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Goodyear 400 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 6, 2021

A week after a stop in Kansas, and a win for Kyle Busch and his No. 18 Toyota, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Darlington for the Goodyear 400. It’s also throwback weekend at the track, with drivers and teams adopting new paint schemes to honor the legendary drivers of the past.

Odds to Win Goodyear 400

Kyle Larson (+550)

Denny Hamlin (+600)

Kevin Harvick (+700)

Kyle Busch (+800)

Brad Keselowski (+800)

Martin Truex, Jr. (+800)

Chase Elliott (+1100)

Joey Logano (+1100)

William Byron (+1500)

Ryan Blaney (+1600)

Kyle Larson is an interesting favorite for this race. In four of his last five races he’s failed to crack the top-15. He finished 19th in Kansas last weekend (although he did lead 132 laps) and hasn’t cracked the top-10 in almost a month. But Darlington seems to agree with him. In his last two races here Larson finished 2nd and 3rd, and also had a 3rd place finish in 2016.

Denny Hamlin as the second betting favorite also provides a mixed bag of results. He is the current Cup Series points leader and has eight top-5 finishes this season. But in Kansas last week he finished 12th, and was 32nd the week earlier at Talladega. So Hamlin has been great this year, but he’s been quite bad these last two weeks.

Kevin Harvick, however, has nothing but positives when looking at him as a potential bet. He’s the defending champion at this race and in his last five races at Darlington he finished 4th, 4th, 1st, 3rd, and 1st. Harvick was also the runner-up last week in Kansas, and finished in 4th place the week before that at Talladega.

Underdogs to Consider

Austin Dillon is paying +5000 and is definitely worth considering. He’s been in the top-10 in each of the last three races, and don’t forget that he finished 3rd at the Daytona 500. He also finished as the runner-up at Darlington last September and was 4th place finisher here in 2017.

Erik Jones is paying +8000, and on some boards as much as +10000, and in six races at Darlington he has never finished worse than 8th. He was also a winner here in 2019. His season in 2021 has been largely forgettable, which is why he is paying so well. But because of his history on this track Jones is worth a look.

Chris Buescher came in 8th in Kansas last week but was running much better than his eventual finish. He also had one of the best cars at Homestead and led for 57 laps. At +10000 he’s a bet worth considering.

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Favorites, Darkhorses, and Underdogs for the Wells Fargo Championship

by WagerHome Blog on May 4, 2021

After a cancellation a year ago, the Wells Fargo Championship is back. And while last weekend’s field at the Valspar Championship was a little light on big names, this week at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, 10 of the top 15 golfers in the world will be teeing it up for the $8.1 million purse.

With just two tuneups left before the PGA Championship in South Carolina, the golfing world has descended upon North Carolina to get itself ready.

Odds to Win Wells Fargo Championship

Justin Thomas (+800)

Jon Rahm (+900)

Bryson DeChambeau (+1400)

Xander Schauffele (+1600)

Viktor Hovland (+1800)

Rory McIlroy (+1800)

Webb Simpson (+1800)

Tony Finau (+2500)

Patrick Cantlay (+2800)

Patrick Reed (+2800)

Will Zalatoris (+2800)

Justin Thomas was the betting favorite last week and he ended up tied for 13th. He’s the favorite once again, and now in an even better field, and his +800 number doesn’t justify the risk of placing a bet.

Rory McIlroy is the course record holder here with his -21 back in 2015. At +1800 he’s among the favorites, but still provides solid betting value. This is also where he won his first ever PGA Tour event back in 2010, and despite his recent struggles, he is a different golfer on this course.

It’s hard not to be a fan of Will Zalatoris after his incredible run at Augusta, and no doubt he is playing well. But if you are looking to bet on Zalatoris at +2800, you really should put that money toward Patrick Reed or Patrick Cantlay, also at +2800. Reed is the seventh ranked golfer in the world and Cantlay is ranked 11th, and both are much better bets to win in a solid field like this.

