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NHL Draft Player Props

by WagerHome Blog on May 9, 2023

On Monday, the Chicago Blackhawks were the big winners at the NHL Draft Lottery. They went into the night trailing both the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets for the best odds to win the lottery’s top prize, but it was Chicago that came out on top.

With that top pick, their first time selecting No. 1 overall since 2007, they will undoubtedly take 17-year-old phenom Connor Bedard. With the Regina Pats of the Western Hockey League this year, he led the league in scoring with 143 points.

Bedard also has helped the Canadian Under-20 National Team win two gold medals, and his 36 career points at the World Junior Hockey Championships is a new Canadian record. During this year’s gold medal run, he scored 23 points and was named the tournament’s MVP.

Bedard is the NHL draft pick. Even at only 17, he is already drawing comparisons to Connor McDavid of the Oilers and Sidney Crosby of the Pens. He has that kind of scoring ability. But who will go second to the Ducks? Who will go third to the Blue Jackets?

Those picks are not nearly as black-and-while as Bedard at No. 1.

NHL Draft Odds – Second Overall Pick

Adam Fantilli (-420)

There is no one in the NHL draft class like Bedard, but Adam Fantilli will be an excellent consolation prize for the Ducks if he is who they select. He won the Hobey Baker Award as a freshman at Michigan for being the NCAA’s best men’s hockey player this year. He is only 18, and he scored 63 points in 36 games.

Leo Carlsson (+680)

Leo Carlsson is a Swedish center who is also 18 and already 6-foot-3. In 15 international games this year for Sweden’s Under-20 National Team, he scored ten goals and had seven assists. His coaches and members of the media have compared him to Mats Sundin, a fellow Swede who was taken No. 1 overall in 1989.

Matvei Michkov (+730)

At one time, Matvei Michkov was a challenge to Bedard for the No. 1 overall NHL draft pick. Bedard has put distance between himself and the young Russian but at no fault of Michkov’s. He’s a great scorer who broke Alex Ovechkin’s record for being the youngest player to suit up for the Russian National Team at only 16.

Brayden Yager (+2800)

The last of the top-four for the second pick, and top-five overall, is one of the best shooters of the bunch in Brayden Yager. This past season with the Moose Jaw Warriors, he scored 28 goals and 78 points. Yager was on the gold medal-winning Canadian Under-18 team at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup in 2022 and scored nine points in the five games.

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Post-Spring Football Odds Have Georgia Set to Repeat as National Champion

by WagerHome Blog on May 4, 2023

All of the college football teams in the country have completed their spring practice, and most players who entered the transfer portal have found new homes. And in the wake of that, we have a new top-25 preseason poll, and the odds on the national championship winner have been updated.

To no one’s surprise, the Georgia Bulldogs lead the way in both.

Georgia Bulldogs (+225)

Georgia has firmly supplanted Alabama as the premiere program in the country. Even though they continue to lose players to the NFL, this year’s Georgia Bulldogs team will have as many as 16 players returning who started at least one game in 2022.

Stetson Bennett and his two Georgia national championships are gone, but new Georgia quarterback Carson Beck might even be better.

Alabama (+500)

Alabama is all the way down in fifth place in the top-25, but they draw considerably shortened odds in the national championship picture because of history and reputation. The line of succession, from Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, and Bryce Young, is now suddenly not so certain. That question mark at QB may hold them back.

Ohio State (+600)

Ohio State is another team replacing a top quarterback who is off to the NFL, and many of the best players on their offensive line have also left Columbus for the pros. Kyle McCord is in his third year with the Buckeyes, and he is your likely starter at quarterback. But Devin Brown still has a chance to win the job by September.

Michigan (+1000)

Michigan is ranked No. 3 in the early polls, but is only fourth in the national championship picture. That is largely because despite playing in the College Football Playoff for two straight years, and beating Ohio State for two straight years, they continue to get worked in the national semifinals.

