for the Indians and White Sox are better than the bottom two, neither team is expected to be in the postseason.

We know about the home run prowess of the Twins – they hit an MLB-record 307 last season – but what may make the difference this season is the acquisition of starting pitcher Kenta Maeda. This team is simply too good to be listed at 18/1, making this a very appealing play.

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Will Astros Be Marked Men Every Game During 2020 MLB Season?

by WagerHome Blog on February 4, 2020

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Astros Scandal Fallout

The top teams in the league are always targeted by their opponents. It serves as extra incentive to get the win because you want to beat the best.

But also since the team is a preseason favorite, you also know that if you want to win the division, you need to get those head-to-head wins.

This year with the Houston Astros, we’re going to see something similar, but on an entirely different level. They are still a great team. But they will spend this season under the cloud of the cheating scandal that was uncovered in recent weeks.

Not only will teams be extra vigilant when they face the Astros, but look for opposing fans to be into games on a different level. For many of the Houston road trips, there will be almost a playoff atmosphere in the stands.

Most notable is the disgust about an Aug. 4, 2017 game involving the Astros and the Toronto Blue Jays. The Astros were in first place and leading their division by 15 games. The Blue Jays were a last-place team.

But reports show that there were a season-high 54 pitches that had trash can bangs – the Astros’ signal to the batter about what pitch was coming – during that game with the Blue Jays.

The best team in the league playing one of the worst teams in the league, and they actually ramped up the amount of cheating on their way to a 16-7 win. That doesn’t sit well.

Astros Management and Suspensions

The hiring of Dusty Baker to manage the team in the wake of A.J. Hinch’s suspension and firing does give the Astros a seasoned manager with a solid reputation to help rebuild their credibility.

But with so many of the players implicated in the scandal still on the team – most specifically Jose Altuve and the allegations of buzzer usage – Baker alone will not get the Astros past this.

There are not likely to be any more suspensions, so from a player standpoint, those who are on the team are likely to remain on the team for the foreseeable future. But that may only serve to aggravate the many Astros haters that have emerged in the last several weeks.

Without a complete house-cleaning, this team will be public enemy No. 1 for all opposing baseball fans and players.

Take the Dogs Out This MLB Postseason

by Wager Home on October 6, 2019

Betting on baseball during the regular season requires some serious discipline. There are nearly 15 games each day, which can be both a blessing and a curse for bettors. One of the big positives of the 162-game regular season is that bettors can identify trends that translate into betting opportunities. This postseason, like many past postseasons, those trends indicate backing underdogs in the MLB playoffs.

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A Little History

Going back to 2005, the underdog won 42.5 percent (15,458-of-20,950) of all MLB regular season games. That number jumps to 44.8 percent, or 210-of-259, in the postseason. Even more interesting is the home underdog. In 119 games since 2005, the home underdog is 61-58. Based upon these numbers alone, bettors can see why backing underdogs can lead to bigger payouts.

The Bounce-Back Theory

The MLB playoffs attract many recreational bettors that incorrectly assume that most playoff series are ones that go “back and forth.” There is a misconception that teams that lose a game will often “bounce back” and simply win the next game. This idea leads to some faulty betting strategies (if you can even call it a strategy).

A serious MLB bettor would be better off backing a team coming off a win than coming off a loss. The numbers prove it. Again going back to 2005, teams that lost the previous game are 172-183 (48.5 percent) in their next game. Teams that won their previous game went on to win 51.1 percent – a record of 179-171 – of the time.

Even more interesting is the underdog coming off a win. While it might be conventional thinking to believe the dog got lucky and is bound to lose, that has not been the case. Underdogs coming off a win have proved a good value going 86-96 (47.3 percent).

Betting Totals

Another strategy for the serious MLB playoff bettor is to back postseason underdogs with high totals. The magic number for totals bettors seems to be 8. With a total of 8 or higher in the postseason, the Under is 110-86. The Over is 132-114 when the total is 7.5 or lower.

It’s also worth noting that underdogs in games where the total is 8.5 or higher are 83-89 since 2003. When the total is 8 or less, dogs are 127-170 during the same time frame. In Game 1 of the Cardinals-Braves series, Atlanta was a home underdog and the Total was set at 8.5. The underdog Braves and the Under were winners as a result of the 3-0 Atlanta victory.