Wells Fargo – Best Value Underdogs

If you’re looking to bet someone outside the top 10, think about Max Homa and his +3400 payout. He won at this tournament the last time it was played (2019) and was incredible on the greens. He’s also playing well currently, with six top-25 finishes in his last eight tournaments, a win at the Genesis Invitational, and sixth place finish last week at Valspar.

Also, give Keegan Bradley a look. He’s coming off a second place finish at Valspar and two tournaments ago at the Zurich Classic he tied for fourth. And better yet, he’s completely under the radar this week and paying +5000.

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Kentucky Derby 2021: Favorites, Darkhorses, and Underdogs

by WagerHome Blog on April 29, 2021

Nothing signals that summer is right around the corner like the May tradition of the Kentucky Derby. So get your mint juleps made, put on your fancy hat, and get ready for the best horse race of the year.

Kentucky Derby Positions and Odds

Known Agenda (6-1)
Like the King (50-1)
Brooklyn Strong (50-1)
Keepmeinmind (50-1)
Sainthood (50-1)
O Besos (20-1)
Mandaloun (15-1)
Medina Spirit (15-1)
Hot Rod Charlie (8-1)
Midnight Bourbon (20-1)
Dynamic One (20-1)
Helium (50-1)
Hidden Stash (50-1)
Essential Quality (2-1)
Rock Your World (5-1)
King Fury (20-1)
Highly Motivated (10-1)
Super Stock (30-1)
Soup and Sandwich (30-1)
Bourbonic (30-1)

Running in the middle from the 14th position is the odds on favorite, Essential Quality. According to the oddsmakers, this is his race to lose. He’s had success at Churchill Downs, with a win at the Blue Grass Stakes and Breeders’ Futurity, and it’s worth noting that the betting favorite has finished either first or second in eight of the last ten Triple Crown races.

Running next to Essential Quality is a turf horse turned dirt, Rock Your World. Suppose you are looking for a favorite that isn’t THE favorite, then you can’t do much better. He ran at the Santa Anita Derby on April 3 and absolutely dominated the field, running from the front the majority of the race and cruising to a pull-away win.

Darkhorse Candidates

It is Kentucky, and the mint julep is made with bourbon, so keep an eye on Midnight Bourbon, running at 20-1. He’s looked great in workouts and is being ridden by Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith.

Another of the Kentucky whiskey-named horses is Bourbonic, running at 30-1. Posted on the outside, he will be free of traffic, and no doubt trainer Todd Pletcher, a two-time winner at the Derby, will have him ready to run. He also just won the Wood Memorial to begin the month of April at 72-1, so don’t expect Saturday’s odds to bother jockey Kendrick Carmouche.

Underdogs

You never go in expecting a win from the longest of shots, but there are a few that could sneak onto the board.

Paying 50-1, Helium was a victor at the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby back in March. He hasn’t been tested much, but he’s trained by Mark Casse, who always has his horses properly conditioned.

Another Todd Pletcher trained horse is Sainthood, on the board at 50-1. In his most recent race, he finished in second place at the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks but was closing at the finish and showed real promise for the future.

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NFL Draft 2021: What to Expect in the First Round

by WagerHome Blog on April 27, 2021

A strange, shortened, and, in some cases, absent college football season makes this year’s NFL Draft one of the most unpredictable in recent memory. There was no combine, and only scattered player pro days and limited face-to-face interviews. Will teams be willing to take risks or go with the tried and true?

Hard to say exactly, but this is our best guess as to the headlines that will be made during Thursday night’s first round.

It’s a Quarterback’s League

If you don’t have a franchise quarterback, you don’t have a shot at the Super Bowl. That is the reality of the NFL, and that is why it is a certainty that the top three picks will be rookie signal-callers.

