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NCAA Tournament First Round Betting Picks

by WagerHome Blog on March 16, 2022

Not to take anything away from the First Four and their claims to the NCAA Tournament, but real March Madness bettors know that the action doesn’t truly gets started until Thursday and Friday when we get 32 first-round games in 36 hours and the guarantee of at least five crazy upsets and four amazing buzzer-beaters.

No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (+6.5)

We all know there is going to be at least one No. 12 seed to get a win in the first round. Since the field was expanded in 1985 and 12 seeds were added to the mix, they have won 51 games, including 17 games since 2010.

This year’s 12-seed to keep an eye is New Mexico State. The Aggies play great defense, and in all four games in which they were the underdog this season, they won the game outright. UConn is just 3-11 in their last 14 against the spread, and this Thursday’s game has all the makings of a New Mexico State upset.

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 St. Peter’s (+17.5)

We’re not going to go crazy over St. Peter’s and pick them to win this NCAA Tournament game. Kentucky is one of the favorites to win the entire tournament for a reason. And normally, a 17.5 spread wouldn’t be too much for a No. 2 seed in the first round, but St. Peter’s isn’t a normal opponent.

The Peacocks have won seven straight games and play good, slow-tempo defense. They won’t have the offense to seriously challenge Kentucky for the win, but their pace of play and forced turnovers will keep this game under 17.5.

No. 5 Houston (-8.5) vs. No. 12 UAB

Another 12-seed getting love is UAB because of their nearly 80 points per game and seven straight wins heading into Friday’s game. Don’t get caught up in the hype.

Houston is one of the best teams in the country, playing some of the best defense anywhere in college basketball, and for some reason, this team has fallen out of favor with some bettors.

They win by an average margin of 17 points, and as the Cougars have done in seven of their last eight games, they will cover this spread.

No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Iowa State (+4.5)

Iowa State racked up a number of losses at the end of the season, but losing to the likes of Baylor, and covering, isn’t as bad as the record looks. The Cyclones, when they’re going, can play excellent basketball.

But really, this pick is about LSU and the turmoil at the top. The Tigers struggled down the stretch even before they fired head coach Will Wade, but now they are a mess and primed for a first-round struggle.

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Valspar Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 15, 2022

The majority of the PGA Tour takes a breather this weekend after an extra-long five-day PLAYERS Championship was completed at Sawgrass over the weekend. For those in the field both last week and this, like betting favorite Justin Thomas, it’s just two off-days, then back at it at the Copperhead Course in Palm Harbor, Florida.

The field, however, isn’t completely bare. There are 20 of the top 50 golfers in the world teeing it up at Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, taking advantage of one of the final tuneups before we head to Augusta, Georgia, in three weeks.

Favorites to Win the Valspar Championship

Justin Thomas (+900)
Viktor Hovland (+1100)
Collin Morikawa (+1100)
Dustin Johnson (+1400)
Xander Schauffele (+1800)
Paul Casey (+1800)
Louis Oosthuizen (+1800)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2200)
Shane Lowry (+2200)
Sam Burns (+2200)

Looking at the favorite, Justin Thomas, some bettors might be scared off by his T33 at the PLAYERS last weekend. But already this season, he has five finishes T8 or better, and last year at the Valspar, he was T13. He’s playing solid golf, and he’s the best overall golfer in the field.

The player right behind Thomas on the favorites board might be the hottest player in the world, Norway’s Viktor Hovland. He’s ranked third in the world, he finished T9 at Sawgrass, he was T2 the week before that at the Arnold Palmer, and he was T4 at Riviera. That’s three straight top-10 finishes for a golfer who finished third at the Valspar last year, his one and only previous time playing this event.

If you prefer to focus on course history, there are two former winners among these top-10 favorites. Sam Burns, paying +2200, is the current defending champion. He shot a -17 last year, one off the Valspar Championship record, and won by three strokes.

Paul Casey, paying +1800, won back-to-back the two years prior to Burns. He’s also coming off a third-place finish at The PLAYERS, which pairs nicely with a T15 at The Genesis.