Do not sleep on the Braves when considering your MLB postseason bets

Making It Through the Rest of the Postseason

Bettors looking for the most bang for their buck this MLB postseason should do their best to focus on underdogs. More often than not, MLB playoff teams are evenly matched which tends to favor upsets. Remember, more casual bettors will want to get in on the action at this time of year. That works in the underdogs favor as well.

Recreational bettors tend to put their money on favorites. Doing so can lead to artificially inflated lines, which ends up resulting in higher payouts for the more unpopular underdog. This MLB postseason, takes the dogs out to the park and pad that bankroll.

Weekly Bookie Betting Report- Oct. 3

by Wager Home on October 3, 2019

October is one of the biggest months of the year for private bookies. All four major US professional leagues are in action along with college football. While the revenue and subsequent profit this month can generate is a major financial boon, managing all the daily and weekly action coming in becomes a much tougher task, but we’re here to give some assistance with our Weekly Bookie Betting Report for Oct. 3.

It is a must win week for some NFL teams

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Season-to-Date Football Betting Results

The NFL wrapped up the first quarter of its regular season schedule and the early betting trends still favor the underdogs against the spread with a winning rate of 61.3 percent. The best bet through the first four weeks has been road dogs winning 70 percent of the time. Road teams in general have been a profitable play covering 64.5 percent of their games. Road teams have also won 56.5 percent of their games straight-up.

Underdogs have won close to 42 percent of the time straight-up to add some action to the NFL moneyline bet. The best bet on the total line has been the UNDER with a winning rate of 55.6 percent.

The betting results for the first five weeks of the college football season have been much more stable. While the favorites have won 84.7 percent of their games SU, their winning rate ATS is just 50.8 percent. All the betting trends ATS are just about even with road favorites having the best edge at 53.2 percent. The UNDER has a winning rate of 52.3 percent when it comes to betting the college football total line.

One of the biggest handicapping contests of the NFL season is the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. Last week, the consensus picks road the Kansas City Chiefs with 1463 picks, but they could not cover the seven points in a tight 34-30 road win against Detroit. New England was second on the list with 930 picks but the Patriots failed to cover in a tight 16-10 road win against Buffalo as seven-point favorites.

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Early NFL Week 5 Consensus Picks

The early betting consensus for Week 5 in the NFL is back on the 4-0 Patriots at 69 percent as heavy 15.5-point road favorites against the 0-4 Washington Redskins. The 0-4 Arizona Cardinals are a solid bet at 65 percent as three-point road underdogs against the 0-4 Cincinnati Bengals.

Most of the games this week are tight either way with no clear favorite. There are also several “too close to call” scenarios betting the NFL total line.

This Weekend’s Big Betting Games

Can the Rays upset the best team in baseball?

All four MLB best-of-five league division series will get underway starting on Thursday. In the American League, the New York Yankees are -220 favorites against the Minnesota Twins. In the other AL series, the Tampa Bay Rays will take on the heavily favored Houston Astros.

The Atlanta Braves are -140 favorites against the St. Louis Cardinals in one NLDS and the Los Angeles Dodgers are -220 favorites against the Washington Nationals in the other NL series.

One of the heaviest bet games in the NFL this Sunday should be the 3-1 Green Bay Packers on the road against the 3-1 Dallas Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. on FOX. Both teams are coming off their first loss of the season with the Cowboys set as 3.5 favorites. The total for this key NFC clash has been set at 47 points.

MLB Wild Card Series Odds

Series Notes

Pay Per Head Bookmaking Software

Placing Bets: Action vs. Listed

Why Bookmakers are Making This Change

WagerHome.com Stays Old School

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pay Per Head Software

The Return of Baseball

NBA Seeding Games and Playoffs

NHL Playoffs

Pay Per Head

NBA Going to Orlando

NHL With 24-Team Playoffs

MLB Remains A Mystery

Pay Per Head Software

American League

National League

Favorites

Houston Astros (8/1)

New York Mets (18/1)

Minnesota Twins (18/1)

Pay Per Head Software

Astros Scandal Fallout

Astros Management and Suspensions

Season-to-Date Football Betting Results

Early NFL Week 5 Consensus Picks

This Weekend’s Big Betting Games

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