Trevor Lawrence goes No. 1 to the Jaguars, Zach Wilson goes to the Jets at No. 2, but who do the 49ers take at No. 3? It will be a quarterback, and if it’s Mac Jones, don’t be surprised if there are a number of teams on the phone with the Falcons trying to move up to No. 4 for Trey Lance or Justin Fields.

The Broncos are sitting at No. 9, and if the quarterback they covet is still on the board at No. 4, the Falcons could get a haul of picks from Denver. The Bears, or even the Patriots, might also have an eye on moving up for one of the top quarterbacks.

Teams Moving Up

The Ravens have their quarterback, but they also have a lot of picks. Ten picks to be exact, including two first-rounders, two thirds, and two fourths. Look for Baltimore to package its picks and move up to grab one of the best wide receivers on the board.

The Chargers have nine total picks, including No. 13 in the first round. If there is an opportunity to grab a top offensive tackle or tight end Kyle Pitts, don’t be surprised if Los Angeles makes a move. It wants to surround Justin Herbert with as much offensive talent as possible.

The Miami Dolphins

With confidence in second-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and holding first-round picks at Nos. 6 and 18, the Dolphins get a section all to themselves. Look for them to use the sixth pick on LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, then make a big trade with someone for the No. 18 pick.

They have lots of draft capital and could move up, down, or into more picks for the future. Whatever Miami ultimately decides to do, when the first-round grades are given out, look for it to score quite high.

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What is Pay Per Head?

by WagerHome Blog on April 23, 2021

If you are an independent bookmaker, then you need to know about the many perks that pay per head software provides. PPH providers, in essence, an outsourcing service. Your bookmaking business remains yours. You are still the boss. But you are no longer responsible for the many administrative tasks that can take time away from expanding your business.

Just the financial transactions of bookmaking can be a full-time job. Add in keeping track of odds, sports, clients, working as your own customer service agent, and everything else, and it’s like having two full-time jobs.

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Why Your Clients Will Love It

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No longer will a bet not be placed because they couldn’t get a hold of you. Now your clients will have access to dynamic lines that reflect the latest news and betting trends, making sure they are betting with the most up-to-date odds. And with WagerHome.com as your provider, your clients will access to WagerHome’s huge menu of available sports and bets, as well as EZ live betting.

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Why You as a Bookmaker Will Love It

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Kentucky Derby Contenders and Long Shots

by WagerHome Blog on April 20, 2021

Back in its familiar place on the calendar on the first Saturday in May, we are getting ready for the 147th running of the Kentucky Derby.

It is now less than two weeks away, which means it’s time for everyone to start thinking about which horses are most likely to win the blanket of roses and which long shots are most able to put money in your pocket.

Kentucky Derby Projected Field

Essential Quality (5-2)
Hot Rod Charlie (6-1)
Medina Spirit (8-1)
Rock Your World (8-1)
Known Agenda (12-1)
Highly Motivated (15-1)
Mandaloun (15-1)
Midnight Bourbon (15-1)
Super Stock (20-1)
Bourbonic (30-1)
Caddo River (30-1)
Dynamic One (30-1)
Soup and Sandwich (30-1)
O Besos (30-1)
Dream Shake (30-1)
Helium (50-1)
Hidden Stash (50-1)
Like the King (50-1)
Sainthood (50-1)
Get Her Number (50-1)

Essential Quality has all of the essential qualities you look for in a Derby favorite. He was the winner in his Churchill Downs debut and heads into this race undefeated. The one issue with Essential Quality is his trainer, Brad Cox, who has never had a Derby starter, and thus he remains an unknown at this level.

A good number two in the field is Hot Rod Charlie, who won at the Louisiana Derby. Making that win most relevant is the distance, at 1 3/16 mile. That’s a longer win than anyone else in the field, and it sets him up for the 1 1/4 mile at Churchill Downs.