Longer Shots Worth a Look

If you’re looking to take a flier on a good value play, give Jason Kokrak a thought. He’s paying +4000 for a tournament win, and in his last three starts at the Valspar, he has finished eighth, second, and 13th. Prior to that run, he also had a seventh-place finish in 2015.

Adam Hadwin, at +6600, is paying even longer odds, and he’s an actual winner at the Valspar Championship. He held on to win by one stroke in 2017 after entering the final round with a four-stroke lead. He’s also coming off a T9 at Sawgrass.

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Ruoff Mortgage 500 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 9, 2022

We are in for another exciting race, Ruoff Mortgage 500. We’ve had three official races of the 2022 Cup season and three different winners, with Alex Bowman holding off Kyle Larson in the closing seconds last week to take home the win and keep Larson from winning for a second consecutive week.

But even more topsy-turvy than the rotating champions is what we’ve seen out of the top-10 here in the early going of this year. Through three races, we’ve had 25 different drivers finish in the top-10. That is the most through three races since 1973, and only five drivers off from the maximum possible of 30 drivers in three races.

Here today, gone tomorrow, has been the theme since Daytona.

Favorites to Win Ruoff Mortgage 500

Kyle Larson (+360)
Martin Truex, Jr. (+700)
Kyle Busch (+700)
Joey Logano (+800)
Denny Hamlin (+800)
Chase Elliott (+800)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
William Byron (+1400)
Kevin Harvick (+2000)
Alex Bowman (+2500)
Tyler Reddick (+2500)

Kyle Larson nearly won his second race of the season last week in Las Vegas, and he is the favorite to get it done this weekend in Phoenix. He is the best driver in NASCAR, but he’s also been one of the best in Phoenix. He has finished no worse than sixth place in his last six races here, and this was the site of his championship win last November.

At nearly double the payday, if you want to bet one of the favorites, Kyle Busch has the much better value. Sure, he’s chasing Larson as the best driver, and there’s no question that Larson is No. 1. But Busch has three wins in Phoenix, eight other top-five finishes, and a total of 22 top-10 finishes on the D-shaped oval.

Longer Shots to Consider

Yes, it feels like the Hudson Hornet was the king of NASCAR cars the last time Kevin Harvick won a race, but never discount him in Phoenix, and definitely don’t do it when he’s paying +2000.

His nine career wins in Phoenix are an incredible six more than any other active driver, and he currently has a 17-race streak of top-10 finishes at this raceway. In 12 of those 17 races, he finished in the top five.

At +3000, you might want to give Christopher Bell a look. He’s only raced at Phoenix four times, but his last two starts here were top-10 finishes.

He also finished top-10 in Las Vegas a week ago, and led for 32 laps of the race. That is a good sign that Bell may be ready to break into the victory column for the first time in more than a year.

Pay Per Head Software

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The Players Championship Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 8, 2022

Outside of Pebble Beach and Augusta, there may be no more recognizable course than the Pete Dye-designed TPC Sawgrass, the home of The Players Championship. Even if you’ve never actually played the course, without question, you have pictured yourself trying to hit the famous “Island Green” on 17.

And not only is the course great, the field is packed each and every year. At $20 million, it has the highest prize fund of any tournament in the world, it regularly attracts the full complement of top-50 players in the world, and it is often referred to as the PGA Tour’s unofficial fifth major.

But as good as the field is, The Players has never produced a repeat champion. Six players have won more than once – Jack Nicklaus, Fred Couples, Steve Elkington, Hal Sutton, Davis Love III, and Tiger Woods – but none of them won consecutively.

Favorites to win The Players Championship

Jon Rahm (+800)
Rory McIlroy (+1400)
Justin Thomas (+1400)
Collin Morikawa (+1600)
Viktor Hovland (+2000)
Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
Dustin Johnson (+2200)
Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
Cameron Smith (+2500)

Jon Rahm has finished in the top-three in two of his six starts in 2022, and he’s been in the top-10 in three of them. He has yet to post a win this year, but he’s the betting favorite at next month’s Masters, and he is the betting favorite here. For the record, in each of the tournaments he has played in 2022, Rahm has been on top of the favorites board.