USC (+1400)

Caleb Williams is all you need to know about USC and why they are paying the fifth shortest odds to win the national championship. The quarterback is the favorite to repeat as the Heisman Trophy winner, and he will have the Trojans in the mix to make their first appearance in the College Football Playoff.

USC is only ranked 12th in the preseason polls right now because their defense was atrocious last year, and it appears to still be bad in 2023. But Williams is a marquee player and marquee name, and he is driving their odds down.

The last time USC was in the top-5 in the final AP poll was 2011.

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Kentucky Derby Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on May 2, 2023

What a Saturday to be a king. In London King Charles III gets his crown, and the sport of kings takes center stage on this side of the Pond with the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby. Instead of a crown, the winner at Churchill Downs gets a blanket of roses, and horse racing immortality.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds

1. Hit Show (30-1)
2. Verifying (15-1)
3. Two Phil’s (12-1)
4. Confidence Game (20-1)
5. Tapit Trice (5-1)
6. Kingsbarns (12-1)
7. Reincarnate (50-1)
8. Mage (15-1)
9. Skinner (20-1)
10. Practical Move (10-1)
11. Disarm (30-1)
12. Jace’s Road (15-1)
13. Sun Thunder (50-1)
14. Angel of Empire (8-1)
15. Forte (3-1)
16. Raise Cain (50-1)
17. Derma Sotogake (8-1)
18. Rocket Can (30-1)
19. Lord Miles (30-1)
20. Continuar (50-1)

Trainer Todd Pletcher has three horses at this year’s Kentucky Derby. Two of them are running alongside each other, with Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns breaking from the fifth and sixth starting gates. His highest-rated horse, and the highest-rated in the field, is Forte at 3-1 and out the 15th gate.

Brad Cox has four horses in this year’s Derby. Breaking next to Forte is Angel of Empire at 8-1. Jace’s Road is 15-1 out of the 12th gate, Hit Show is on the rail and running at 30-1, with Verifying next to him at 15-1.

Brad Cox won at Churchill Downs in the controversial 2021 race. That was when Bob Baffert’s Medina Spirit crossed the line first, but was later disqualified, making the Cox-trained Mandaloun the winning horse. Todd Pletcher won the Kentucky Derby in 2017 with Always Dreaming and in 2010 with Super Saver.

Other top horses for this Saturday include Derma Sotogake, where Hidetaka Otonashi looks to become the first Japanese trainer to win the Kentucky Derby. Continuar is also a Japanese horse that has been running in the UAE, trained by Yoshito Yahagi. But he is a much longer shot than Derma Sotogake and Otonashi.

Also keep your eye on Practical Move, the winner at the Santa Anita Derby and trained by Tim Yakteen. As an assistant to Baffert, Yakteen was a part of three Derby winners – Silver Charm, Real Quiet, and War Emblem. Last year and this year, with Baffert on suspension, Yakteen has been minding the barn and running at Churchill Downs on his own.

Of course, remember what happened last year without Baffert in the field. Rich Strike, at 80-1, became the second biggest underdog winner in Derby history. Perhaps one of the longshots in this race can also make it to the wire in first place.

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Early Look at the PGA Championship

by WagerHome Blog on April 27, 2023

We are just three weeks from golf’s second major of the season, the PGA Championship. It will be played this year at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York, the site of this same tournament ten years ago.

The winner on the East Course in 2013 was Jason Dufner. Followed by Jim Furyk, Henrik Stenson, and Jonas Blixt. Of the golfers who finished in the top 10 at that event, only Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, and Adam Scott are still in the top 100 of the World Golf Rankings 10 years later.

The biggest news since the Masters earlier this month was the surgery that Tiger Woods had on his ankle. It was to address post-traumatic arthritis that is a result of his car accident in 2021. There is no official word from Woods’ camp, but this kind of surgery typically comes with a 12-week recovery at a minimum, meaning that we have likely seen the last of Woods in 2023.

However, as you can see from the early odds board, the PGA Championship will not be lacking in star power or great golf.