Another horse to keep an eye on is Highly Motivated. At 15-1, he is in the long shot territory, but he’s running much better than that. On April 3 at the Blue Grass Stakes, he ran stride-for-stride with Essential Quality before getting beaten at the wire. He also has a victory at the Nyquist Stakes and a third-place at the Gotham Stakes.

Best Long Shot Bets

At 30-1, Midnight Bourbon is an iffy bet to win the race. But he raced to second place behind Hot Rod Charlie at the Louisiana Derby and had a win in January in the Lecomte. Outside of that, he has been consistently competitive and could sneak into the top three at the Derby.

For a long-shot win contender, take a closer look at Dynamic One. Paying 30-1, he won at Aqueduct and nearly won at the Wood Memorial after a strong closing move. In a field with a group of horses that aren’t used to running 1 1/4 miles, look for another strong close from Dynamic One that just might be enough for trainer Todd Pletcher’s third Derby win.

Pay Per Head Software

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2021 Mock NFL Draft

by WagerHome Blog on April 7, 2021

The NFL Draft is just three weeks away, and the wheeling and dealing has already reached a fever pitch. The San Francisco 49ers made big moves to get a quarterback, and the New York Jets seem to have clarified their draft priorities with a trade of their own.

It is the season of the mock draft, and here is ours.

Top 10 NFL Draft Picks

1. Jacksonville Jaguars – Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (QB)

Don’t listen to the noise. Trevor Lawrence has been the top pick in this draft for more than two years now.

2. New York Jets – Zach Wilson, BYU (QB)

Sam Darnold has been dealt to the Carolina Panthers, and the Jets replace him with the signal-caller from BYU, Zach Wilson.

3. San Francisco 49ers – Mac Jones, Alabama (QB)

This is where things get interesting. Maybe the Mac Jones chatter is a smoke screen, though no one can jump ahead of the 49ers and take either Justin Fields or Trey Lance, so there is no reason for a head-fake here. So it’s Jones, but with a possible surprise.

4. Atlanta Falcons – Kyle Pitts, Florida (TE)

The Falcons have revealed that they would like to trade this pick, so stay tuned. It could become a quarterback to a yet-to-be-named team. But if the Falcons keep the pick, they will add the most impressive offensive weapon in the draft, Florida tight end Kyle Pitts.

5. Cincinnati Bengals – Penei Sewell, Oregon (OT)

Last year, the Bengals got their franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. And since he ended the season injured, this year they will get the best player in this draft charged with keeping quarterbacks healthy, Oregon tackle Penei Sewell.

6. Miami Dolphins – Ja’Marr Chase, LSU (WR)

By trading out of the top three, the Dolphins signaled that they are ready to roll with Tua Tagovailoa in 2021. He gets the best wide receiver in the draft, Ja’Marr Chase.

7. Detroit Lions – Justin Fields, Ohio State (QB)

The Lions did just trade for Jared Goff, but that was more for the draft picks the Rams sent to take on Goff’s contract. The Lions can get out of that contract in 2022, and at that point, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields will take the reins.

8. Carolina Panthers – Rashawn Slater, Northwestern (OT)

Maybe the Panthers go with a wide receiver, but they do have Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore, which makes offensive tackle more likely. Rashawn Slater from Northwestern is the second-best tackle in the draft.

9. Denver Broncos – Trey Lance, North Dakota State (QB)

The Broncos could trade up for a different quarterback, but chances are they will be pleased to get North Dakota State’s Trey Lance without having to trade away any assets.

10. Dallas Cowboys – Kwity Paye, Michigan (Edge)

Our first defensive selection of the draft goes to Dallas, where Michigan’s Kwity Paye will pair very nicely with DeMarcus Lawrence and give Dallas a top pass rush.

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Masters 2021 picks: Expert predictions

by WagerHome Blog on April 6, 2021

Gone from the calendar last April, the Masters is back in its traditional spot of opening up the spring. In just a few days, we will hear Jim Nantz welcome us to the “tradition unlike any other” as the best golfers in the world tee it up for the first major championship of the season.