Collin Morikawa has only played this event once, and he finished 41st. But he hasn’t finished worse than seventh in any event in 2022, and he’s got the exact kind of form you would expect from a future champion at Sawgrass.

Longshots to Consider

Sergio Garcia is past his prime, but at +8000, he is definitely worth a look. He’s a veteran of this course, having played it 21 times.

And last year, he actually had a two-shot lead following Thursday’s opening round before eventually finishing ninth on Sunday. He also rarely misses the cut, meaning that your +8000 bet should be around to make some noise in the final round.

Another longshot odds-wise is Brian Harman, paying +10000. But he only looks like a longshot on the favorites board. He finished T3 at The Players last year and T9 in 2019.

And this year, he has a T3 at The American Express to go along with a 14th place finish at the Phoenix Open. Good play at Sawgrass, good form this year, and a huge payday if he wins. What’s not to like?

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Pennzoil 400 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 3, 2022

We had an unexpected winner at Daytona, with Austin Cindric taking the checkered flag at the Daytona 500 as a rookie. He was 20th in the favorites board and paid +3100.

Last week at Wise Power 400, things returned to normal, with Kyle Larson winning the race and joining mainstays Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski and winners in 2022.

From Fontana, California, we go to Las Vegas, Nevada, and the Pennzoil 400, and not surprisingly, the betting world loves Larson to win again.

Favorites to Win Pennzoil 400

Kyle Larson (+350)
Chase Elliott (+700)
Joey Logano (+800)
Denny Hamlin (+800)
Ryan Blaney (+850)
Kyle Busch (+1000)
William Byron (+1200)
Martin Truex, Jr. (+1400)
Tyler Reddick (+1500)
Kevin Harvick (+1500)

Larson won this race a year ago and is coming off the win last week. Of course, he is the heavy favorite.

Joey Logano was a winner this year in Los Angeles and has two wins in Las Vegas, including two years ago. In the last six races in Las Vegas, Logo has led 15% of the laps and has four top-10 finishes to go along with his two wins. Overall he has 17 career starts in Vegas and has finished in the top-5 a total of six times.

Logano finished fifth last week in Fontana.

Like Logano, Denny Hamlin is paying +800, and he has a solid history in Las Vegas. At the race here last September, he was the winner, leading for 137 laps.

He was fourth at the Pennzoil 400 last March, and in September of 2020, he finished third. Overall, Hamlin has nine top-10 finishes at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Value Bets to Consider

Jumping off the board is Brad Keselowski paying +2500. He was second in Las Vegas a year ago, and three previous times in Las Vegas, he has taken the checkered flag.

He’s finished in the top-10 in 12 of his last 13 Las Vegas starts, and eight of those starts had him finishing in the top-five. Keselowski also won the first of the Bluegreen Vacations Duels at Daytona three weeks ago. Why he is only listed at +2500 is a mystery.

Daytona 500 winner Austin Cindric is paying +3000. He doesn’t have experience in Las Vegas, but that didn’t stop him in Daytona.

And while that win might have been flukey, he is a quality driver and followed it up with a 12th place finish in Fontana. He also had a nice showing at the L.A. Coliseum.

One last value play to look at is Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. at +6000. His most recent form in Las Vegas has been spotty, but it includes a third-place finish two years ago and a sixth-place finish in 2019.

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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on March 1, 2022

Right now, the PGA Tour is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get. And the same can be said for the upcoming tournament, the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Over the last five weeks, we have seen four first-time winners, and yes, that is a very unusual pace. We’ve played eight total tournaments in 2022, and in 2021 a total of 25 tournaments were played before there were four first-time winners.

So looking at the past can only get us so far in predicting who wins each week and who wins this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Orlando.