Favorites to Win the PGA Championship

Jon Rahm (+900)
Rory McIlroy (+1000)
Scottie Scheffler (+1000)
Justin Thomas (+1400)
Jordan Spieth (+1800)
Brooks Koepka (+1900)
Xander Schauffele (+2000)
Cameron Smith (+2000)
Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
Collin Morikawa (+2200)

For the foreseeable future, the big three, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, and Scottie Scheffler, are going to be bunched at the top of any tournament hosting all three. Rahm is, of course, the Masters champion, McIlroy is a four-time major champion, and he has twice won the PGA, and Scheffler is the reigning PGA Tour Player of the Year.

There are plenty of other great golfers on the Tour and a lot of potential winners for next month at Oak Hill. But Rahm, McIlroy, and Scheffler are a cut above the rest at the PGA Championship!

If you’re looking to wager on someone outside of the big three, Justin Thomas is a good choice. He is the defending champion at this event, beating Will Zalatoris at Southern Hills in a playoff.

Of you could wager on two-time PGA champion Brooks Koepka, who also just finished T2 at the Masters. At +1900, he’s paying more than twice what you get on a bet on Rahm, making Koepka a great value play.

Another golfer with great value is Collin Morikawa at +2200. He was the PGA Champion in 2020, and he’s coming off a T10 earlier this month at the Masters.

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NFL Draft Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on April 25, 2023

The biggest sporting event of the week is Thursday’s NFL Draft, which is expected to have more than 300,000 fans in attendance at Kansas City’s Union Station, and another 10-plus million people watching on television.

The Aaron Rodgers trade has been completed, and it will change things for Thursday and Friday. The two teams swap first round picks, giving Green Bay the No. 13 pick and the Jets the No. 15 pick.

The Packers also get a second round pick (No. 42), a sixth round pick (No. 207), and a second round pick in 2024 that will move to a first round pick if Rodgers plays 65% of the snaps.

Along with the QB in question, the Jets get Green Bay’s fifth round pick this year (No. 170).

With at least one big draft day trade off the table, the betting markets are heating up.

NFL Draft – First Overall Pick

Bryce Young (-2000)
C.J. Stroud (+900)
Anthony Richardson (+1500)

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young is now the heavy favorite to go No. 1 overall to Carolina. Just a couple of weeks ago, this was supposed to be a close race.

Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud is now playing +900, and Florida QB Anthony Richardson is third at +1500. No one else is a real possibility.

NFL Draft – Second Overall Pick

Will Levis (-130)
Tyree Wilson (+240)
C.J. Stroud (+275)
Will Anderson (+285)
Anthony Richardson (+1800)

What is happening at No. 2, the pick currently owned by the Texans? There was talk that Houston would skip on a quarterback and take the best defensive player available, which was going to be Will Anderson from Alabama. But now Texas Tech EDGE Tyree Wilson is above him, and Kentucky quarterback Will Levis has somehow risen to the top.

NFL Draft – Third Overall Pick

C.J. Stroud (+230)
Tyree Wilson (+250)
Will Anderson (+250)
Paris Johnson Jr. (+350)
Anthony Richardson (+500)
Will Levis (+900)

The Arizona Cardinals currently own the No. 3 overall pick, so if Stroud really does go here, it is likely to be after a trade. But Arizona has a lot of needs, so Wilson, Anderson, or offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr. would all make sense.

NFL Draft – Quarterbacks Taken in First Round

Over 4.5 (-200)
Under 4.5 (+250)

We can get to four first round quarterbacks quite easily, with Young, Stroud, Richardson, and Levis. If there is going to be a fifth quarterback taken, it would likely be Hendon Hooker from Tennessee or Tanner McKee from Stanford.

Pay Per Head Software

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Geico 500 2023 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on April 20, 2023

From the short tracks of Bristol and Martinsville, NASCAR heads back to big racing, with a stop at the Talladega Superspeedway for the Geico 500.

We go from the half-mile track at Martinsville, and an average speed win of 75 MPH, to the 2.66 miles track at Talladega, where last October, the winning average speed was 153.5 MPH.

It’s a different kind of racing, and the variety from week to week is what tests these drivers and pushes them to the limit.