It also marks the first time since November that we get to place wagers on a major championship, and these are your Masters betting favorites to begin the week.

2021 Masters Favorites

Dustin Johnson (+900)
Jordan Spieth (+1000)
Justin Thomas (+1000)
Bryson DeChambeau (+1100)
Jon Rahm (+1200)
Rory McIlroy (+1400)
Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
Brooks Koepka (+2500)
Patrick Reed (+2800)

The world’s number one player and the Masters champion when this tournament was played in November, Dustin Johnson is the obvious betting favorite here. He’s been in the top five at Augusta for five straight years, and it would be shocking if Johnson wasn’t in contention on Sunday.

A week ago, 2015 champion Jordan Spieth was paying at +1400 and was fifth on the list of favorites. On Sunday, however, he just won his first event in almost four years at the Valero Texas Open, and now he’s second on the list behind Johnson.

The other interesting story among the Masters betting favorites is Brooks Koepka. Just three weeks ago, he had surgery to repair a dislocated kneecap, and we weren’t sure he was going to be here. It’s why the second-place finisher in 2019 is only paying +2500.

Others to Watch

Sergio Garcia has gone from a Masters champion in 2017 to +5000 in 2021. That is good value for a player who right now is at the top of his game. He finished in the top 10 at The Players Championship and tied for fifth at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event.

Another golfer who is playing a lot better than his number would indicate is Matt Kuchar at +8000. He finished in third place at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play event and tied for 12th place at the Valero Texas Open. Kuchar has never won a major despite finishing in the top 10 at all four events, but he is definitely worth a look at such a good value.

A real dark horse, but one worth considering, is Si-woo Kim at +10000. He doesn’t have a great history at Augusta (21st in 2019), which is why he is paying so much. But he did win The American Express in January and finished in the top 10 at Sawgrass in March, which is why you should consider him.

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NCAA Final Four Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on April 1, 2021

It’s been an unusual NCAA Tournament, with the entire thing taking place in Indiana. But it has also been a fantastic NCAA Tournament, and now we’re down to the Final Four.

There was the single COVID-19 incident that resulted in VCU having to forfeit its first-round game with Oregon, but otherwise, we made it to the Final Four without any other hiccups and with a lot of great basketball.

Baylor Bears (-5.0) vs. Houston Cougars

As crazy as the Midwest Region got, with No. 1 Illinois falling to Loyola Chicago, No. 11 Syracuse marching to the Sweet 16, and No. 12 Oregon State going all the way to the Elite Eight, one of the pre-tournament favorites in Houston advanced to the Final Four.

The road to Houston’s first Final Four since 1984 and the days of Phi Slama Jama and Akeem Olajuwon (Hakeem since 1991) has not been terribly challenging. They are the first Final Four team to ever advance that far by only playing double-digit seeds.

That changes when they face the top seed in the South, Baylor, which is making its first Final Four appearance since 1950, when the tournament had just eight teams.

Baylor was knocked off its stride when it was forced to miss three weeks during the season because of COVID-19 protocols. But the top three-point shooting team in the country looks like its old 17-0 self and rolls into the final weekend with 26 wins, the second-most in the country.

Houston dominates the offensive glass in this one and keeps it close, but ultimately the Bears are too much. Baylor wins; Houston covers.

Gonzaga Bulldogs (-13.5) vs. UCLA Bruins

From the First Four to the Final Four has been the road for the UCLA Bruins. Unlike the other three teams in Indianapolis this weekend, the Bruins are regulars in the Final Four, with this being their 19th appearance.

UCLA likes to slow the pace and bore you into a loss, which is exactly how they knocked off the East’s top seed, Michigan, to get here and set up the improbable matchup with the nation’s No. 1 team Gonzaga.

The Bulldogs have been a team of destiny all season long. Not only have they not lost a single game all year, but they have won their last 27 games by double digits.