Favorites to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational

Jon Rahm (+750)
Rory McIlroy (+1000)
Scottie Scheffler (+1600)
Viktor Hovland (+1800)
Matthew Fitzpatrick (+2000)
Sung-Jae Im (+2200)
Will Zalatoris (+2500)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
Tyrrell Hatton (+2800)
Marc Leishman (+2800)

As is the case with any tournament that he enters, Jon Rahm is the favorite. He doesn’t have a win in 2022, but the six-time PGA Tour winner has three top-10 finishes this year and has twice finished in the top-five.

It’s Rahm’s first-ever visit to the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but Rory McIlroy is making his eighth straight appearance. He won in 2018 and has top-10 finishes in 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Two weeks ago, McIlroy played his first and only tournament of 2022 and finished T10 at the Genesis Invitational.

Third on the board is Scottie Scheffler, one of those four first-time winners we’ve had recently. He won at Phoenix and then followed that up with T7 at Riviera. He played the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2020 and finished 15th.

Best Value Bets

In the vein of first-time winners, Will Zalatoris is striking the ball well, and most of the golfing world thinks he’s overdue for his first win. He finished T6 at The American Express and second at the Farmers Insurance Open, and most importantly, he is paying +2500.

Adam Scott is paying +3500, and along with that big potential payday, he brings solid play of late and a good history at Bay Hill. He played strong golf at the Genesis two weeks ago, shooting a 66 in the final round and finishing T4. At the Arnold Palmer, he has a pair of third-place finishes, with the first coming in 2004 and the second coming in 2014.

At +5000, take a look at Jason Kokrak. He finished 2021 strong with a win at the Houston Open. He had a T17 at the Sony Open in January and was undone by a tough final round at Riviera. Before the final 18, he was tied for 12th. Last year at the Arnold Palmer, he finished in eighth, which was his fourth top-10 finish at this event.

Pay Per Head Software

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Favorites, Underdogs, and Darkhorses – Betting Odds to win NCAA Basketball National Championship

by WagerHome Blog on February 24, 2022

We are just over three weeks away from Selection Sunday, the date that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee fulfills dreams and breaks hearts.

There are some teams already guaranteed a spot in the dance, and they are favorites to be in the Final Four. While most of the rest of the field is hoping to try on Cinderella’s slipper for the three-week journey to the Final Four in New Orleans.

National Championship Favorites

Last weekend the NCAA Selection Committee released its current snapshot of what their top-16 looks like, and their favorites largely coincide with the betting favorites.

Gonzaga is the much-deserved top dog, currently paying +450. The Bulldogs are also the top-ranked team in the polls and by the Selection Committee. The second-ranked Auburn Tigers – in the eyes of the Selection Committee – is actually fourth in the current betting odds, paying +1000.

Kentucky was sixth in the released weekend bracket, but the Wildcats are actually second in betting odds, paying +800. The Wildcats from Arizona are the third-highest betting favorite, paying +850.

The Selection Committee gave one of its top seeds to Kansas, the same bracket where Kentucky is the No. 2 seed. But the Jayhawks are paying +1600 to win the National Championship, which is double the payout of Kentucky.

Final Four Underdogs

Tennessee is projected to be the third seed by the Selection Committee, but they are paying a whopping +5000 on a National Championship futures bet. For a team getting that much love from the powers that be and also has wins over North Carolina, Arizona, and Kentucky just over a week ago, that is an incredible value.

Likely, by the time the NCAA releases its full bracket, the odds on Tennessee will have dropped.

The Houston Cougars are in or near the top-10 in most of the various power rankings, but bettors haven’t seemed to notice. The first-place team in the American Athletic Conference is paying +4000.

Darkhorses Worth a Look

Connecticut is a top-20 team, the Huskies are in third place in the Big East, and they have wins over Auburn and Villanova. The win over Villanova was just this Tuesday – UConn’s fourth win in a row – and they are playing much better basketball than their +10000 odds would suggest.

Another excellent value play is Iowa, who is also playing its best basketball as the postseason nears. The Hawkeyes, paying +10000, have won five of their last six games and rank fourth in the nation in points scored per game. Iowa ranks first in the nation in assists to turnovers, and it’s that kind of mistake-free basketball that wins games in March.