Favorites to Win Geico 500

Joey Logano (+1000)
Ryan Blaney (+1200)
Chase Elliott (+1400)
Denny Hamlin (+1400)
Brad Keselowski (+1400)
William Byron (+1600)
Ross Chastain (+1600)
Kyle Busch (+1800)
Kyle Larson (+1800)
Christopher Bell (+1800)
Bubba Wallace (+1800)

Last week Joey Logano fell off the lead lap twice but still battled back for a second-place finish. He said after the race, “There are some days that a second-place finish leaves you angry. This is not one of those days.”

Logano is the favorite this week on a track that was unkind to him in 2022, with a 32nd-place finish in April and a 27th-place finish in October. He does, however, have three career wins at Talladega.

Ryan Blaney doesn’t yet have a win this season, but four times he has finished in the top 10. Traditionally he has raced well on superspeedways, with an eighth-place finish at Daytona and a fourth-place finish there in 2022. He was the runner-up at Talladega last October, and he won on this track in 2019 and 2020.

That race in Talladega last October was won by Chase Elliott, who’s making just his second start since returning from a broken leg. In his return last week at Martinsville, he finished in 10th place. He was the runner-up in California in the race before he got injured.

Best Geico 500 Value Bets

The betting curve for this race is pretty flat, with no favorites going for less than +1000. That leaves good value at the back end, like +2800 for Erik Jones. He’s finished in the top 10 in five of the last six races at Talladega and has led for 68 laps in those five.

Kevin Harvick is a bit of an afterthought when racing at Talladega. He hasn’t won here since 2010. But at +2800, and with three top-10 finishes in his last four races here, including a fourth-place finish in 2021, he’s worth a look at that number.

Pay Per Head Software

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Zurich Classic of New Orleans 2023 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on April 18, 2023

The individual grind of the PGA Tour takes a break this week with a rare team event on the schedule. The Zurich Classic of New Orleans is a mixed-format team tournament with two days of best ball and two days of fourball.

It can be a little bit of a challenge to dial in on which pairs of players will mesh well together for the four days of golf, and that means that, quite often, you can find good value in the wagers that you place.

Favorites to Win Zurich Classic of New Orleans 2023

Xander Schauffele/Patrick Cantlay (+300)
Collin Morikawa/Max Homa (+650)
Sungjae Im/Keith Mitchell (+1100)
Si Woo Kim/Tom Kim (+1400)
Sam Burns/Billy Horschel (+1800)
Kurt Kitayama/Taylor Montgomery (+2200)
Sahith Theegala/Justin Suh (+2200)
Wyndham Clark/Beau Hossler (+2200)
Matt Fitzpatrick/Alex Fitzpatrick (+2800)

Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay are the defending champions at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans, and they carry the highest world rankings of any of the pairs. Schauffele is fifth in the world, and Cantlay is fourth. The pairing of Collin Morikawa and Max Homa is currently ranked 13th and seventh, respectively.

It is not surprising that those teams are the two favorites and are separated from the rest of the field by a significant amount.

Sungjae Im is ranked 17th in the world, and he is teaming up with 50th-ranked Keith Mitchell. Im just finished seventh at the Heritage, and he teams nicely with Mitchell.

Im is one of the better golfers around the green, while Mitchell is one of the Tour’s better drivers. Both have played at this event before, but this is the first time they have played as a team.

Sam Burns and Billy Horschel also deserve consideration at +1800. In two previous team-ups at this event, they finished second and fourth. They’ve also both won at other Pete Dye-designed courses as individuals. Burns was T15 at the Heritage last week.

Best Value Bets

Davis Riley and Nick Hardy are at +4000, and both played well at this event a year ago. They were working with different teammates then – Riley with Will Zalatoris and Hardy with Curtis Thompson – and the Riley/Zalatoris team finished fourth.

Sam Ryder and Doc Redman are probably two golfers you’ve never wagered but give them a look. They’re paying +5000 because neither has ever won on Tour, and neither player is in the top 100 of the world rankings. But, as a team, they played this event last year, and they finished third.