Not surprisingly, that is an NCAA Division I record. Here in the NCAA Tournament, Gonzaga’s wins have been by 43, 16, 18, and 19.

It’s hard to imagine a program in search of its first-ever national championship being this big of a favorite against a program with 11 national championships, but there aren’t many teams like this year’s Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Bulldogs win big, cover the spread, and roll into Monday’s final game.

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2021 MLB Futures Bets to Consider

by WagerHome Blog on March 30, 2021

The Major League Baseball season begins on Thursday, and a full 162-game schedule is the plan. The next season of baseball definitely looks brighter than the last season, so as always, at this time of spring, we want to get those MLB futures bets placed before the new campaign begins.

World Series Champion

Los Angeles Dodgers (+350)
New York Yankees (+550)
San Diego Padres (+900)
New York Mets (+1000)
Atlanta Braves (+1000)
Chicago White Sox (+1000)
Minnesota Twins (+1800)
Toronto Blue Jays (+2200)
Tampa Bay Rays (+2200)
Oakland Athletics (+2200)
Houston Astros (+2200)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are favored to repeat as champions, but is +350 worth the risk? To put it this way, are they really seven times more likely to win the World Series than last year’s American League champion Rays? Or the talented lineup of Toronto?

The Mets aren’t coming off a good 2020, but they are coming off a great offseason and may be worth a play at +1000.

MLB Win Totals

You can make MLB futures bets on the over/under on regular-season win totals for each team, and one of the most appealing bets is the Cardinals going over 86.0 wins.

The Cardinals haven’t finished below .500 since 2007, and since 2015, newly-acquired Nolan Arenado has averaged a WAR of 6.3. As the favorite to win a division that includes the Cubs and Pirates – the Pirates’ over/under on wins is 59.0 – the Cardinals should easily push for 90 wins.

Another bet to consider is the under on the White Sox and 89.5 wins. Chicago is good, but it just lost Eloy Jimenez for the season. The 23-year-old slugger was projected to hit 31 home runs in 2021.

Also, the Twins will give the White Sox a run for the division title, and both the Royals and Indians will be better than many think. The White Sox may get into the playoffs, but 90 wins will be tough to hit.

Home Run Leader

Mike Trout (+1200)
Pete Alonzo (+1200)
Joey Gallo (+1200)
Juan Soto (+1400)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1500)
Cody Bellinger (+1500)
Yordan Alvarez (+2000)
Bryce Harper (+2000)
Aaron Judge (+2000)
Giancarlo Stanton (+2000)

Mike Trout is an interesting favorite on this list. As good as he is, he’s never been a home run leader. In 2019 he hit a career-high 45 home runs, but the leader that year was Pete Alonzo with 53.

One bet to consider is Aaron Judge. When healthy, he is a 50-plus home run hitter. He just hasn’t been healthy since 2017.

However, Judge says that he’s changed his approach this offseason to body health and vows to be in the lineup all season long.

Pay Per Head Software

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Odds to Win Goodyear 400

Underdogs to Consider

Pay Per Head Software

Odds to Win Wells Fargo Championship

Wells Fargo – Best Value Underdogs

Pay Per Head Software

Kentucky Derby Positions and Odds

Darkhorse Candidates

Underdogs

Pay Per Head Software

It’s a Quarterback’s League

Teams Moving Up

The Miami Dolphins

Pay Per Head Software

Why Your Clients Will Love It

Why You as a Bookmaker Will Love It

Kentucky Derby Projected Field

Best Long Shot Bets

Pay Per Head Software

Top 10 NFL Draft Picks

Pay Per Head Software Provider

2021 Masters Favorites

Others to Watch

Pay Per Head Software

Baylor Bears (-5.0) vs. Houston Cougars

Gonzaga Bulldogs (-13.5) vs. UCLA Bruins

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World Series Champion

MLB Win Totals

Home Run Leader

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