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The Honda Classic Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on February 22, 2022

The field isn’t the best this week at PGA National. After every member of the world’s top-10 teed it up at Riviera, every member of world’s top-10 is taking his time in getting to Florida for a month of tournaments there. The Honda Classic is the first of four straight events in the Sunshine State, and none of the world’s best are playing.

It could be that rest is needed, or it could be that the course played as the third-most difficult non-major course on tour in 2021. At last year’s event, 270 balls found their way into the water, and with high winds in the forecast for this week, that number is expected to climb.

What that means is that in this year’s edition of The Honda Classic – everything can change on any given hole.

Favorites to Win The Honda Classic

Sungjae Im (+1200)
Daniel Berger (+1600)
Joaquin Niemann (+1800)
Louis Oosthuizen (+1800)
Billy Horschel (+2000)
Brooks Koepka (+2200)
Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
Shane Lowry (+2800)
Alex Noren (+3300)
Keith Mitchell (+3300)

Sungjae Im is your favorite, as the only member of this group of favorites who finished in the top-10 at last year’s tournament. He was tied for eighth at -5. He won here in 2020, and four weeks ago at the Farmers, he finished tied for sixth with a -13.

Daniel Berger has been a tough one to figure out in 2022, having withdrawn from Pebble Beach, even though he was the defending champion. Then Berger missed the cut at the Phoenix Open. But he also finished fifth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions with a -25 and was top-20 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Berger was also fourth at The Honda Classic in 2020, his last time in the event, and he has a runner-up at PGA National from 2015.

Alex Noren, paying +3300 is also a good value play. He recently tied for sixth at the Phoenix Open, and he’s a good par grinder on a tough course, which is exactly the kind of player who can get it done this week.

Longshots Worth a Look

Because of all the water, ball striking is key at PGA National. Jhonattan Vegas, who is paying +5000, has been the fourth-best ball-striker over the last 50 rounds. He also finished with a T4 at this event in 2017.

Mackenzie Hughes is another very good value play at +5000. He just had a T16 at Pebble Beach, and when he played at PGA National in 2020, he was the runner-up to Im’s tournament win.

Chris Kirk is also paying +5000 and is coming off a T14 at the Phoenix Open. He’s played The Honda Classic every year since 2011 and has finished as high as 12th.

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Betting Odds to Win Super Bowl LVII

by WagerHome Blog on February 16, 2022

The NFL has become a 12-month a year league, and so has NFL betting. No matter what time of year it is, and no matter how far away the next scheduled game is (or like now when we don’t even have a schedule), there are NFL bets to play.

Right now, the big bet is, of course, the winner of the next year’s Super Bowl, scheduled to be played in Glendale, Arizona, on February 12, 2023.

Favorites to Win Super Bowl LVII

Kansas City Chiefs (+750)
Buffalo Bills (+750)
Los Angeles Rams (+1000)
Dallas Cowboys (+1400)
San Francisco 49ers (+1400)
Cincinnati Bengals (+1400)
Green Bay Packers (+1600)
Baltimore Ravens (+2000)
Denver Broncos (+2000)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2200)
Tennessee Titans (+2200)

The Bills-Chiefs divisional round game in Kansas City was the best game of the 2021 postseason, and not surprisingly, with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen at the height of their powers, these are the two teams deemed most likely to win next year’s Super Bowl.

The defending champion Los Angeles Rams are next at +1000, and the top-rated team in the NFC. Question marks with Odell Beckham, Jr., Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Sean McVay are likely the reason they aren’t higher. Plus, they play in a division with the 49ers, who are one of three teams tied for fourth-most likely to win the Super Bowl.

Joining San Francisco at +1400 is the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals, as well as the Dak Prescott-led Dallas Cowboys.

One thing the Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Bengals, and Cowboys all have in common is a settled franchise quarterback. The Niners are the highest-ranked team without that luxury, and it’s also where the Packers find themselves at +1600. If Jordan Love is their quarterback in 2022, those odds should go way up.