Ryder has a recent third-place finish at the Valero Texas Open, and Redman was 16th at the Valspar.

Pay Per Head Software

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NOCO 400 Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on April 13, 2023

The NOCO 400 Cup Series is in Martinsville this week after last week’s run on the dirt in Bristol. Christopher Bell finally broke into the winner’s circle after five top-five finishes this season, and he is one of the top picks to make some noise at the NOCO 400.

Favorites to Win NOCO 400

William Byron (+600)
Christopher Bell (+650)
Chase Elliott (+700)
Denny Hamlin (+750)
Kyle Larson (+800)
Martin Truex Jr. (+850)
Ryan Blaney (+1100)
Joey Logano (+1200)
Kyle Busch (+1400)
Ross Chastain (+1600)

William Byron had back-to-back wins in Las Vegas and Phoenix, and he was fifth at COTA three weeks ago. He also won at Martinsville 12 months ago, and he has three other top-five finishes at this track. He is a solid choice as the favorite.

Last week’s winner, Christopher Bell, is next on the favorites board at +650. When the playoffs rolled through Martinsville last October it was Bell who took the win then, putting him into the Championship 4. The rest of his history at this track is pretty lukewarm, but at the moment he’s the hottest driver in the Cup Series.

Martin Truex Jr. is a little down the board with the sixth shortest odds, and he wasn’t great at this track in 2022. But he won here in 2019, 2020, and 2021, and nine times he has finished in the top-five in Martinsville. His win in 2019 was one of the most dominant we’ve ever seen, with him leading for 464 of the 500 laps.

Ross Chastain has four top-10 finishes in his eight races this season, and three times he has been in the top-five. Last year at Martinsville he finished fifth in April and fourth in October.

Best Value Bets

Give Alex Bowman a closer look at +2500. He won the NOCO 400 playoff race here in 2021, and he has a pair of sixth-place finishes here in 2020. He’s also been running well of late, finishing eighth at Richmond and third at COTA.

Brad Keselowski is paying +2500 because of two bad results here last year. But in that October race, he actually finished fourth, but was disqualified after a post-race inspection found him just short of the minimum weight. If you include that as a fourth-place finish, that is 12 top-five finishes in his last 16 races at Martinsville, which includes a pair of wins.

Austin Dillon is paying +5000, but he was third at NOCO 400 last year, and he has two other top-five finishes at Martinsville.

He’s also coming off a third-place finish last week at Bristol.

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RBC Heritage Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on April 11, 2023

Golf’s biggest day, and one of the biggest comebacks in major championship history, is in the books. But just because the Masters is a few days behind us, there is still plenty of great RBC Heritage golf coming up this weekend.

The Harbour Town Golf Links is one of the best courses on the RBC Heritage PGA Tour, and the field that takes part just one week after the season’s first major is always stocked with great golfers. For Jon Rahm, this RBC Heritage is the first tournament in which he will be introduced as Masters champion. He is not, however, the favorite to win in Hilton Head.

Favorites to Win RBC Heritage Betting Preview

Scottie Scheffler (+850)
Jon Rahm (+900)
Patrick Cantlay (+1100)
Collin Morikawa (+1800)
Jordan Spieth (+2000)
Cameron Young (+2000)
Xander Schauffele (+2500)
Viktor Hovland (+2500)
Tony Finau (+2500)
Sungjae Im (+2500)
Justin Thomas (+2500)

The Masters’ favorites were led by the trio of Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Rory McIlroy. Rory isn’t teeing it up this weekend, but the other two are, and not surprisingly, they have the shortest odds heading into the tournament.

It was an emotional win for Rahm at Augusta, and the thought is that it will be easier for Scheffler to get focused for this weekend. He won the Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship, and he was just T10 at the Masters.

Jordan Spieth was the winner here last year, and if you are wondering if Masters success leads to Heritage success, the answer is not necessarily. Spieth failed to make the cut at last year’s Masters, but he lifted the trophy at Harbour Town. It’s also worth remembering this year that some at the Masters played as many as 30 holes on Sunday. Perhaps players out of contention in Augusta will be better rested this week.