Also of note, the Ravens should be healthy next season, and +2000 might be great value. And the Titans, with a healthy Derrick Henry, might also be a great play at +2200.

Fallen Playoff Teams

Notably off the favorites board are three teams coming off playoff appearances.

The Eagles are at +4000, which is probably a reflection of being in the Cowboys’ shadow, plus continued doubts about Jalen Hurts.

No more Ben Roethlisberger has cratered the Steelers outlook. They are paying just +5000 to win next year’s Super Bowl. It doesn’t help that they play the Bengals and Ravens twice.

And what’s happened to the Raiders? They were a play away from beating the Bengals in the AFC playoffs and don’t expect a major roster turnover, yet they too are only listed at +5000. If you’re looking for a good value bet, this is it.

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The Genesis Invitational Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on February 15, 2022

This stretch of golf to begin the season is always one of the highlights of the season. You get the majesty of Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach along the Pacific coast, the incredible crowds and atmosphere of Scottsdale, and the Phoenix Open, and now this week, we get the Genesis Invitational, which features some of the best golf in the world outside of the four major championships.

This weekend at Riviera all 10 of the world’s top-10 will be on the same course, playing one of the best events of the year. It’s also the first weekend of golf in a post-NFL world, and that makes it even more appealing for sports betting. If you are craving the best at their craft in a full-scale competitive showdown, the Genesis Invitational has you covered.

Favorites to Win the Genesis Invitational

Jon Rahm (+900)
Patrick Cantlay (+1100)
Dustin Johnson (+1600)
Justin Thomas (+1600)
Collin Morikawa (+1800)
Cameron Smith (+2000)
Rory McIlroy (+2000)
Xander Schauffele (+2000)
Hideki Matsuyama (+2200)
Victor Hovland (+2500)

Jon Rahm is the best player in the world, and he has a pair of top-10 finishes in the last three years at Riviera.

Patrick Cantlay is another obvious choice. He’s played four events in 2022, and he has four top-10 finishes and two top-fives, including a runner-up last week at the Phoenix Open. Cantlay was also a top-five finisher at Riviera in 2019.

Dustin Johnson is second all-time in money won at the Genesis, which includes a victory in 2017 and a pair of second-place finishes in 2014 and 2015. His 2022 started off rough, but a strong finish at the Saudi International last week, coupled with ten total top-10 finishes at Riviera, makes Johnson an appealing play.

Like Johnson, Justin Thomas is paying +1600, and he is also another solid play. He finished fifth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, eighth at the Phoenix Open, and was a second-place finisher in 2019 at Riviera. He famously had a four-shot lead in that Genesis before closing with a final round 75.

Other Golfers to Watch

Adam Scott is only paying +4000, and his 38th place finish at the Phoenix Open is a big reason why. But his history at Riviera is why you should ignore what he’s done on other courses. He’s won this event twice, including in 2020, and two other times he finished as the runner-up.

Bubba Watson is another player at +4000 and another former winner at Riviera that is worth a closer look. He won this tournament in 2014, 2016, and 2018, but unlike Adam Scott, Watson is playing good golf currently. He was a runner-up at the Saudi International and finished with four sub-par rounds at the Phoenix Open, finishing tied-for-14th.

Pay Per Head Software

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No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State (+6.5)

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 15 St. Peter’s (+17.5)

No. 5 Houston (-8.5) vs. No. 12 UAB

No. 6 LSU vs. No. 11 Iowa State (+4.5)

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win the Valspar Championship

Longer Shots Worth a Look

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Ruoff Mortgage 500

Longer Shots to Consider

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to win The Players Championship

Longshots to Consider

Pay Per Head Software Provider

Favorites to Win Pennzoil 400

Value Bets to Consider

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Arnold Palmer Invitational

Best Value Bets

Pay Per Head Software

National Championship Favorites

Final Four Underdogs

Darkhorses Worth a Look

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Favorites to Win The Honda Classic

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