Cameron Young just finished T7 at the Masters, and he is now working with the same caddy that worked with Webb Simpson when he won here in 2020. Does that give Young an edge? He hasn’t won yet this season, but he did just finish second at the WGC-Match Play.

Best Value Bets

Matt Fitzpatrick is just out of the top 10 at +2800, but he should be higher on your list of pre-tournament favorites. He was T4 here in 2021, and he just finished T10 at the Masters.

Matt Kuchar is also deserving of your attention. He is well rested, having not played at Augusta. He’s also playing great golf, with a T9 at the WGC-Match Play and T3 at the Valero Texas Open. Add in his four top-five finishes at Harbour Town and last year’s third-place finish, and he is a great buy at +4500.

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Food City Dirt Race Betting Preview

by WagerHome Blog on April 5, 2023

We had super speedways, road races, and the short track last week in Richmond. Now NASCAR races on the short track of Food City Dirt Race Bristol with a twist. We’re racing on dirt this Sunday at the Food City Dirt Race. It’s 250 laps on the half-mile track, and it’s an event unlike any other on the NASCAR Cup Series calendar.

Favorites to Win Food City Dirt Race

Kyle Larson (+550)
Tyler Reddick (+600)
Christopher Bell (+650)
William Byron (+1000)
Joey Logano (+1000)
Chase Briscoe (+1000)
Kyle Busch (+1200)
Ryan Blaney (+1500)
Ross Chastain (+1500)
Denny Hamlin (+1800)

William Byron was a back-to-back winner in the Cup Series the first two Sundays in March, and now Kyle Larson is hoping to duplicate that feat the first two Sundays in April. He won last week on the short track in Richmond, and he was a top-five finisher at this race last year, leading a total of 27 laps before finishing in fourth place.

Tyler Reddick was a winner a couple of weeks ago at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, the third road course win of his career. In two previous races on the dirt at Bristol, he had a seventh-place finish in 2021 and a second-place finish in 2022.

In that race last year, he was leading in the final lap, got spun out by Chase Briscoe, who was making a move for the win, and that allowed Kyle Busch to sneak in for the victory.

Speaking of Briscoe and Busch, the two other drivers involved in that wild finish at last year’s race, oddsmakers have them in the mix on the favorites board for this weekend’s rematch. Busch has nine total victories at Bristol, with that one coming on the dirt.

The other Food City Dirt Race winner on the dirt track in Bristol was Joey Logano, in 2021. He was a winner in Atlanta three weeks ago, and on the short track in Richmond last week, he finished seventh.

Best Value Bets

Daniel Suarez is paying +2500, and he deserves your attention. In 2021 he moved up from 18th at the start of the race, finishing in fourth place. Last year he was the 12th place finisher on the Food City Dirt Race, and he has led at this race for a total of 64 laps.

Michael McDowell is well down the board at +8000 to win the race, but he’s also paying +2000 for a top-three finish and +1000 to finish top-five. Why that matters to you in that he finished 12th here in 2021, and McDowell improved that to ninth in 2022. He’s also coming off a sixth-place finish last week in Richmond.

Pay Per Head Software

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NHL Draft Odds – Second Overall Pick

Adam Fantilli (-420)

Leo Carlsson (+680)

Matvei Michkov (+730)

Brayden Yager (+2800)

Pay Per Head Software

Georgia Bulldogs (+225)

Alabama (+500)

Ohio State (+600)

Michigan (+1000)

USC (+1400)

Pay Per Head Software

Kentucky Derby Post Positions and Odds

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win the PGA Championship

Pay Per Head Software

NFL Draft – First Overall Pick

NFL Draft – Second Overall Pick

NFL Draft – Third Overall Pick

NFL Draft – Quarterbacks Taken in First Round

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Geico 500

Best Geico 500 Value Bets

Pay Per Head Software

Favorites to Win Zurich Classic of New Orleans 2023

Best Value Bets

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